MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Tuesday, June 23
The sizzling was going to stop eventually, and last night I logged my first 0-for-3 at the plate in a while. Willson Contreras and Max Muncy still recorded doubles, but the unforgiving nature of home run predictions today is that it's clear the fence or bust.
I'm still up over five units across the past two weeks, and we'll turn to Pete Crow-Armstrong to lead off my MLB home run picks while trying to make yesterday only a minor setback.
The summer of PCA could just be starting, and doing so in truly explosive fashion.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds June 23
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong home run (+360 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.72u | A scorching slugger meets a struggling Kodai Senga in his second start off the IL. |
| Gunnar Henderson home run (+333 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.67u | Draws Ryan Johnson and his 12.83 ERA. |
| Tyler Soderstrom home run (+610 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 1.11u | Fares well against lefties, and Robbie Ray has given up 14 homers. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.5 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+360)
Crow-Armstrong is white hot while posting a bonkers 1.411 OPS in June. That includes clubbing nine home runs during the month already with still a week to go.
He draws a lefty tonight in Kodai Senga. But Crow-Armstrong has shown he can keep slugging away just fine against lefties, as the outfielder has put up an .826 OPS against southpaws.
Senga is far from threatening too, especially in just his second start off the IL. He sports a bloated 9.00 ERA, with an HR/9 of 2.6. He leans heavily on his cutter, and Crow-Armstrong is slugging .636 against that pitch.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Hitting with authority
Crow-Armstrong's hard-hit percentage has risen considerably compared to last year, shifting from 41.6% to 51.2%, according to Baseball Savant.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Gunnar Henderson (+333)
It's the ideal time to ride along with the better version of Gunnar Henderson, who's put a slow start behind him with his .832 OPS in June compared to a .629 in May.
There are still improvements to be made for Henderson, but his career-best air pull rate of 25.7% is encouraging. He's leaning into pull power, as his previous high was 15.8%, and it's showing up with his 16 home runs.
He now gets to feast on the Angels' Ryan Johnson, who's been repeatedly shelled during his limited starts this season. That includes giving up five long balls across only 13 1/3 innings (an HR/9 of 3.4), and opposing hitters are slugging .680 off his sinker, the righty's most-used pitch.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🤑 More MLB props
Want more ways to cash in today? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today.
Home run pick: Tyler Soderstrom (+610)
Soderstrom is getting longer odds than usual tonight in part because the lefty is facing a southpaw in Robbie Ray.
But he fares just fine against lefties. He's actually slugging better against left-handers than righties at .487 compared to .467. The masher has also clubbed six of his 13 homers against a lefty, and it sure helps today that Soderstrom is facing a highly vulnerable one in Robbie Ray.
He's given up 14 dingers, leading to his HR/9 rising from 1.1 last year to 1.6 now, which is a product of a barrel rate resting in the eighth percentile.
There is the Oracle Park factor here, as both the dimensions and wind off the bay suppress home runs. Still, between the elements in his favor and Ray's homer-prone ways, Soderstrom is more than worth a sprinkle.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB Network
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Pete Crow-Armstrong home run (+340)
- Gunnar Henderson home run (+333)
- Tyler Soderstrom home run (+610)
Best odds: +12498 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 2.5u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 49-140-2 | -2.44 units β | -3.5% β |
| Home run picks | 30-93-0 | 0.27 units β | -0.01% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-32 | 0.78 units β | 1.18% β |
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