⚾ MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Wednesday, June 24
My dinger-less run lasted a whole day, with another Pete Crow-Armstrong blast cashing yesterday at +360. Combine that deep shot in my home run predictions today with nailing a +476 SGP as part of our Braves vs. Padres prediction, and the bankroll keeps building.
I'll look to keep the momentum going in my MLB home run picks while leading off with the most tantalizing matchup featured Wednesday.
The 2026 version of Aaron Nola is getting pummeled more than ever, with lefties really teeing off. Trying to get James Wood out could end badly fast.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds June 24
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood home run (+312 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.62u | Aaron Nola is getting demolished generally, and especially against lefties. |
| Corbin Carroll home run (+470 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.94u | Don't fear a lefty being on the mound, as Carroll thrives against same-sided pitching. |
| Daulton Varsho home run (+474 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.95u | On the upswing, with two doubles and a homer last night. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.51 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: James Wood (+312)
Never miss a chance to target Nola.
He now sports a career-worst HR/9 of 1.8, which is largely a product of his four-seamer getting absolutely scorched at every turn due to its mediocre velocity.
Nola's heater comes with a .406 batting average allowed and astounding .828 slugging. Yet he throws it 28% of the time to lefties, which is why the veteran is giving up a .909 OPS to left-handed hitters.
And tonight he's facing the current final boss of lefty power hitters. Wood sits in the 100th percentile in expected slugging, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Seeking heat
Wood is destroying almost anything and everything while posting the ninth-best OPS in MLB (.923). But he's the last hitter you want to throw a meatball heater toward, as Wood is producing a .709 expected slugging against fastballs.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Corbin Carroll (+470)
Corbin Carroll doesn't stumble against same-sided pitching. He does very much the opposite, as the lefty slugger boasts a soaring 1.123 OPS against southpaws, far higher than his .804 against righties.
Which is why you pounce on the opportunity when he's facing a homer-prone lefty, and that's certainly the case tonight.
The Cardinals' Matthew Liberatore's HR/9 rests at a bloated 1.9 after his 15 deep shots allowed. The thing about frequently giving up loud contact is that those detonations often end up in the seats, and Liberatore's average exit velocity permitted of 91.9 mph is the 11th-worst leaguewide.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🤑 More MLB props
Want more ways to cash in today? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today.
Home run pick: Daulton Varsho (+474)
Daulton Varsho is notoriously streaky, and he's now put up a 1.329 OPS over the past week and a 1.027 in June. The latter towers high above his .775 during May.
He's nearly a dead pull hitter whose air pull rate was at 29% or higher during each of the past two seasons. Varsho knows who he is and leans into that, with the lefty looking to hook his pitch over the right-field fence. That's translated to a 60.9% hard-hit rate against four-seamers this season.
It's a fine time then to face the struggling Mike Burrows, the Astros' hurler whose HR/9 sits at 2.0 with a 5.79 ERA, and he's giving up a .977 OPS to lefties. A fastball he throws 33% of the time to left-handed hitters is also getting punished for a .744 slugging percentage.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- James Wood home run (+312)
- Corbin Carroll home run (+464)
- Daulton Varsho home run (+474)
Best odds: +13237 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 2.5u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 52-144-2 | -1.40 units β | -1.9% β |
| Home run picks | 31-95-0 | 0.05 units β | 0.19% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-33 | 0.76 units β | 1.12% β |
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