Braves vs. Padres Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Tuesday, June 23

The pitching matchup is key to my Braves vs. Padres prediction ahead of first pitch tonight from Petco Park at 9:40 p.m. ET (ESPN), as the two hurlers involved give a whole lot of free passes and liftoffs.

It's JR Ritchie vs. Griffin Canning, with the latter possibly used behind an opener. He seems destined to get the bulk role, and the vulnerability of both and the base traffic they allow makes this game a key one to target.

That's why I'm focusing on two of the Braves' sluggers with my MLB picks. Atlanta is the -116 moneyline favorite.

⚾ Braves vs. Padres picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.20 units | Max profit: 2.89 units

🏆 Who will win Braves vs. Padres?

A relatively high-scoring affair is coming due to the issues both starting pitchers are enduring when it comes to the strike zone, and keeping the ball out of the seats. In the end, the Braves are far better built to prevail during that sort of a slugfest.

Score prediction: Braves 6, Padres 4

💰 Braves vs. Padres prediction & best bet

Over 8.5 (-104)

The pitching matchup today is so tantalizing for Over bettors.

Ritchie has given up five earned runs in two of his last three starts. That recent sputtering is the product of severely lacking command. The result has been plenty of baserunners due to a sky-high 5.3 BB/9, and an HR/9 of 1.6 as balls leak over the plate.

Then there's Canning, who seems likely to get a bulk role tonight for San Diego, if not start. His BB/9 is even worse at 5.4, and Canning's hard-hit rate allowed of 50.4% is the ninth-worst MLB-wide.

🔥 Best Braves vs. Padres player prop bet

Matt Olson 2+ total bases (+111)

Matt Olson possesses the power to thrive anywhere, but another level seems to be unlocked when he's away from home. Petco Park isn't exactly a hitter's haven either, but it's significant nonetheless that Olson's OPS at home of .751 is far lower than his .995 on the road.

That's a mighty fine starting point here. Then there's another layer to Canning's woes, as his struggles reach new heights against lefty mashers like Olson. The righty is allowing a .968 OPS to left-handed hitters, and a .566 to righties.

Canning's tendency to give up blistering contact also pairs well with Olson, whose average exit velocity of 93.1 mph rests in the 95th percentile leaguewide.

💣 Braves vs. Padres home run prediction

Michael Harris home run (+409)

Some of the same thinking applies to Harris regarding Canning's frequent crumbling against lefties, as the outfielder with 14 home runs adds to Atlanta's left-handed power.

But in addition to owning a hard-hit percentage (52%) and expected slugging (.551) both in the 94th percentile or better, Harris also does significant damage against one of Canning's main weapons he tries to use against lefties.

That's his changeup, which he throws 30% of the time to lefties, and Harris is posting a .351 batting average, .669 expected slugging, and 48.5% hard-hit rate against that offering.

🚀 Braves vs. Padres same-game parlay

The alluring pitching matchup is still leading us to stay with the Over as the lead play here. Then I'm mixing in a more conservative way to target Harris, and leaning on Olson to capitalize on one of what should be plenty of run-producing opportunities for the Braves given Canning's wayward command.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 27.

💡 How I'm betting Braves vs. Padres: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

This matchup is all about the starting pitching woes. That should be your focus here, even if the Padres' lineup has been sputtering, and even if the Braves are without some star power.

Both starters are highly homer-prone and allow plenty of base-path traffic, so don't be hesitant to put down a full unit on both the game and player prop.

📊 Live Braves vs. Padres odds

The Braves are unsurprisingly getting most of the attention from moneyline bettors, with Atlanta receiving 75% of the bets through DraftKings, no doubt due to Griffin's expected workload.

However, there's a near-even split in the action on both the run line (55% to the Padres) and total (52% to the Under). The latter is significant for us, as that means it's unlikely the number shifts higher as first pitch nears.

📈 Braves vs. Padres betting trends

🚑 Braves vs. Padres injuries

📺 How to watch Braves vs. Padres

• Date: Tuesday, June 23
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Braves starter: JR Ritchie (1-2, 4.54 ERA)
• Padres starter: Griffin Canning (1-5, 6.64 ERA)