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Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies bats against the Arizona Diamondbacks during Game 1 of the National League Championship Series, and the Phillies' run propelled Pennsylvania sportsbooks to a record October.
Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies bats against the Arizona Diamondbacks during Game 1 of the National League Championship Series. Photo by Elsa/Getty Images via AFP.

The Philadelphia Phillies jumped on the Arizona Diamondbacks from the first pitch Tuesday, and they'll look to continue that momentum in Game 2. We make our best Diamondbacks-Phillies predictions based on the best MLB odds.

The Arizona Diamondbacks had an impressive start to the postseason with five consecutive victories, amassing a remarkable +19 run differential during that stretch. However, their winning streak came to an end in Game 1 when the Philadelphia Phillies secured a 5-3 win. As a result of the series-opening loss, Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo now holds a postseason record of 6-4.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been exceptionally strong on their home turf during the playoffs, boasting an 11-2 record since the beginning of the previous postseason. Notably, their only two home losses in this period occurred in last year's World Series.

Here is our best Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction for Game 2 of the NLCS (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies prediction: NLCS Game 2

Over 7.5 (-118 via FanDuel, DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Phillies righty Zack Wheeler retired 15 consecutive Diamondbacks after Corbin Carroll’s leadoff single Monday, but we will not overreact to Arizona’s lack of offensive success. Wheeler entered the start with the lowest WHIP of any pitcher in MLB history who has thrown at least 40 postseason innings.

The Diamondbacks stole the second-most bases in the league this season, but they couldn't get that going in the series opener as they struggled to get on base for most of the game. Arizona never challenged Wheeler, who limits opposing running games with the best of them (he has just seven steal attempts against in 2023).

Tuesday's starter Aaron Nola, is less adept at holding runners. Just 33.6% of base stealers (36 of 107) have been unsuccessful against him over 235 career appearances. 

Arizona will need to use its speed on the basepaths to help it overcome its No. 25 ranking in wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the second half of the season. Philadelphia has had no such issues against righties (seventh in wRC+ in that span), which should help its chances of success against Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly.

It will require a gargantuan effort from Kelly to limit Philadelphia’s bats in this game. Kyle Schwarber has now hit the most leadoff home runs in MLB postseason history (four), and Nick Castellanos became the second player in MLB history with five home runs in a three-game postseason period. That does not factor in how red-hot Trea Turner and Bryce Harper have been, as they have slashed .500/.533/.893 and .409/.567/.955 in the postseason, respectively.

This is a four-star play, as the Over is 49-33 in Philadelphia’s last 82 games, and Arizona has hit its team total Over in 46 of its last 78 road games.

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Diamondbacks vs. Phillies best odds

FanDuel, DraftKings (-118)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
7.57.5888
Over (-118)Over (-118)Over (-105)Over (+100)Over (+100)

The majority of the best sports betting sites have been aligned on the total of most MLB postseason games, but that is not the case Tuesday. DraftKings and FanDuel are offering a line a half-run lower than their competitors.

The only way we would be tempted to back the Over at the higher number is with the plus-money odds (+100) found at Caesars or bet365, but we prefer to pay slightly extra for our number at 7.5. There is a big difference between needing eight runs or nine runs scored to cash our wager.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies odds analysis

DraftKings is the only sportsbook with some movement from their original number, as they lowered from 8.0 runs (+100/-120) on Monday night to 7.5 (-118/-102) runs on Tuesday morning. The only other movement to this point is FanDuel going from -110 odds on either side of their 7.5-run total to its current split of -118/-104. Fifty-six percent of early wagers have backed the Over. 

Moneyline wagers vary from Phillies -152 at FanDuel to as high as -166 at DraftKings. Philadelphia has drawn nearly three times as many moneyline wagers as Arizona (73/27), despite the Diamondbacks winning nine of their last 10 games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies game info: NLCS Game 2

  • When: Tuesday, Oct. 17 at 8:07 p.m. ET
  • Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
  • How to watch: TBS
  • Weather: 65 degrees, 7% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph NNW

Diamondbacks-Phillies pick made 10/17/2023 at 6:21 a.m. ET.

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