⚾ Cubs vs. Braves Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (May 12)

A clash of two National League beasts starts tonight when the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves open a three-game series at 7:15 p.m. ET from Truist Park (TBS).

The two clubs lead their divisions, with the Braves already sprinting out to a colossal nine-game advantage in the NL East. Even better, the Braves and Cubs occupy the top two spots in the National League, and they're in the top three MLB-wide.

This series then offers an early-season playoff barometer, and the Cubs vs. Braves win probability from the prediction market apps shows a near tossup.

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🏆 Who will win Cubs vs. Braves? Live MLB win probability

There's been a return to where this market opened, with the Cubs and Braves nearly deadlocked. But there was a journey in between, with Atlanta gradually growing as the favorite and cresting at a 57% win probability late last night before tumbling back down. That's all come amid $109,093 in trading volume.

That peak was likely the product of the Cubs coming off two straight offensive duds while being shut out en route to dropping a series against the Texas Rangers. The Cubs lost those two games by a combined score of 9-0.

But the larger view shows two juggernauts that are nearly even, though with Atlanta often holding a notable edge. The Braves lead all of MLB with a plus-87 run differential, but the Cubs aren't far behind in fifth at plus-47. The Braves boast MLB's best pitching staff with a 3.14 ERA, and Chicago is in ninth at 3.81. Atlanta sits first in OPS at .784, with the Cubs in fourth at .764.

The market is then properly reflecting a game and series that will come down to the margins.

My prediction: Braves win. The perhaps defining edge for the Braves in this matchup will come when the game turns to the bullpens, as Atlanta trots out the league's fourth-best unit.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Cubs vs. Braves?

Matt Olson is the runaway leader in this market while getting a 23% probability of going yard. However, that's down from 42%, even though Olson will be taking his swings against a Cubs pitching staff tied for the fifth-most homers allowed leaguewide.

That drop for Olson also isn't fully justified given how much one of MLB's premier lefty sluggers is mashing everything after belting 14 homers already (just two off the league lead) with a career-best 1.031 OPS. His expected slugging percentage, average exit velocity, and barrel rate all incredibly sit in the 95th percentile or higher, according to Baseball Savant.

Olson has been scorching during May too as we approach the midway point of the month while slugging .794. It's easy to see why there's such a probability gap between him and Pete Crow-Armstrong (13%) to hit a dinger tonight. 

My prediction: Matt Olson to hit a home run. Olson will face Cubs starter Colin Rea, who leans especially hard on his fastball against lefties. The Braves' first baseman is slugging a bonkers .756 against heat. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today from our MLB expert Sean Tomlinson.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Cubs vs. Braves?

The Cubs' recent offensive scuffling has no doubt been influencing this market too, with the probability of a first-inning run dropping from a high 58% chance to a comparably low 45% yesterday morning.

It's bounced back and forth a bit since and seems to be settling around 52%. The correct approach here is to align yourself with that drop.

You might at first focus on the Braves' behemoth offense and think runs are coming in buckets regardless of the inning. But the Cubs are the league's second-best NRFI team with a 27-14 record, largely due to their stellar pitching. And as lethal as the Braves are in the opening frame while tied for the sixth-best YRFI mark at 24-17, that falls to a far more pedestrian 8-10 at home. Truist Park suppresses home runs and sits 18th in that regard through Ballpark Factors.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. Rea has allowed one run in three of his five starts this season. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFI bets today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Cubs vs. Braves win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Cubs vs. Braves

• Date: Tuesday, May 12
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Truist Park (Atlanta)
• TV: TBS
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Cubs starter: Colin Rea (4-1, 4.03 ERA)
• Braves starter: Grant Holmes (2-1, 4.34 ERA)