⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Tuesday, May 12
The marathon baseball season leads to so very many peaks and valleys for hitters, and my home run predictions today have found three options who are approaching a summit right now.
Shea Langeliers leads us off, and he just might spend the entire campaign at the mountaintop. But in Vinnie Pasquantino and Michael Busch there are two lefties at highly appealing odds (especially the latter) whose production has been skyrocketing recently. That's why they feature prominently in my MLB home run picks.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 12
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Shea Langeliers home run (+302 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.60u | Boasts the fifth-best OPS MLB-wide at 1.011. |
| Vinnie Pasquantino home run (+411 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.82u | Four multi-hit games in May and two homers. |
| Michael Bush home run (+620 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 1.24u | Has put up a 1.138 OPS over the past week. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.66 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Shea Langeliers to hit a home run (+300)
Langeliers is sizzling in every regard, including recently while posting an eye-popping 1.272 OPS over the past two weeks.
His expected slugging sits in the 98th percentile too, but what's especially appealing about Langeliers today is he gets a pitching matchup that plays to his strengths. Langeliers will spend a good chunk of his evening facing the Cardinals' Andre Pallante, who throws his sinker 40% of the time to righties, and a slider 35%. Langeliers is posting a hard-hit rate of 52.2% and 50%, respectively, against those pitches.
Our Mike Spector is looking elsewhere in his Cardinals vs. Athletics prediction.
📡 SBR Edge: Loving the heat
Langeliers is slugging an absurd .818 against four-seamers, showing that he nails his pitch whenever it comes.
π₯ More home run picks today
Vinnie Pasquantino to hit a home run (+411)
A sluggish start from the Pasquatch is perhaps beginning to fade into the rearview. We're nearly halfway through May, and the power-packed lefty has posted a .733 OPS this month, a significant improvement over his .595 in March and April.
Now he faces a soft-tossing righty in Erick Fedde of the White Sox, whose HR/9 sits at a bloated 1.9 after giving up five bombs across his last two starts. He generates very few strikeouts with a 5.7 K/9, and Fedde leans on a cutter as his primary secondary pitch against lefties while throwing it 26% of the time. Pasquantino posted a .350 batting average against cutters last year while slugging .500.
🤑 More MLB props
Looking for six simple outs? Our Dustin Saracini has you covered with his best best NRFI bets today.
Michael Busch to hit a home run (+620)
Let's balance out the Langeliers play at shorter odds, and do it with a wisely placed sprinkle on a lefty masher who's heating up.
There are plenty of similarities between Pasquantino and Busch, beyond just what side of the plate they swing from. Like Pasquantino, Bush struggled for the early portion of the campaign, but now he's soaring with a 1.178 OPS in May. That includes slugging .600 over the past week.
He's recorded six extra-base hits in May, one of which left the yard. Now he'll face the Braves' Grant Holmes, who also hasn't been generating a high volume of strikeouts with his 7.0 K/9, and he's been beaten up for eight earned runs allowed over his past two starts.
π Best home run parlay picks today
We're riding with two lefties who have been white-hot recently while leaving slow starts behind them, and Langeliers, whose trip to the moon seems to continue nightly.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Shea Langeliers home run (+302)
- Vinnie Pasquantino home run (+411)
- Michael Busch home run (+620)
Best odds: +14690 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 2.9u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-84-0 | -11.08 units β | -24.9% β |
| Home run picks | 9-51-0 | -4.23 units β | -32.0% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-13 | -0.86 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Part of my healthy Bankroll management is rarely deviating from a 0.20-unit investment in a fun but highly volatile market. But every day there's at least one batter worthy of slightly more risk, and today it's Langeliers.
He's clobbering everything, which includes an average exit velocity of 92.7 mph that sits 24th leaguewide.
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