⚾ Cardinals vs. Athletics Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Tuesday, May 12

Two of the biggest surprise teams in Major League Baseball begin a three-game set as the AL West-leading Athletics host the St. Louis Cardinals from Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET with a starting pitching matchup that features Andre Pallante against Jeffrey Springs. The Athletics are -145 betting favorites.

My Cardinals vs. Athletics prediction backs the home favorites given St. Louis’ struggles against southpaws. I also continue to ride Nick Kurtz’s historic on-base streak as part of my MLB picks, and find value with a Cardinals slugger to go deep even though I expect the Athletics to prevail.

⚾ Cardinals vs. Athletics picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 2.30 units

🏆 Who will win Cardinals vs. Athletics?

The Athletics dropped the series finale against the Orioles on Sunday, but have done well to avoid losing streaks, as they’re 12-6 after a loss this season.

Score prediction: Athletics 6, Cardinals 4

💰 Cardinals vs. Athletics prediction & best bet

Athletics ML (-145)

The Cardinals have the league’s second-best road record, and are an MLB-best five games over .500 against teams with a winning record. But one troubling trend is their 3-4 record against left-handed starting pitchers, which has me siding with the home favorites.

Despite pitching to a 4.87 ERA at home, the Athletics are still 3-1 and have outscored opponents by eight runs in Jeffrey Springs’ four home starts. Springs generated whiffs on just one of his 24 combined fastballs and sliders last time out, but I’m not as worried since St. Louis ranks 24th in BABIP against southpaws.

🔥 Best Cardinals vs. Athletics player prop bet

Nick Kurtz Over 0.5 runs (-160)

Nick Kurtz drew a walk in his last at-bat of the last game to extend his on-base streak to 34 games. Not only is it the longest active on-base streak, but it’s the longest by an Athletics player since 2008-09 when Jack Cust had a 40-game streak.

Kurtz isn’t merely just drawing walks, as he’s hit safely in seven of the last eight and 24 of 34 games over the span. 

He is slugging .516 with 42% of his hits against right-handed pitching going for extra bases. But even if Kurtz isn’t getting himself into scoring position with extra-base hits, four of his five stolen bases have come against righties, while opposing base stealers are 4-for-4 against Pallante.

💣 Cardinals vs. Athletics home run prediction

Jordan Walker to hit a home run (+390)

Since an awful outing on April 19 when he allowed four home runs, Springs has given up a home run in three straight starts since. In that span, among pitchers who have thrown a minimum of 10 innings, the southpaw’s 3.26 HR/9 rate ranks sixth-worst.

Springs is a fly-ball pitcher, with 12 or more fly ball outs in three of his last four starts. Compared to his troubling HR/9 rate over the last three weeks, his 20.6% HR/FB rate is a little more respectable. 

Jordan Walker hit a 425-foot bomb for his 11th home run in his last game, and I’m backing him to homer in consecutive games for the fifth time this season.

🚀 Cardinals vs. Athletics same-game parlay

Normally I'd swap out a home run wager from a same-game parlay that seems to directly oppose one of the other legs, which Walker's home run wager does with the Athletics moneyline. But Sutter Health Park is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league, and the Athletics are used to having to win slugfests there.

Thus, I'm keeping the Walker home run wager to add value to this parlay, and am hoping he will be limited to just a solo blast.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Cardinals vs. Athletics: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I was all set to lay the -1.5 runs with the Athletics at plus-money odds, until BetMGM's moneyline odds were so appealing compared to the rest of the market. The next-lowest odds are -156 (60.94% implied probability at DraftKings), so I drew the line at backing the Athletics to win outright at anything shorter than -150.

With the Walker home run play, I'm cognizant of the fact that right-handed batters are slugging 72 points lower against Springs than lefties. But I'm banking on Walker going on another mini home-run spree, as he has homered in three consecutive games twice. And for my other player prop, Nick Kurtz is well worth the -160 price to score a run, given his eye-popping .437 on-base percentage throughout his 34-game on-base streak.

📊 Live Cardinals vs. Athletics odds

The Athletics have moved from -150 to -145 at BetMGM, which is surprising given the big gap in odds compared to the rest of the top sports betting sites. And the 60/40 betting split at DraftKings suggests the line could come down there as well throughout the day.

The top sports betting sites are split between a total of 10 and 10.5 runs, making it one of two games on Tuesday's MLB slate with a double-digit total. The line movement has been all over the place, with BetMGM lowering from an opening number of 10.5 down to 10, while FanDuel did the opposite. DraftKings actually touched a high of 11.5 (perhaps as a reaction to sharp wagers), but has plummeted back down to an O/U of 10 from there.

📈 Cardinals vs. Athletics betting trends

🚑 Cardinals vs. Athletics injuries

📺 How to watch Cardinals vs. Athletics

• Date: Tuesday, May 12
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Sutter Health Park (Sacramento, Calif.)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Cardinals starter: Andre Pallante (3-3, 4.34 ERA)
• Athletics starter: Jeffrey Springs (3-2, 3.89 ERA)