⚾ Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Wednesday, May 20

A series with razor-thin margins will now feature two of the fastest-rising young pitchers in MLB.

The starting pitching matchup of Trey Yesavage vs. Cam Schlittler figures prominently into my Blue Jays vs. Yankees prediction as New York looks to take the series after winning two tight affairs.

Both starters stifle hard contact, and Schlittler's effectiveness in one area will keep a struggling Blue Jays slugger down, which is the focus for one of my MLB picks.

It all starts at 7:05 p.m. ET tonight from Yankee Stadium (MLB Network, Prime Video), with the Yankees as the -175 favorties.

⚾ Blue Jays vs. Yankees picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.7 units | Max profit: 2.41 units

🏆 Who will win Blue Jays vs. Yankees?

The Yankees will prevail yet again in what's been a series with incredibly narrow margins thus far, with New York barely securing two one-run wins while hanging on amid Toronto's comeback attempts. In the end, Schlittler will be just a bit better than Yesavage, and the real separator could be the latter's inability to consistently pitch deep into games.

Score prediction: Yankees 4, Blue Jays 2

💰 Blue Jays vs. Yankees prediction & best bet

Under 7.5 (-104)

There's a reason this game is featured in our best NRFI bets tonight.

Schlittler has been enjoying the longer runway this season as Yesavage gets slowly built back up. He boasts a borderline untouchable cutter that opposing hitters are slugging just .121 against.

The Yankees hurler leads the Cy Young odds, and Yesavage's splitter is equally daunting for hitters while producing an expected slugging percentage of .195. The only potential hesitancy is Yesavage's lack of longevity as the Blue Jays bring him along slowly. But he completed six innings last time out, throwing a season-high 88 pitches.

🔥 Best Blue Jays vs. Yankees player prop bet

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Under 1.5 total bases (-158)

There are many layers to Guerrero's prolonged scuffling, and one that lines up poorly with what Schlittler does best.

Guerrero is chasing far more than usual, which goes against the typical high-end plate discipline we see from him. His chase rate was in the 89th percentile last year (21.5%), and now it's way down in the 44th percentile (30.4%).

That's perhaps happening out of desperation to both end his slump, and to help an often sputtering offense. Either way, Schlitter induces chase 37.2% of the time, which is among the league's best.

💣 Blue Jays vs. Yankees home run prediction

Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+250)

It's hard to back anyone to go deep tonight given the home run suppression from both Schlittler and Yesavage. A good chunk of the Yankees' power comes from the left side too, and Yesavage thrives against lefties.

So let's stick with the most powerful righty out there. Yesavage uses his lethal splitter less against righties, and he instead leans on a still imposing fastball and its top-end movement. He doesn't possess imposing velocity though while sitting in the 41st percentile at an average of 93.9 mph.

That's mighty appetizing for Aaron Judge, who's slugging .676 against fastballs, with a 68.2 hard-hit percentage.

For dinger picks that come with more confidence, head over to my best home run predictions today.

🚀 Blue Jays vs. Yankees same-game parlay

I'm subbing out the home run pick here due to a general lack of faith in any balls leaving the yard tonight at Yankee Stadium. Instead, let's go with the Over on Yesavage's strikeout total. The Yankees' potent lineup thrives in many areas, but they've recorded the eighth-most strikeouts.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 27.

💡 How I'm betting Blue Jays vs. Yankees: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Be sure to fade Guerrero at DraftKings, as some of the other best sports betting sites are sitting much shorter, including bet365 at -192. That makes the play all the more appealing, which is why I'm risking even more with a 1.5-unit bet.

Elsewhere, it's wise to minimize your risk with homers, but that's especially true tonight given how hard it is to create significant power and lift off the two primary weapons that Yesavage and Schlittler utilize.

📊 Live Blue Jays vs. Yankees odds

The Yankees are unsurprisingly getting the majority of the betting action, with 84% of the moneyline wagers through DraftKings on them, and 77% of the run line bets.

There's a little more division regarding the total, though the Under on 7.5 is still getting the easy majority of bets at 64%. That reflects the pitching matchup and the top-tier young talent on the mound tonight, and it aligns with my best bet.

However, I could become more hesitant if some of the best MLB betting sites begin dropping this total to 7 closer to game time, which is a real possibility given the slanted action.

📈 Blue Jays vs. Yankees betting trends

🚑 Blue Jays vs. Yankees injuries

📺 How to watch Blue Jays vs. Yankees

• Date: Wednesday, May 20
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (New York)
• TV: MLB Network, Prime Video
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Blue Jays starter: Trey Yesavage (1-1, 1.40 ERA)
• Yankees starter: Cam Schlittler (6-1, 1.35 ERA)