⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Tonight: MLB Odds & Expert HR Picks for Wednesday, May 20
Be sure to wish everyone in your life a happy Zack Littell Day, especially Juan Soto if you happen to bump into him.
Littell remains one of the leagueβs best targets for my home run predictions tonight, particularly with the repeated missiles he has allowed against Soto.
Elsewhere, Bobby Witt Jr. gets an intriguing matchup and a quality opportunity to stay hot, while Brent Rooker draws an equally homer-prone starter.
βΎ Best home run predictions tonight: MLB picks & odds May 20
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto home run (+286 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.57u | Littell is tied for the second-most homers allowed leaguewide. |
| Bobby Witt Jr. home run (+526 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 1.1u | Has posted a .340 batting average over the past two weeks. |
| Brent Rooker home run (+422 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.84u | Crushes sinkers, a pitch Jack Kochanowicz leans on heavily. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.51 units
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π£ Best home run prediction tonight
Juan Soto to hit a home run (+286)
Littell is still one of the league's leading homer factories. He gave up the second-most last year (36), and the righty is tied for the same mark this season (14).
He sports a ghastly HR/9 of 3.0, which is tied to an equally disastrous 4.4 K/9. Littell lacks a pitch that scares anyone, leading to the second-worst average exit velocity allowed (93.5 mph). His slider and four-seamer are the worst culprits, coming with expected slugging percentages of .599 and .558, respectively.
So it's a glorious time for Soto and his 95th percentile barrel rate to face him.
📡 SBR Edge: Breathing fire
You absolutely do not want to be throwing a substandard fastball against Soto, who's posted a .606 expected slugging percentage against heat.
π₯ More home run picks tonight
Bobby Witt Jr. to hit a home run (+526)
A slow start by his skyscraper-level standards is fading into the rearview now for Witt. He's produced a .949 OPS so far in May after a .797 in March and April. Zooming in a little closer, he's really been surging over the past two weeks with his 1.031 OPS while hitting four of his seven home runs this campaign.
Now the slugging shortstop draws a southpaw tonight in Connelly Early of the Boston Red Sox. Witt's OPS against lefties is also impressive at .998, and Early is due for significant regression. His barrel rate allowed rests in just the seventh percentile, according to Baseball Savant, and his expected ERA of 4.72 is far higher than the hurler's actual mark of 3.21.
🤑 Six simple outs
Want ways to cash in on a scoreless first frame? Head over to Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today.
Brent Rooker to hit a home run (+422)
The Angels' Jack Kochanowicz has corrected his homer-prone ways to some degree after giving up 21 bombs across a modest 111 innings last year (1.7 K/9).
But he's still missing so very few bats with his 6.0 K/9, and the contact he does allow remains loud with a 43% hard-hit rate. What especially sets the soft-tosser up poorly against the Athletics' Brent Rooker tonight is a heavy reliance on his sinker.
It's a pitch that's given him success, though that may be a mirage to some degree, as it comes with an expected slugging of .519. Meanwhile, Rooker's hard-hit rate against sinkers is 50.0, and his expected slugging is .527.
Rooker has clubbed two homers over his previous four games, including one last night.
π€ Most-bet MLB home run hitters today
Betting insights via DraftKings.
Most bet by ticket percentage ποΈ
- Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+201)
- Munetaka Murakami, White Sox (+359)
- Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+307)
Most bet by handle percentage π°
- Aaron Judge, Yankees (+232)
- Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+201)
- Yordan Alvarez, Astros (+307)
ποΈ Most-bet MLB player props tonight
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | Phillies | 2+ hits, runs & RBIs | -150 |
| Jack Leiter | Rangers | Under 5.5 strikeouts | +100 |
| Casey Schmitt | Giants | 1+ home runs | +600 |
| Trey Yesavage | Blue Jays | Over 5.5 strikeouts | -130 |
| Spencer Jones | Yankees | Over 0.5 hits, runs & RBIs | -110 |
π Best home run parlay picks tonight
The appealing price for Witt through DraftKings boosts our parlay tonight, as does the inclusion of Rooker to a lesser extent. They both balance out the comparably lower odds for Soto, one of the most alluring home run bets on the board tonight.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay tonight
- Juan Soto home run (+286)
- Bobby Witt Jr. home run (+526)
- Brent Rooker home run (+422)
Best odds: +12513 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 2.5u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-91-1 | -11.14 units β | -24.0% β |
| Home run picks | 11-58-0 | -4.03 units β | -26.7% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-16 | -0.92 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks tonight
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I don't deviate often from my standard 0.20-unit size in a volatile market. But Soto is the target tonight if you're wanting to take on a little more risk with a slightly greater sprinkle.
Yes, his odds are shorter for this market. But Littell keeps getting absolutely torpedoed, and even better, if he departs early the Nationals trot out the league's 26th-ranked bullpen (4.96 ERA).
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