🏀 Mavericks Next Coach Odds: Who Will Replace Jason Kidd in Dallas?

With Dallas Mavericks team president Masai Ujiri removing Jason Kidd as head coach of the team, we break down the Mavericks next coach odds to see who will replace the Hall of Famer next season. We analyze the current favorites on the best prediction market apps, look into why Kidd was fired, make our best prediction for his replacement, and more.

📊 Mavericks next coach odds: Who will coach Dallas in 2026?

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

While liquidity is still low, Sean Sweeney has emerged as the most likely candidate to replace Kidd, trading at 33%. He is the associate head coach of the San Antonio Spurs, who are among the favorites to win the NBA championship. Sweeney was at 21% when the market opened and, at one point, had a lower “Yes” price than the next most likely candidate.

Billy Donovan is next in line, trading at 23%. He briefly was the favorite overnight, but money came back in on Sweeney afterward. Donovan was most recently head coach of the Chicago Bulls from 2020–2026.

🏀 Mavericks next head coach favorites

Here are the most likely options to coach the Mavericks next season:

Coaches not listed are projected to have less than a 3% chance of landing the Mavericks job.

Sean Sweeney (33%)

NBA reporter Marc Stein named Sweeney as one of the top candidates to replace Kidd, alongside Minnesota Timberwolves lead assistant coach Micah Nori. Sweeney was Kidd’s lead assistant in Dallas for four seasons, including their NBA Finals run in 2024, before taking the associate head coach job with the Spurs in June 2025.

Billy Donovan (23%)

Donovan is one of the biggest names on the market, so it makes sense that he would be a top pick for any head coaching job. He has won two NCAA tournament championships (2006, 2007), and while he has not won at the highest level in the NBA, he led the Oklahoma City Thunder to the conference finals in 2016, where they lost to the Golden State Warriors in seven games.

Jon Scheyer (13%)

Duke head coach Jon Scheyer still maintains a relationship with Cooper Flagg, whom he coached for one season in Durham, so the Mavericks star would likely be happy to play under his former coach. Scheyer brought a Duke team led by Flagg to the Final Four in 2025, though he has fewer accolades than Donovan and has not coached at the professional level.

❓ Why was Jason Kidd fired?

Ujiri told reporters that it was his decision to fire Kidd, saying the organization needed a clean slate, and denied that the move had anything to do with the Luka Doncic trade.

Kidd had a 205–205 (.500) regular-season record and a 22–18 (.550) postseason record during his tenure with the Mavericks, though those numbers lack context, as Dallas has effectively been rebuilding since trading away Doncic. It's not unusual for a new lead executive to fire a head coach from a previous front office, so this move likely won't affect Kidd's reputation moving forward.

🎯 Best prediction for Mavericks next coach

This market is not predictive; it's purely reactive. So, without any new reports to go off of - which would just move the market immediately anyway - we have to get inside the mind of Ujiri.

The Mavericks’ team president’s last two head-coaching hires were both in Toronto: Darko Rajakovic in June 2023 and Nick Nurse in June 2018. While Nurse is trading at 6% to be the Mavericks’ next coach, it is unlikely Ujiri would hire him again after firing him in 2023. The similarities between Rajakovic and Nurse are that neither was a big-name hire at the time (which excludes Donovan for our purposes), and both coached in the G League and overseas.

Neither Sweeney nor Scheyer has coached in the G League or overseas, and while they both have quality coaching experience, Ujiri’s hiring history points to coaches who have experience at multiple levels. While Miami Heat top assistant coach Chris Quinn has not coached overseas, he has played in Russia and Spain, and his experience coaching in college, the G League, and the NBA may be enough to give him an edge over the bigger names in this market.

Prediction: Chris Quinn to become the Mavericks' next head coach (9%)

📜 Mavericks head coach history

Below is a look at the full history of head coaches in Dallas Mavericks franchise history, including regular-season records and major achievements.

💰 How to use NBA prediction markets

See all of our experts' NBA picks.

What does an NBA prediction market measure?

An NBA prediction market measures the likelihood of a specific outcome - such as a coach signing with a particular team.

How do prices work?

• Prices range from 1 cent to 99 cents
• A 40-cent contract implies a 40% chance based on market consensus
• If the outcome occurs, the contract settles at $1
• If not, it settles at $0

Prices move as participants react to rumors and reports.

Can positions be exited early?

Yes. Contracts can typically be sold before a signing is decided. That flexibility allows participants to respond to breaking news or shifts in momentum rather than holding a position until the final outcome.

How is Kalshi different from sportsbooks?

Kalshi operates as an exchange, not a house. Participants trade directly with each other, and prices are set by supply and demand instead of fixed odds.

Key distinctions include:

• Probabilities shown in cents rather than traditional odds
• Focus on real-world outcomes, not margins or spreads
• Ability to adjust or close positions before resolution

Is Kalshi regulated?

Yes. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Market rules, settlement criteria, and contract definitions are published in advance.