🏒 Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Prediction & Odds: Game 1 NHL Picks for Today, May 20

The Western Conference final best-of-seven series between the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche gets underway tonight, and my Golden Knights vs. Avalanche prediction breaks down all the Game 1 action.

The Avalanche are a -190 moneyline betting favorite ahead of puck drop from Ball Arena in Denver at 8 p.m. ET. You can catch the action on ESPN.

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🏒 Golden Knights vs. Avalanche picks & odds today: May 20

See all of our experts' NHL picks based on the latest NHL odds.

Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 2.82 units

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🏆 Who will win Golden Knights vs. Avalanche?

The Avs have absolutely been dominant in the postseason, losing just one game across two series. Colorado is the fastest team in the NHL playoffs, and that matters even more at the high-altitude Ball Arena in Denver. Nathan MacKinnon, in particular, will cause issues with Vegas' defense.

This is a team with plenty of experience; it won't stumble out of the gates on home ice.

Score prediction: Avalanche 5, Golden Knights 2 

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💰 Golden Knights vs. Avalanche prediction & best bet

Avalanche -1.5 (+136)

The Avs don't just win games: they explode to victories. Colorado has won five of its last six games by 2+ goals, and that's largely down to dominating play at 5-on-5 and capitalizing on high-danger chances.

The Avs have outscored opponents 23-13 at 5-on-5, while Vegas is significantly worse at 25-25. Vegas' number has been hampered by Carter Hart posting a save percentage of .892 at even strength in the playoffs. The Avs are propping up their numbers by outshooting opponents at 5-on-5 in a big way. This should spell disaster for the visiting Golden Knights.

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🔥 Best Golden Knights vs. Avalanche player prop bet

Nathan MacKinnon 5+ shots on goal (+158)

Bombs away for MacKinnon. You don't need to look a lot further than Individual Corsi per 60 (iCF/60) and his Individual Shots For per 60 (iSF/60).

With over 10 shot attempts per game (11.28 iSF/60) and the highest iCF/60 (24.75) of any player still in the playoffs, it should be plenty of pucks toward the net for the engine of the Avalanche offense. Vegas has transitioned to a more shell-based defense since making the late-season change to John Tortorella as bench boss, which should mean MacKinnon is forced to toss pucks toward the net from distance, driving up his shot count.

He hit this number in two of the three regular-season clashes between these teams, recording nine and six shots in the final two meetings - including one of the games that had Torts on the bench for Vegas.

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🚀 Golden Knights vs. Avalanche same-game parlay

I'm going to roll with three of my four bets above to make the SGP, leaving out only the Dorofeyev goal. 

The explanation above breaks down clearly why all these legs should work out - if the Avs win by 2+ the Over 6 should be in play (I prefer the -120 on the 6 thank the plus-money on the 6.5 to protect against a 4-2 win). MacKinnon, as always, will be the center point of the offense. 

at bet365 this pays +700; to get that same number at DraftKings you need to play the Over 6.5, and at FanDuel you can only get to +699 including the 6.5. 

Want to get wild and include the goal for postseason leader Dorofeyev? That'll get to +2300 at bet365. 

💵 Golden Knights vs. Avalanche SGP picks

• Avalanche -1.5 (+135)
• Over 6 (-120)
• MacKinnon 5+ shots on goal (+140)

Best odds: +700 via bet365 (0.25u -> 1.75u)

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💵 My betting record for NHL picks

All NHL picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since April 1

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💡 How I'm betting Golden Knights vs. Avalanche

Follow all of our NHL analysis and expert predictions this season.

This has been the story all playoffs. I'm going to dedicate two units flat to my moneyline/total/player prop picks and sprinkle a quarter of a unit on the parlay as a little fun roll of the dice. Bankroll management helps keep things in control. 

You have to be careful not to spread yourself too thin during major events like the playoffs of a heavily bet sport. Just because it's a new series and we're getting toward the end of the playoffs doesn't mean to go wild. The best sports betting apps have plenty of data to set their lines at by this time of year; things are sharp. Proceed cautiously.

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📊 Live Golden Knights vs. Avalanche odds: Game 1

Substantial action on Colorado has pushed the line from the opener of -185 to the -200 at many of the best sports betting sites, and I expect that money to pour in as the day goes on. While I think that's the right side, the value is long gone on the moneyline, so it was off to the spread we had to look. 

At BetMGM, when this line opened five days ago, the total was as low as 5.5, but it's been bet up to 6.5 almost the whole way across the board. I prefer the minor juice (-120 or betting, ideally) on the flat 6 and just accept the push if it comes to it. 

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📈 Golden Knights vs. Avalanche betting trends

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🚑 Golden Knights vs. Avalanche injuries

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📺 How to watch Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Game 1

• Date: Wednesday, May 20
• Puck drop: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Ball Arena (Denver)
• TV: ESPN