⚾ Brewers vs. Cubs Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (May 20)

The NL Central spotlight shifts to Wrigley Field tonight as the Brewers and Cubs battle in a matchup with playoff implications. Milwaukee hands the ball to left-hander Kyle Harrison, who enters with a dominant 2.09 ERA, while Chicago counters with the electric but inconsistent Edward Cabrera who has a 4.06 ERA. With first place momentum on the line, this is a big game.

The Cubs hold the advantage in Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs win probability from the prediction market apps, the Cubs have a 51% chance to win and the Brewers sit at 49%.

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🏆 Who will win Brewers vs. Cubs? Live MLB win probability

The Cubs enter this game with a 51% win probability based on the prediction markets. More than $116,497 has already been traded on this matchup, making it one of the more popular games to target tonight. The line opened at these exact numbers, showing that the public is split on who will win.

I strongly believe the wrong team is favored here, as the Brewers appear to be in the better spot overall. That makes Milwaukee the side I’m targeting tonight. While the Cubs have been solid early in the season, the Brewers hold the pitching advantage and have been playing excellent baseball recently. With their current form and matchup edge, Milwaukee is the only side I can back in this spot.

My prediction: Brewers win. The Brewers have the clear pitching advantage tonight, which gives them a strong edge in a tightly lined matchup against the Cubs. Milwaukee is also playing excellent baseball right now, and with their lineup producing consistently, they are in a great position to leave Chicago with a win.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Brewers vs. Cubs?

Tonight’s home run market on the prediction apps is already seeing $4,777 in early volume. The favorite to hit a home run tonight is Alex Bregman at 9%. Bregman has been a fantastic addition for the Cubs this season and already has four home runs. The issue is that I don’t expect the Cubs to hit many home runs tonight against Kyle Harrison, who has allowed only three home runs all season. I don’t anticipate that number increasing much tonight.

The second favorite to hit a home run tonight is Christian Yelich at 8%, and he is on the team I’m targeting to go yard tonight. Edward Cabrera has struggled to keep the ball in the park this season, allowing eight home runs in nine starts. That’s nearly one home run allowed per game, which is why we’re targeting a Brewers hitter in this matchup tonight.  

My prediction: Christian Yelich to hit a home run. Christian Yelich is in a great spot to leave the yard tonight thanks to his power against right-handed pitching and the Brewers’ favorable matchup against an inconsistent Cubs pitching staff. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today from our MLB expert Sean Tomlinson.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Brewers vs. Cubs?

The first-inning scoring market favors “No,” as the prediction markets have priced it at 61%. The Cubs are the third-best team in MLB when it comes to games going “No” in the first-inning scoring market, cashing NRFI at an 81.63% rate. That helps explain why the market is priced this way, especially with the Cubs at home and their early-game scoring tendencies this season.

The Brewers enter this game ranked 17th in MLB in games going toward no runs in the first inning, covering NRFI at a 71.74% rate. With Wrigley Field not yielding many home runs this season, this matchup screams NRFI.

My prediction: No run in the first inning. The Brewers vs. Cubs matchup sets up well for a no-run first inning, with both teams ranking among the better NRFI clubs in baseball this season. Kyle Harrison has done an excellent job limiting hard contact and home runs, while Wrigley Field has played pitcher-friendly early in the year, making quick scoreless frames likely tonight. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our NRFI today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.

📊 Brewers vs. Cubs win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Brewers vs. Cubs

• Date: Wednesday, May 20
• First pitch: 8:30 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Wrigley Field (Chicago, IL)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited/MLB.TV
• Streaming: ESPN Unlimited/MLB.TV
• Brewers starter: Kyle Harrison (4-1, 2.09 ERA)
• Cubs starter: Edward Cabrera (3-1, 4.06 ERA)