⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Thursday, May 14

We’re 42 games into the season, and the fact that Fernando Tatis Jr. still does not have a home run is head scratching. But as part of my home run predictions today, I explain why he is a great value play to finally snap that dreaded drought.

I add two other former American League all-stars to my MLB home run picks, as Julio Rodriguez has excellent numbers recently against the Astros, while Byron Buxton is the league leader in home runs over the last month. My final play backs a White Sox slugger who just had a 12-game hitting streak snapped.

⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds May 14

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 6.34 units

💣 Best home run prediction today

Julio Rodriguez to hit a home run (+456)

Julio Rodriguez hit a 414-foot bomb in Monday’s series opener against Houston, bringing his hitting streak against the AL West rivals to 10 games. And in his previous 15 games total against the Astros, he batted .323 with four doubles, three home runs, nine RBI, and 15 runs. 

Though Rodriguez was one of two Mariners without a hit in Tuesday’s 10-2 romp, he was still amid a career-best 42-game start in terms of OPS. Rodriguez now faces Astros righty Mike Burrows, who has allowed a .822 opponents’ OPS and multiple home runs in two of four home starts this season.

🔥 More home run picks today

Byron Buxton to hit a home run (+316)

Since April 13, Byron Buxton leads the majors with 15 home runs, and accomplished that in two fewer games than the man in second in that span, Kyle Schwarber. 

Buxton caught fire with 11 home runs in a 19-game span, after he had no home runs and drove in just one run over the first 14 games of the season.

All Twins hitters are getting their first look at Marlins rookie Robby Snelling, who is making just his second career start. He allowed a home run and five total hits over five innings in his debut against the Nationals, while right-handed hitters had the only two extra-base hits against the rookie while posting a 1.227 OPS.

Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+564)

Fernando Tatis Jr. entered the week with the second-most plate appearances of any batter without a home run. Of the top five sluggers on that list, three rank in the first percentile in barrel percentage, while two rank in the first percentile in bat speed and hard-hit rate. But there’s optimism for Tatis based on his 98th percentile hard-hit rate, 77th percentile barrel rate, and 84th percentile bat speed. 

Tatis’ 79 wRC+ is down from 111, 135, and 131 over the last three seasons. He still has a 58.3% hard-hit rate, and six other players with a higher rate have hit at least five home runs. Four of those sluggers have double-digit home runs (Munetaka Murakami, Oneil Cruz, James Wood, and Ben Rice).

Chase Meidroth to hit a home run (+1200)

Chase Meidroth entered this week’s series opener against the Royals amid a 10-game hit streak, during which he was batting .333 with a .894 OPS and five extra-base hits. He then promptly hit a three-run home run on Tuesday for his third home run of the season, while taking advantage of Rate Field’s hitter friendly dimensions with the ball traveling 358 feet.

Royals southpaw Kris Bubic has been tough on right-handed hitters this season, allowing just two home runs with a .293 slugging percentage. While he hasn’t allowed a home run in three starts (spanning 17 ⅔ innings), his 29.3% fly ball rate is on pace to shatter a career-high, and is up from 14.3% and 19.8% from the last two seasons.

🚀 Best home run parlay picks today

The first two names in this home run parlay are household names that rank in the top-14 in the American League MVP future odds leaderboard. They've both been red-hot of late and are essential to their team's offensive production. I would not put anyone off leaving the other two names (Tatis Jr. and Meidroth) out of home run parlays since they've hit three home runs between them, but I love the value they bring to balance out the first two safer picks.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Today's four MLB home runs picks would usually be the perfect opportunity to wager more aggressively on the safer two plays with Rodriguez and Buxton, and scale back some on the value plays of Tatis Jr. and Meidroth. But my formula of making every home run wager a 0.25-unit play has worked so far in representing a bulk of my near 22 units of profits with player props. Therefore, I'm content with wagering the same amount on all four plays, especially when only needing one to hit to turn a profit for the day.