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MLB Player Props & Best Bets Today: Will Red-Hot Astros Cool Off Snell?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 8, 2023 9:18 AM EDT • 4 min 63 sec read.

Twelve new Major League Baseball series begin Friday, and our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday are based on the best MLB odds.

There has been tremendous parity in the National League recently, as the Arizona Diamondbacks enter the day as the only team on any sort of winning streak. The Diamondbacks have won back-to-back games to take a brief hold of the NL’s third wild-card spot (half-game ahead of the Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds).

Meanwhile, in the American League, the Baltimore Orioles have MLB’s longest active winning streak (five games) and have built a four-game cushion between them and the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East.

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Friday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our World Series odds.

Friday's MLB schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

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Friday's MLB best bets

  • Player prop: Spencer Steer Over 0.5 RBIs (+145 via bet365) vs. Cardinals ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: George Kirby Over 2.5 earned runs (+125 via bet365) vs. Rays ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Blake Snell Under 6.5 strikeouts (-130 via bet365) vs. Astros ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Total: Rockies-Giants Under 8.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Friday's MLB prop picks

Player prop: Spencer Steer Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Cardinals (+145 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

While several Cincinnati Reds pitchers remain out due to a COVID-19 outbreak within the clubhouse, the team must pick it up offensively to improve its NL wild-card chances. With the St. Louis Cardinals trotting out southpaw Drew Rom, we are targeting Spencer Steer to help carry the load for the Reds, as he is second on the time with a .560 slugging percentage and .933 OPS against left-handed pitchers.

Steer has driven in at least one run in three of the previous four games, and his on-base and slugging percentages are on track to improve for the third straight month.

Rom has pitched to a 7.24 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in three MLB appearances, and his .333 OBA against right-handed hitters means Steer should have plenty of chances to drive in runs.

Most of our best sports betting apps are hovering around this number, but bet365 provides the best value.

Player prop: George Kirby Over 2.5 earned runs vs. Rays (+125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

This matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays has the lowest projected total of any night game on the day’s slate (8.0 runs). While the game has virtual coin-flip moneyline odds, we expect Mariners starter George Kirby to exceed his projected earned runs total.

Kirby started August on fire by holding the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles to a combined one run in 16 innings. However, this is Kirby’s fourth consecutive road start, and his last three have produced subpar numbers despite facing poor offenses. Over his previous three starts, Kirby has pitched to a 6.34 ERA despite facing three offenses that rank in the bottom 11 of the league in runs scored.

At one point in mid-August, Kirby led MLB in WHIP, and though he still ranks fourth, his drop in velocity on his two primary pitches (fastball and slider) in his last start - which he throws a combined 59.2% of the time - is a concern.

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This is only a three-star play, as the low projected total gives us pause, but Tampa Bay ranks eighth in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at home since Aug. 1, and Kirby’s xBA ranks in the bottom half of the league. Caesars and DraftKings offer +115 and +120 odds for this wager, making bet365 our go-to shop.

Player prop: Blake Snell Under 6.5 strikeouts vs. Astros (-130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Since a 9-2 win on Aug. 26 against the Detroit Tigers, the Houston Astros offense has been on fire. The Astros have averaged an MLB-best 8.9 runs per game in that span while leading the majors by a wide margin in nearly every statistical offensive category, including OPS (1.037), BABIP (.349), wRC+ (183), and wOBA (.436). However, the most impressive number in that stretch is an MLB-low 12.7% strikeout rate, and they are one of 10 teams that has struck out less than 20% of the time.

Padres southpaw Blake Snell enters the day as the odds-on favorite (-205 at DraftKings) to win the NL Cy Young Award, in large part because he ranks third in K/9 rate (11.67) and leads the majors in ERA (2.50) and hits per nine innings (6.1). However, while Snell has recorded eight-plus strikeouts in five of his previous seven starts, an Astros offense that is red-hot should knock him out of the game before the sixth inning (he has recorded 18-plus outs in five consecutive starts), thus lowering his ceiling for strikeouts.

FanDuel charges the most juice of any major sportsbook (-138) to back this Under, while bet365 offers the cheapest number.

Friday's MLB game picks

Total: Rockies-Giants Under 8.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The San Francisco Giants have been carried by their pitching staff all season, but even a top-10 rotation and bullpen can't make up for their offensive inefficiencies of late. Since June 25, the Giants rank dead-last in the majors with 210 runs scored. Entering Thursday, the gap of 26 runs between them and the next lowest team was the same as the gap between the 29th and 25th-ranked offenses in that span.

San Francisco faces a lefty in Ty Blach, who has a respectable 4.08 ERA away from Coors Field. Meanwhile, the Colorado Rockies offense should struggle against Giants phenom Kyle Harrison, as Colorado has the highest strikeout rate (28%) against left-handed pitchers in road games this year. Harrison has burst onto the scene with a 32.8% strikeout rate through his first three MLB starts, so we do not expect the Rockies to put many balls in play.

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This is a confident four-star pick, as the Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams. BetMGM is the only one of our best sportsbooks charging less than -108 in juice to back the Under, which is great value compared to the -102 odds to back the Under of 8.0 runs at FanDuel.

MLB best bets made 9/8/2023 at 6:23 a.m. ET.

MLB betting odds pages

World Series OddsMLB Hits Leader OddsMLB RBI Leader Odds
MLB Rookie of the Year OddsMLB Wins Leader OddsMLB Win Totals
MLB MVP OddsMLB Home Run Leader OddsMLB Best Regular Season Record Odds
MLB Cy Young Award OddsMLB Strikeout Leader OddsMLB Home Run Derby Odds
MLB Stolen Base Leader Odds

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.