We are treated to plenty of early Major League Baseball action on Labor Day, as seven of the 11 games are played in the afternoon window. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday based on the best MLB odds.
Several new series that begin today are must-watch television as far as playoff races are concerned. The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers are within one game of the Seattle Mariners in the AL West when they begin a three-game series at Globe Life Field. Elsewhere, the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs can improve their playoff chances dramatically at the expense of the other in their three-game series at Wrigley Field.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our World Series odds.
Monday’s MLB schedule and odds
- Chicago White Sox (+130) vs. Kansas City Royals (-155)
- San Francisco Giants (+120) vs. Chicago Cubs (-142)
- Houston Astros (-108) vs. Texas Rangers (-112)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-192) vs. Oakland Athletics (+160)
- Colorado Rockies (+205) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-250)
- Seattle Mariners (OFF) vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Boston Red Sox (+114) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-135)
- Minnesota Twins (-135) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+114)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-180) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+150)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-112) vs. San Diego Padres (-108)
- Baltimore Orioles (-180) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+150)
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Monday’s MLB best bets
- Player prop: Brent Rooker to record two-plus total bases (+130 via FanDuel) vs. Blue Jays ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Pablo Lopez to record a win (+130 via bet365) vs. Guardians ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Juan Soto Over 0.5 RBIs (+165 via bet365) vs. Phillies ⭐⭐⭐
- Moneyline: Cubs ML vs. Giants (-134 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Monday’s MLB prop picks
Player prop: Brent Rooker to record two-plus total bases vs. Blue Jays (+130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Oakland Athletics slugger Brent Rooker’s 183 total bases are 34 more than the next closest on the team, and September has been kind to him thus far, as he has produced a .985 OPS. Over the last 15 days, half of Rooker’s 12 hits and nine of his previous 22 have gone for extra bases. And even if Rooker is not producing from a power standpoint, he still has two multi-hit games since Aug. 25, so he has a chance to cash this prop with two-plus hits.
Rooker has one hit in three career at-bats against Toronto Blue Jays righty Jose Berrios. But Berrios has struggled of late, allowing five or more runs in three of his last four starts, with 25 hits in 22 innings pitched in that span. Berrios has also allowed two home runs in three of his previous four appearances, and Pitching+ grades him as the fourth-lowest score of all members of the Blue Jays rotation in that span.
All of our best sports betting apps have the O/U on Rooker’s total bases at 0.5, with bet365 charging the least juice (-160). However, with the frequency that Rooker’s hits go for extra bases, we are enticed by his plus-money odds at FanDuel and hope one hit is all we will need to cash this Over.
Player prop: Pablo Lopez to record a win vs. Guardians (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Give the Cleveland Guardians credit for not giving up on the season, claiming three pitchers off waivers when they became available, including Lucas Giolito, today’s starting pitcher. Cleveland likely knew it had these three games against the Minnesota Twins to make one last run at the AL Central, given it starts the day five games out of first place. But Giolito is damaged goods at this point, and we expect the Twins to take full advantage.
Giolito’s teams are 1-9 in his last 10 starts, and the opposition has averaged 6.2 runs per game in that stretch. He has allowed at least three runs in seven of his previous eight outings, and while he has limited opponents to a respectable .264 BABIP in his last six starts, he has been burned by a 23.8% HR/FB rate.
This is a three-star play, as Pablo Lopez earned the win in four of his six August starts, and Minnesota is 8-3 in the last 11 times he has toed the rubber, with three wins over 74-plus win teams by a combined 23-7 in that span. With Caesars and DraftKings at +110 and +120 odds, respectively, the best value for this wager is at bet365.
Player prop: Juan Soto Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Phillies (+165 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
The Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff collectively struggled against the Los Angeles Angels and Milwaukee Brewers lineups this week. Philadelphia allowed a .354 BABIP, an 18% HR/FB rate, and hard contact on 37.9% of balls in play. In addition, the entire staff pitched to a 5.37 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, even though its xFIP of 3.52 compared to its actual 4.18 FIP suggests those numbers could have been better.
San Diego Padres slugger Juan Soto has homered in three straight games and driven in at least one run in four of five. He is in his much better hitting split with a .948 OPS against right-handed pitching compared to a .770 OPS against southpaws and has impressive numbers in a small sample against Phillies righty Taijuan Walker, slashing .364/.417/.545 in 11 at-bats while striking out just once.
Monday’s MLB game picks
Moneyline: Cubs ML vs. Giants (-134 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Cubs have been 9.5 games better than the Giants since the All-Star Break, going 31-17 (second-best record in the NL) compared to San Francisco’s 21-26 second-half record. And while Giants righty Logan Webb still has the fifth-best odds to win the Cy Young Award (+3000 via DraftKings), his individual success (team leader in ERA, WAR, WHIP, strikeouts, and innings pitched) has not translated to wins, as the team is 13-15 in his 28 starts, including a -8 run differential in the last three (all losses).
This is a four-star play despite the Giants being eight games over .500 (23-15) against left-handed starting pitchers this year, as they are 27th or worse in wRC+, wOBA, and OPS in road games against southpaws this season. Now they face one of the best in Justin Steele, who is looking to match Spencer Strider for the league lead in wins (16) and has the second-best ERA of any starting pitcher (2.69).
FanDuel is one of two sportsbooks where one can back the favorites at better than -140 odds.
MLB best bets made 9/4/2023 at 7:19 a.m. ET.
MLB betting odds pages
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.