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MLB Player Props & Best Bets Today: Will Arraez Keep Sparking Red-Hot Marlins?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 18, 2023 5:53 PM EDT • 4 min 44 sec read.

With just two weeks left in the Major League Baseball regular season, an 11-game slate kicks off an exciting new week, and you can check out our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday based on the best MLB odds.

Among Monday’s games, the most mouth-watering matchup is between the Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros, two teams barely clinging to leads in their respective divisions.

Elsewhere, the top two teams in the NL East battle in a potential playoff preview as the Philadelphia Phillies look to improve their 3-7 head-to-head record against the Atlanta Braves.

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Monday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our World Series odds.

Monday’s MLB schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

Monday’s MLB best bets

  • Player prop: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 total bases vs. Mets (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Brady Singer Under outs recorded vs. Guardians (OFF) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Bryan Woo Over 5.5 hits allowed vs. Athletics (+125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Moneyline: Braves (-115 via BetMGM) vs. Phillies ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Monday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Luis Arraez Over total bases vs. Mets (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Miami Marlins are coming off a three-game sweep of MLB’s best team, the Atlanta Braves, with their offense exploding for an average of 12 runs per game and totaling 10 home runs in the series.

Leadoff man Luis Arraez is a significant reason for that offensive onslaught, as he went 8-for-15 with three home runs and five RBIs in the series. Arraez has logged a 1.320 OPS in the last seven days, a 1.061 OPS over the previous 15, and seven of his last 19 hits have gone for extra bases. He may not need a multi-hit day to cash this wager.

Arraez faces New York Mets righty Jose Butto, who has appeared in just six games this season, and only one of those appearances has been against a winning team. Thus, we are taking his 3.46 ERA and .184 OBA against left-handed hitters with a grain of salt. 

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We are jumping at the opportunity for plus-money odds at DraftKings and bet365 for this wager, while Caesars is slightly more costly at -111.

Player prop: Brady Singer Under outs recorded vs. Guardians (OFF) ⭐⭐⭐

Kansas City Royals righty Brady Singer recorded 20-plus outs in his first three starts in August but has recorded more than 15 outs just once in the four starts since. He has allowed six runs in three of those starts and has been yanked before his 80th pitch in each of the last two.

Singer ranks in the 12th percentile in xBA and the second percentile in hard-hit contact, which is troubling when facing a Cleveland Guardians lineup that puts the ball in play at the highest rate in the majors (18.7% strikeout rate).

This is a three-star play, as Singer has allowed a .357/.407/.527 slash line in 112 combined at-bats against current Guardians hitters, and he was tagged for six earned runs and a season-high 13 hits the last time he faced them.

There are currently no pitching props available at our best sports betting apps for this game, but this is an auto-play at anything under 18, and we are hopeful we can get plus-money odds if the O/U is set at 16.5 or 17.5.

Player prop: Bryan Woo Over 5.5 hits allowed vs. Athletics (+125 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Seattle Mariners rookie Bryan Woo had a respectable 3.63 ERA after his first seven starts. Since then, Woo has a 4.61 ERA and the worst xFIP (4.94) of any Mariners pitcher (min. four starts). He also has the worst K-BB% (11.4%) of any Mariners starter, and his 102 Stuff+ rating is second-worst among all Mariners pitchers who have thrown 40-plus innings in that stretch.

Woo has not allowed an earned run in his last nine innings, but the Oakland Athletics rank in the top half of the league in BABIP (.303) in home games against right-handed pitching since Aug. 15, and Woo is not built to take advantage of their biggest weakness, a 29th-ranked strikeout rate (28.9%) in that split. This is a contrarian play, as Woo has allowed four or fewer hits in six of his previous seven starts.

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Caesars and DraftKings offer +117 and +120 odds, respectively, so we are headed to bet365 for the best value on this wager.

Monday’s MLB game picks

Moneyline: Braves ML vs. Phillies (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Marlins swept the Braves for the first time since 2015, and manager Brian Snitker will likely stress the need to play more consistent baseball and not limp into the playoffs, even though they have all but locked up home-field advantage. That starts with a series against a potential playoff opponent, and one they took three of four games from just last week.

Phillies righty Zack Wheeler has held current Braves to a combined .226/.262/.431 slash line in 239 combined at-bats. But his counterpart, Kyle Wright, has held current Phillies to an even more impressive .173/.296/.361 slash line in a smaller sample size (75 at-bats).

Philadelphia’s only win in its last series against Atlanta was with Wright on the mound, but it was his first start in over four months. We expect him to get back to being the pitcher who had career-bests in strikeout percentage (23.6%), walk rate (7.2%), ERA (3.19), and xERA (3.89) last season.

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BetMGM and Caesars are the only of our best sports betting sites at which one can back the Braves at cheaper than -117 odds.

MLB best bets made 9/18/2023 at 6:18 a.m. ET.

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MLB betting odds pages

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.