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MLB Player Props & Best Bets Today: Will Guerrero Continue Home Run Streak?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 17, 2023 9:11 AM EDT • 4 min 41 sec read.

A whopping 13 Major League Baseball teams aim for series sweeps to end the week, and you can check out our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday based on the best MLB odds.

Another division has been clinched, as the Los Angeles Dodgers became the second team to win 90 games and secured their 10th NL West title in 11 years.

The next-closest team to clinch their division is the Minnesota Twins, whose magic number is eight entering Sunday.

Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Sunday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our World Series odds.

Sunday’s MLB schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

Sunday’s MLB best bets

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Sunday’s MLB prop picks

Player prop: Jazz Chisholm Over 0.5 RBIs vs. Braves (+235 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Miami Marlins slugger Jazz Chisholm made history Saturday, becoming the second player since 1900 to hit a grand slam and steal three bases in a game, per ESPN Stats & Info. His grand slam was Miami’s first of the season, and Chisholm broke an eight-game RBI-less streak with the blast. We expect him to ride the momentum of that big hit, given the magnitude of what it meant for the team’s NL wild-card chances.

Chisholm has had success against Braves righty Charlie Morton, as he has eight hits in 23 at-bats while posting a 1.027 OPS.

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This is a four-star play, as Morton has allowed 11 earned runs in his previous 14 1/3 innings (spanning three starts) against teams that currently occupy a playoff spot.

The +235 odds found at DraftKings and bet365 are a steal compared to Caesars’ offer of +197 for this wager.

Player prop: Framber Valdez to record a win vs. Royals (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Houston Astros southpaw Framber Valdez has been the epitome of an innings eater this year, with the most seven-plus innings starts (14) of all American League starters. While Valdez was a hard-luck loser in his last start against the Oakland Athletics after allowing three earned runs over seven innings, he recorded double-digit strikeouts for the first time since July 15 and had a 35% CSW% with 34 called strikes and whiffs.

Houston has feasted on teams under .500 this season, going 48-25 (.658), and it should have a clear advantage over the Kansas City Royals and Jordan Lyles, especially since his strikeout rate has dropped 17% since 2021.

Lyles has thrown three complete games this season, more than he totaled from 2011 to 2022. However, he still ranks in the 18th percentile or worse in xBA and barrels, and his ground-ball percentage that ranks in the 12 percentile could get him into trouble against an Astros lineup that ranks ninth in HR/FB% (15.1%) since Aug. 1.   

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Once again, DraftKings and bet365 offer the best odds for this wager, as Caesars is slight lower at +108.

Player prop: Vladimir Guerrero to hit a home run vs. Red Sox (+475 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero has slashed .214/.353/.571 in 28 career at-bats against Boston Red Sox righty Nick Pivetta. He has struck out just four times in that span, and four of his six hits have gone for extra bases, including three home runs.

Guerrero has homered in three consecutive games after hitting just one home run in his previous 15, while Pivetta has induced a 0.61 GO/AO ratio against right-handed batters, compared to a 0.84 ratio against lefties.

The Blue Jays slugger is tied for the sixth-most home runs before age 25, per StatsCentre, and we would not be shocked if he hits a home run in his fourth consecutive game at the Rogers Centre for the first time in his career.

With Caesars as low as +370 for this wager, bet365 becomes our no-brainer go-to shop.

Sunday’s MLB game picks

Total: Giants-Rockies Under 12 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

San Francisco Giants southpaw Sean Manaea has done everything manager Gabe Kapler has asked of him, including making spot starts and being used as a bulk reliever. He has clearly earned the trust of his manager as he has been pegged for his second start since May, as he allowed two hits in 5 2/3 innings in his last outing. He faces a Colorado Rockies lineup that ranks last in wRC+ in home games, while the Giants rank 25th or worse in wOBA and OPS since Aug. 1. Thus, we trust Rockies righty Chris Flexen, whose home ERA is 3.64 runs better than his road ERA, and he has allowed more than four runs once in his previous five starts.

The Under is 7-5 in the 12 meetings between these NL West rivals this season and has cashed in just 39.7% of the games San Francisco has been favored (31-47-2).

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We do not mind paying the slight extra -115 juice at BetMGM to back the Under of 12 runs, as we are getting an extra half-run of value compared to FanDuel and BetRivers, which offer a total of 11.5.

MLB best bets made 9/17/2023 at 7:31 a.m. ET.

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MLB betting odds pages

World Series OddsMLB Hits Leader OddsMLB RBI Leader Odds
MLB Rookie of the Year OddsMLB Wins Leader OddsMLB Win Totals
MLB MVP OddsMLB Home Run Leader OddsMLB Best Regular Season Record Odds
MLB Cy Young Award OddsMLB Strikeout Leader OddsMLB Home Run Derby Odds
MLB Stolen Base Leader Odds

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.