Saturday's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Will Henderson Keep Orioles’ June Power Streak Going?

The weekend is jam-packed with Major League Baseball action, as we offer our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Saturday based on the best MLB odds.

It is always a show when Pittsburgh Pirates righty Paul Skenes takes the mound, and he looks to bolster his Rookie of the Year odds when facing the Atlanta Braves at 4:10 p.m. ET at Truist Park.

Elsewhere, arguably the greatest rivalry in Major League Baseball takes center stage for the seventh time this season as the San Francisco Giants host the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have won five of seven meetings this year.

And on the American League side, the most anticipated series of the weekend is the ALDS rematch between the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers, which comes after the Rangers swept the 101-win Orioles on their way to the World Series title.

Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Saturday.

Saturday’s MLB expert picks

MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Nestor Cortes Over 2.5 earned runs (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Tanner Bibee Over 5.5 strikeouts (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Alex Bregman Over 0.5 runs (-103 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+340 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

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MLB player props

Nestor Cortes Over 2.5 earned runs ⭐⭐⭐

Game info: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays | Moneyline: Yankees (-125 via Betway) | Total: 8.5 via Betway | Start time: 3:07 p.m. ET

The Yankees’ starting rotation was the biggest reason the club was on pace for 110 wins after starting 32-15. It's also a big reason why the team had gone 3-9 over the last 12 games entering Friday.

The Yankees rotation was lights out over the first 75 games, pitching to a 2.86 ERA, a .213 OBA, .646 opponent’s OPS, and averaged 5.67 innings per start. However, over the previous eight games entering Friday, the rotation ERA was 10.25 while pitching to a .333 OBA, a 1.114 opponent’s OPS, and averaged 4.50 innings per start.

The rotation as a whole had allowed five-plus earned runs in five of the previous eight starts. While none of those were from Cortes, he has still struggled mightily on the road this season, sporting an 0-3 record and 5.57 ERA compared to a 1.84 ERA at Yankee Stadium. 

This is a three-star play, as the Over has cashed in 11 of Toronto’s last 16 home games, and the Blue Jays getting to Cortes is the biggest reason we expect it to cash again.

Best odds: -120 via BetMGM

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Tanner Bibee Over 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals | Moneyline: Pick 'em (-110 via Betway) | Total: 7.5 via Betway | Start time: 4:10 p.m. ET

Since the calendar turned to May, Bibee ranks fifth among all qualified starting pitchers with an 11.41 K/9 rate. Bibee has also made back-to-back quality starts and induced 14 whiffs and a 27% CSW% in his last start against one of the most potent offenses in baseball (Orioles), and he's recorded an absurd 33.7% strikeout rate while pitching to a 2.41 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a .190 OBA in his last seven starts.

Bibee has recorded seven-plus strikeouts six times in that seven-start span. We are backing his Over as a four-star play, as one of those seven-strikeout performances came against the Kansas City Royals on June 6, when he induced 16 whiffs on 49 swings and a 31% CSW%.

In addition, the Royals offense has been ice-cold over a 6-12 stretch entering Friday, collectively slashing .200/.262/.333 in that span while striking out in 20.7% of their at-bats. Those that believe Bibee is due for another seven-strikeout performance will find more value with the +200 odds that FanDuel offers for its alternate strikeout line, compared to the +180 for bet365’s “Pitcher Strikeouts Milestones” prop. 

Best odds: -102 via FanDuel

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Alex Bregman Over 0.5 runs ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Houston Astros vs. New York Mets | Moneyline: Astros (-120 via Betway) | Total: 8.5 via Betway | Start time: 4:10 p.m. ET

Lead-off hitter Jose Altuve is usually considered the sparkplug of the Astros offense, and while his 50 runs are 15 more than Bregman has on the season, the odds suggest there is more value backing Bregman’s chances to score a run (Altuve is -111 at Caesars) - especially given how he has played of late. 

Bregman has scored at least one run in five of seven games, a stretch where Houston has averaged 6.6 runs per game. Bregman also slashed .333/.391/.476 over the last seven days entering Friday, and his .339 on-base percentage against right-handed pitching is actually better than Altuve’s .333 OBP.

The Astros should score plenty against Mets righty Tylor Megill, who ranks in the 29th percentile in xERA and the seventh percentile in barrels and hard-hit rate. That makes Bregman to score at least one run a confident four-star play.

Best odds: -103 via Caesars

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Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run ⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles | Moneyline: Orioles (-160 via Betway) | Total: 9.5 via Betway | Start time: 7:15 p.m. ET

There are still two more days left in June, and the Orioles have already broken the franchise record for home runs in the month (58), surpassing the 56 hit by the 2016 team.

Henderson is second on the team with eight home runs this month, and we like his chances of going deep more than teammate Anthony Santander (12 HR), as Rangers righty Michael Lorenzen has allowed a .389 OPS to left-handed batters but a .898 OPS to righties.

Per Just Baseball on X, Henderson is on pace to record the most fWAR by a shortstop in a single season since 1900. He has already hit eight lead-off home runs this season, and given that Lorenzen’s HR/9 rate is on pace to increase for the fourth straight season, we may cash this three-star play as early as the first at-bat - especially since Lorenzen has allowed two-plus home runs in two of his previous four starts.

The fact that only FanDuel has odds for any Orioles hitter to hit a home run at the moment suggests there might be something going on with the Rangers’ pitching news, so be sure to check back and compare Henderson’s home run odds against the rest of our best sportsbooks when those numbers are solidified.

Best odds: +340 via FanDuel

MLB player props made Saturday at 7:38 a.m. ET.

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