College Football Player Props Week 14: Predictions, Picks for Conference Championship Week
With league bragging rights and much lying ahead, here are our top college football player props based on the best NCAAF odds at our best sports betting apps of Conference Championship Week.
My first regular season of betting on college football player props was a smashing success.
With four straight winning weeks to close out the regular season, my favorite player props for Sportsbook Review resulted in a total net gain in the double-digit units. We got hot at the right time, but it means nothing if we lose it all in the postseason.
Conference championship weekend serves as a massive moment for players and bettors alike, converging the most significant events in sports.
As intense matchups generate anticipation, they offer an opportunity to harness the excitement and potential profits of these games. The weekend overflows with captivating narratives and showdowns, immersing fans in an intense experience and providing bettors with a thrilling chance to engage in the high stakes and capitalize on the pivotal nature of these contests.
To accompany this week's best bets and upset picks, here are our best college football player props for Conference Championship Week (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
College football player props for Week 14
- Jaydon Blue Over 30.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) - Oklahoma State vs. Texas ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Roydell Williams anytime touchdown (+160 via bet365) - Alabama vs. Georgia ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Trey Benson Under 92.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM) - Florida State vs. Louisville ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Diego Pavia Over 167.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) - New Mexico State vs. Liberty ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
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College football player props for Saturday Week 14
Jaydon Blue Over 30.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Last week, we cashed an Under at one of our college football betting sites on CJ Baxter's rushing prop after the freshman posted a triple-digit rushing yards output in the previous game. But with Texas running back Jaydon Blue coming off a 10-carry, 121-yard performance in the regular-season finale, we see value in his Over this week.
The thesis behind fading Baxter against Texas Tech was that it seemed unlikely that Texas would ditch its committee approach in the run game. While Baxter ultimately suffered a hip injury in the second half, that still proved true when both running backs were healthy in the first half.
Baxter got the start and led the team in first-half carries with eight, turning those into 43 yards. Blue remained involved, however, earning five carries and producing 94 yards and a touchdown. Blue showed that he's a big play waiting to happen with his 69-yard touchdown run early in the second quarter.
We do expect Baxter to be the top option in the backfield again, which is why his rushing prop is trading at around 92.5 yards ahead of the Big 12 Championship Game. But don't expect the Longhorns to completely go away from Blue, who was once considered the top running back prospect in his recruiting class back in the day. If the game ends up as lopsided as the two-touchdown spread would indicate, there is an avenue for Blue to get even more work to help put things away.
With a projection north of 40 rushing yards, take this current Over offered by FanDuel. None of our other best sportsbooks are even offering a market for the Texas backfield, likely due to the ambiguity ahead of this matchup against Oklahoma State. Let's take advantage of that, especially when markets at our college football betting sites are as sharp as ever during Conference Championship Week.
For more on the Big 12 Championship matchup, see our Brenden Schaeffer's Oklahoma State vs. Texas predictions.
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Jaydon Blue player prop made 11/30/2023 at 2:45 p.m. ET.
Roydell Williams anytime touchdown (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is your weekly reminder that touchdowns are fluky, but this price is too good to pass up as of Thursday evening. For one, this number will be long gone by kickoff.
Alabama beat reporter Austin Hannon, who works for Bama Central, reported on Wednesday that starting running back Jase McClellan missed his third straight practice and doesn't expect him to be available for the SEC title game. And while our best sportsbooks were wise enough not to release Alabama-related rushing props, we can take advantage of this information by shopping in the anytime touchdown market at one of our college football betting sites.
Three different shops have McClellan listed with the best anytime touchdown odds among Alabama running backs, pricing him between +110 and +150. Backup running back Roydell Williams, meanwhile, is trading between +120 and +160. If McClellan is unable to go, Williams is in line to be the lead back and will certainly have better TD odds by Saturday.
Even as the No. 2 option, Williams has scored in back-to-back games and three of his last four outings. The 5-foot-10, 214-pound senior tailback should be the top option in the red zone against a Georgia defense that has given up 12 rushing touchdown on the year, including five in the last three outings.
The markets at our college football betting sites this game could feature plenty of scoring with a total above 54, and we want in on the action by having a nice plus-money prop on Williams to find pay dirt in the SEC Championship Game.
For more on the SEC Championship game, see Mike Spector's Georgia vs. Alabama prediction.
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Roydell Williams player prop made 11/30/2023 at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Trey Benson Under 92.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
There is an argument that Florida State's CFP hopes hinge on how running back Trey Benson does in the ACC title game. With starting quarterback Jordan Travis sidelined, Benson is expected to shoulder much of the offensive workload. That was the case in the regular-season finale when Benson ran for 95 yards and three touchdowns on a season-high 19 rushing attempts.
The problem is, Louisville knows that too. The Cardinals have fared well at stopping the run already this year, ranking 36th in PFF run defense and top-10 in rushing EPA allowed during a 10-2 campaign. Louisville has held seven of its last 10 opponents below this rushing yardage prop set for Benson.
With backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker listed as a game-time decision, the Cardinals have even more reason to load the box to stop the run on a night when weather might limit the passing attack. With a projection of 72 yards for Benson, we have plenty of room to confidently take this Under while adding to our Louisville vs. Florida State predictions.
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Trey Benson player prop made 12/1/2023 at 3:15 p.m. ET.
College football player props for Friday Week 14
Diego Pavia Over 167.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
We are getting a rematch in Friday's Conference USA Championship, as Liberty prevailed with a 33-17 win in Week 2's head-to-head matchup. But New Mexico State, which led 17-13 midway through the second period, isn't the same team it was back then. A big part of that is because of the play of quarterback Diego Pavia.
Pavia had arguably his worst performance of the season against the Flames, going 12-for-21 through for the air to finish with 150 yards and two interceptions. He added 63 yards on nine rushing attempts, which is why his rushing prop of 36.5 is also worth a look.
But we have seen Pavia have more success as a passer of late, clearing this mark in seven of 10 games since that loss to Liberty. He is averaging 209.7 passing yards per game for a 10-3 Aggies squad that is more live in this game than the double-digit spread suggests.
Pavia is also easy to root for. He has a swagger that has been instrumental in leading New Mexico State to its first double-digit win season since 1960. He recently apologized in his first interview since a video surfaced of him appearing to urinate on the New Mexico practice field, adding a whole different element ahead of this primetime matchup.
With a projection of 202 passing yards against Liberty, we have more than a 20% edge on this current Over at BetMGM. That price is worth taking advantage of when you consider FanDuel has set this passing prop 10 yards higher, while the rest of the best sports betting apps also seem to be following suit.
For more on this matchup, check out our New Mexico State vs. Liberty prediction from Phillip Wood.
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Diego Pavia player prop made 11/30/2023 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
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