New Mexico State vs. Liberty Prediction, Picks & Odds: Conference USA Championship
Friday's Conference USA Championship features the New Mexico State Aggies clashing with the undefeated Liberty Flames, and we have you covered with our best New Mexico State vs. Liberty prediction based on the college football odds at our best college football betting sites.
During their Week 2 clash against the New Mexico State Aggies, the Liberty Flames showcased a commanding performance, excelling in both offense and defense en route to a resounding 33-17 victory. Outgaining the Aggies with 526 yards compared to 341, securing a notable 3-1 turnover advantage, and dominating time of possession by nearly 16 minutes, the Flames exhibited an impressive display of control and efficiency. These statistics highlighted their comprehensive mastery in multiple facets of the game, cementing their dominance throughout the matchup.
Despite winning eight consecutive games, the Aggies are 10.5-point underdogs against one of the only five undefeated teams remaining in college football.
As part of our college football predictions for Week 14 and college football best bets, here is our best New Mexico State vs. Liberty prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
New Mexico State vs. Liberty prediction: Conference USA Championship
Liberty team total Over 34.5 (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Since these two teams met back on Sept. 9, both have dictated the pace of play against their subsequent opponents.
Liberty has done so with its offense, scoring 38-plus points in six straight games and eight of its last 10 since that Week 2 matchup. Meanwhile, New Mexico State is allowing just 19.7 points per game this season, the 20th-best mark in college football.
These different styles make this a tough game to pick. In the first meeting, the Aggies led 17-13 midway through in the second quarter before the Flames scored 20 unanswered to secure the victory. Was the closeness of that game a fluke, or was Liberty lucky to cover?
That ambiguity, in part, eliminates a play on the spread. However, we do like the Flames to score plenty in this game.
Liberty is playing for an undefeated season and conference title in its home stadium, a place where it's scored at least 33 points in six of seven games this season. New Mexico State's defensive numbers are also inflated thanks to playing a lot of struggling Conference USA offenses.
Liberty QB Kaidon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley are not average Conference USA players, and they’re going to expose the Aggies in ways other teams couldn’t.
While we expect the Flames to score plenty, the Aggies’ offense is an unknown. They’ve scored 28.2 points per game, and their 31-10 road win over the Auburn Tigers in Week 12 was incredibly impressive. However, the offense has been inconsistent this season, and there is a chance Liberty holds them below 20 points for the second time this year.
Therefore, the safest bet at our best college football betting sites for this game is to simply back the best unit on the field, which is the Flames’ offense.
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New Mexico State vs. Liberty best odds
DraftKings (+100)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 34.5 | N/A | N/A | Over 34.5 | Over 34 |
| +100 | N/A | N/A | +100 | -110 |
Only three of our best sportsbooks have this prop available at the time of writing. While we’d love to be able to get this a little lower, the prices for Over 32.5 or lower are very high. Therefore, we recommend playing Over 34.5 at DraftKings or Caesars now, then getting in at one of the sportsbooks without this prop listed if they come in at a lower total for -110 or better.
With the total for this game dropping at our best sports betting apps, there is a good chance that you can get this number lower closer to kickoff. Therefore, if you’re uncomfortable taking Over 34.5 at the price of +100, a wait-and-see approach could work at some of our college football betting sites.
New Mexico State vs. Liberty odds
New Mexico State vs. Liberty odds analysis
Liberty opened as a 13.5-point favorite, but the spread has dropped to 10.5 or 11 across our best sports betting apps. While 56% of wagers are backing the Flames to cover the spread, oddsmakers don’t seem overly concerned with public action, so look for this number to stay between 10.5 and 12.5 without passing any key numbers.
As for the total, the number opened at 56.5, and it has already dropped to 56 or 55.5 at three of the five best sports betting sites. The first meeting between these two teams only went for 50 points, and 67% of bettors are backing the Under in the rematch. Those two factors all but ensure that this number will continue to drop throughout the week.
New Mexico State vs. Liberty game info
- When: Friday, Dec., 1 at 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA
- How to watch: CBSSN
- Weather: 44 degrees, 5-mph winds, 25% chance of precipitation
New Mexico State vs. Liberty prediction made 11/29/2023 at 1:02 p.m. ET.
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