Iowa vs. Michigan Prediction: Week 4 Odds, Picks & Best Bet

Most pundits will joke that if you like defense and field position battles, you’ll love this old school Big Ten clash between No. 17 Iowa and No. 18 Michigan. But my Iowa vs. Michigan prediction goes against that inclination to expect a rock fight, as I’m making the contrarian play and expecting a higher-scoring game to break out. 

Kickoff from Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor is set for 3:30 p.m. ET today, airing on CBS. Michigan is a 5.5-point betting favorite.

🏈 Iowa vs. Michigan picks & predictions

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 4 based on the latest college football odds.

Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.82 units

💰 Iowa vs. Michigan prediction & best bet

Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.

Over 38.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

The O/U of 38.5 points in this Big Ten battle is at least six points lower than any other total in a game involving a ranked team this weekend. Oddsmakers have baked in the fact that Iowa ranks No. 1 in total defense (176.7 yards per game) and scoring defense (4.3 points per game) while Michigan is also a top 10 total defense (220 yards per game). But I am always one to fade a popular narrative or a lopsided betting split, which is what I’m doing in this game that has seen 53% of the wagers come in on the low Under.

Michigan’s defense is not Northern Iowa’s defense, but what the Hawkeyes did in Week 3 was impressive. Iowa rushed for its seventh-most yards in a game in program history (422), while three different players had 100 or more yards on the ground. That is why I’m confident in the Hawkeyes’ ability to move the ball even if running back Kamari Moulton is out with an injury.

This is a matchup of two defensive units that rank in the top 15 nationally in opponent points per drive, but SP+ metrics tell a different story with this game projected to have 46 points scored.

Bryce Underwood continues to make strides

Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood’s confidence should be growing ever since the home upset of Oklahoma. Underwood and the Michigan offense erupted for 28 points in the third quarter alone last week, and its three leading rushers (Underwood, Savion Hiter, and Jordan Marshall) should all be fresh after none carried more than 12 times. 

Over time, the Wolverines should get more comfortable in the Jason Beck-coached offense that had Utah as one of nine teams nationally to average 200-plus yards rushing and passing last season.

I’m also buying Iowa’s offensive line standing up to Michigan’s defense that ranks in the top 10 nationally in sacks, as the Hawkeyes have only allowed one sack through three games. And though it has come against weaker competition for the most part outside of the Iowa State game, the Hawkeyes have eclipsed the 500-yard milestone twice.

Score prediction: Michigan 24, Iowa 20

📊 Iowa vs. Michigan odds

See the latest college football odds for every Week 4 matchup.

Iowa vs. Michigan opening odds

• Moneyline: Iowa +165 | Michigan -200
• Spread: Iowa +5.5 (-110) | Michigan -5.5 (-108)
• Over/Under: Over 38.5 (-105) | Under 38.5 (-115)

📺 How to watch Iowa vs. Michigan: Week 4

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
• Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Mich.)
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: Paramount+