NFL Best Bets for Week 3: Expert Picks & Predictions

If you needed a reminder of how much of a week-to-week league the NFL is, the four teams that lost by at least 20 points in the season opener all won outright and covered the spread in Week 2. That is why my NFL best bets for Week 3 are centered around buying low on the 0-2 Los Angeles Chargers, as no one is giving them a shot against the 2-0 Buffalo Bills.

My other NFL Week 3 predictions also involve another overlooked underdog who is playing with a backup quarterback, as well as a total and a three-leg moneyline parlay. It all looks to build off of last week’s top cashes that included a +105 two-leg moneyline parlay and our Bengals-Texans Under that cashed with over 20 points to spare.

🏈 NFL best bets & expert picks: Week 3

See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 3 based on the latest NFL odds.

Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: +4.02 units

💰 Best NFL bets this week

⚡️ Chargers +7.5 (-120 via FanDuel)

Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh is off to the first 0-2 start of his head coaching career (college or professional). But the two losses have come with a lot of scrutiny, as they’ve become the fourth team in NFL history to start 0-2 against two teams that won three or fewer games the previous season (Cardinals and Raiders).

Because of that, few are giving Los Angeles a chance to beat a Buffalo team that has scored the third-most points in team history through two games (77). But the Bills are still a defense that ranks in the bottom three in passing yards per game and passing touchdowns allowed. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert has faced a 40% pressure rate this season, but should get comfortable against a Bills pass rush that generates pressure at the third-lowest rate (a year after finishing 27th in Pass Rush Win Rate).

Panthers-Browns Over 42.5 (-105 via bet365)

Carolina’s 71 points are the most through two games in team history. The Panthers are also one of four teams this season to score 30-plus points in each game, but they haven’t scored 30 or more points in any three-game span since 2015 (when they reached the Super Bowl).

Cleveland’s seemingly best chance of getting into a shootout is to rely on a physical running game and limit Deshaun Watson’s pass attempts. This is a good matchup to get Quinshon Judkins going, as Carolina has allowed a league-high 406 yards to running backs, and nearly five yards per carry after contact. 

If Cleveland does have to rely on its passing game, at least it has developed a solid pass-catching option in Denzel Boston. Boston has scored a touchdown in both games, and is one of five wide receivers with multiple catches of 40-plus yards. He leads the team with a 23% target share and 35% first-read target share.

🎖️ Commanders +7.5 (-115 via DraftKings)

The line for this Seahawks-Commanders matchup ballooned from the lookahead number of -2.5 to -7.5, all because of Jayden Daniels’ injury news. But that seems disrespectful to veteran Marcus Mariota who now got a full with of repetitions with the starters to prepare.

I don’t usually spin analysis from a fantasy football angle, but Mariota averaged 17.1 fantasy points per game in seven games as a starter last season. To show how competent he was in that role, that average would have ranked him as a top-12 quarterback if extrapolated to a full season.

I’m also fading the public who may already be penciling in Seattle for a second consecutive Super Bowl run while amid the league’s longest active winning streak (12 games). After all, the Seahawks are playing with a backup quarterback of their own too, and one who is due regression from his fourth-ranked QBR.

As long as I am getting a touchdown and the hook, this is an automatic play on the home underdogs.

Bengals + Lions + Chiefs moneyline parlay (+137 via DraftKings)

Cincinnati is coming off a game where it allowed six points, its fewest in a game under head coach Zac Taylor and fewest in a road game since 2015 Week 13.  Through two weeks, the Bengals defense now is tied for eighth in points per game allowed, 10th in yards per play, fifth in  pressure percentage, and second in defensive EPA. Historically, Taylor and Joe Burrow are 9-2 SU in games the week after the Bengals defense allows under 14 points.

Detroit’s Jared Goff has the best passing touchdown-to-interception ratio (6-to-0) among qualified QBs. He should play a clean game against a Jets defense that has gone 19 straight games without an interception (the longest streak by any team without a defensive interception all-time).

Patrick Mahomes is 23-6 in 29 career September starts. Kansas City isn’t in danger of losing to a Dolphins team that is 0-2 for a third straight season. Think of the Chiefs as nothing more than a value adder to this three-leg parlay, which brings the odds from a +106 two-leg parlay to a +137 three-teamer.