Notre Dame vs. Purdue Prediction: Week 4 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
No. 3 Notre Dame looks for its third win over a Big Ten opponent in four games when it travels to West Lafayette to face Purdue, but my Notre Dame vs. Purdue prediction eschews the point spread in favor of the total. I make the case why the Fighting Irish, led by quarterback CJ Carr, should be in for their best game offensively of the season.
Kickoff from Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind., is set for 2 p.m. ET, streaming on Peacock. Notre Dame is a 27.5-point betting favorite.
🏈 Notre Dame vs. Purdue picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 4 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Purdue +27.5 (+100 via bet365) | 0.5 unit to win 0.5 units |
| O/U: Over 58.5 (-105 via DraftKings) | 1 unit to win 0.95 units |
Total wagered: 1.5 units | Max profit: 1.45 units
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💰 Notre Dame vs. Purdue prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Over 58.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
No game that Notre Dame has played in this season has topped 54 points. That is in large part because of how good its defense has been (it shut out Rice in a 52-0 victory) and as a byproduct of facing two Big Ten squads with extremely defense-minded philosophies. While Purdue head coach Barry Odom was a former defensive coordinator at three different schools, Luke Fickell’s Wisconsin defense and Pat Fitzgerald’s Michigan State defense are playing much better at the moment.
Purdue had to make the long trip back from UCLA after allowing 52 points and 645 yards to the Bruins. The Boilermakers now rank 128th out of 138 FBS teams in defensive success rate and EPA/Pass and are also outside the top 110 in EPA/Rush.
The Over is my best bet as opposed to laying the four touchdowns with the Fighting Irish, as Notre Dame jumping out to a large lead early could open the backdoor for some late Purdue scoring.
📡 SBR Edge- September Overs
The Over is 10-1 in Notre Dame's last 11 September road games against non-AP-ranked opponents. And in the last two meetings in 2024 and 2025, these teams have combined for 73 and 86 points.
Notre Dame's offense could exceed this total by itself
It is anyone’s guess how Purdue’s defense will get the Notre Dame offense off the field. The Fighting Irish rank third in the country in EPA/Play, and in the top five in net adjusted EPA/Play.
CJ Carr has seemingly had a quiet start to the season (especially compared to other Heisman-contending quarterbacks like Trinidad Chambliss and Darian Mensah), but he has still completed 72.6% of his passes with a 6-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He is the primary reason Notre Dame ranks fourth in passing success rate.
If Purdue’s offense that ranks 96th or worse in EPA/Rush and EPA/Pass can provide any scoring, this total should soar over the projected number for the third straight year between these in-state rivals.
Score prediction: Notre Dame 45, Purdue 21
📊 Notre Dame vs. Purdue odds
See the latest college football odds for every Week 4 matchup.
Notre Dame vs. Purdue opening odds
- Moneyline: Notre Dame -5000 | Purdue +1900
- Spread: Notre Dame -27.5 (-112) | Purdue +27.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 57.5 (-108) | Under 57.5 (-110)
📺 How to watch Notre Dame vs. Purdue: Week 4
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
- Kickoff: 2 p.m. ET
- Location: Ross-Ade Stadium (West Lafayette, Ind.)
- Streaming: Peacock
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Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
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