Rays vs. Phillies Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Today, Sept. 26

The Philadelphia Phillies’ magic number to nail down the NL’s final playoff spot is down to two as they host the Tampa Bay Rays, and my Rays vs. Phillies prediction expects the home team to need to sweat out its playoff fate on the final day of the regular season. I’m also adding a play on a Rays slugger to cross the plate, while finding value in a Phillies player to hit a home run with the last of my MLB picks.

First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Philadelphia is a -115 betting favorite as it uses a bullpen game in this matchup, while Tampa Bay sends Griffin Jax to the mound.

⚾ Rays vs. Phillies picks & odds today

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🏆 Who will win Rays vs. Phillies?

I expect the pressure of earning the final wild card spot will be too much for the Phillies to overcome, as Tampa Bay takes the middle game of this three-game set.

Score prediction: Rays 5, Phillies 3

💰 Rays vs. Phillies prediction & best bet

Rays ML (-110)

In Griffin Jax’s last start, he threw five scoreless innings and scattered three hits and two walks to win for the second time in his last three outings. He threw so well that he earned a proStuff+ grade of 109, which was second-best among all starting pitchers on the day’s slate.

Tampa Bay is now 3-0 the last three times Jax has toed the rubber. Philadelphia continues to be at a disadvantage with Jesus Luzardo out, as his absence created a void in the rotation that now needs to be patched together with a bullpen game.

🔥 Best Rays vs. Phillies player prop bet

Chandler Simpson Over 0.5 runs (+195)

The speedy Chandler Simpson is one of five players since 2018 with a batting average over .300 with at least 40 stolen bases. He has also been the sport’s hottest hitter over a long stretch, as his .355 batting average from July 9 to the start of the last series against the Yankees led all MLB hitters.

It is unclear what collection of Phillies relievers Simpson will face tonight. But either way he and the rest of the Rays lineup will look to take advantage of their 29th-ranked ERA (5.40) and dead-last 5.72 FIP in September. That is the worst FIP this month by a wide margin, as the only other bullpen with a rating worse than 5.00 is San Francisco’s at 5.24. Those are some bizarre statistics as it is not even like Phillies relievers are overworked, as they entered the series having thrown the fewest innings in the Majors in September (61.2).

This is great value on a player who entered the weekend having scored at least one run in half of his last 16 games.

💣 Rays vs. Phillies home run prediction

Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run (+350)

If Philadelphia does not succumb to the pressure of the playoff chase and earns a playoff spot with a win tonight, it will likely be because MLB home run leader Kyle Schwarber has an imprint on this game.

Schwarber’s 45th home run of the season was also his 232nd with the Phillies, which is one shy of tying Chase Utley for sixth most in franchise history. It also solidified his fourth career 45-homer season (all with the Phillies), and he joined Ryan Howard as the only players in franchise history to accomplish that feat.

It’s going to take a lot of power to hit the ball out of the park in windy and damp conditions, and arguably no hitter has more raw power in the league than Schwarber.

📊 Live Rays vs. Phillies odds

📈 Rays vs. Phillies betting trends

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📺 How to watch Rays vs. Phillies

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, Pa.)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Rays starter: Griffin Jax (8-10, 3.62 ERA)
• Phillies starter: Undecided