Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Saturday, Sept. 26
Every starting pitcher toeing the rubber today is making their last start of the regular season, but potentially lower pitch counts and shorter outings don’t have much impact on my best NRFI bets today.
WIth my top NRFI picks, I’m looking to veteran pitchers Blake Snell and Michael Wacha to throw zeros up early in two rivalry games against the Giants and Guardians, respectively. I also balance out my four-pack of plays with two YRFI wagers while sadly fading a future Cooperstown-bound righty in his last career start.
⚾ Best NRFI bets today: Sept. 26
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ NRFI pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Dodgers vs. Giants NRFI (-135 via bet365) | 1u → 0.74u | In several metrics, Blake Snell has been MLB’s best starting pitcher dating back to 2023 |
| Pirates vs. Tigers YRFI (-106 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.94u | Justin Verlander could get tagged in his last career start |
| Reds vs. Blue Jays YRFI (+105 via bet365) | 1u → 1.05u | Elly De La Cruz could once again ignite Cincinnati’s offense early |
| Guardians vs. Royals NRFI (-105 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.95u | Michael Wacha has allowed a .221 OBA to current Guardians hitters |
Total wagered: 4 units | Max profit: 3.68 units
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💰 Best NRFI bet today
Dodgers vs. Giants (4:05 ET)
- Blake Snell (1.86 ERA) vs. Matt Wilkinson (3.65 ERA)
- NRFI records: Dodgers (82-78) vs. Giants (77-83)
In Blake Snell’s first six starts back from injury, he was lights out with a 4-0 record, 1.04 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and an 11.9 K/9 rate. Despite being oft-injured the last couple of years, he has quietly built quite the resume. Since 2023, he ranks first in ERA, fourth in FIP, first in strikeout rate, first in opponent’s average, second in opponent’s OPS, first in whiff percentage, and first in hard-hit percentage (min. 350 IP).
With Los Angeles being locked into the No. 2 seed, I’m also banking on Dave Roberts resting some veteran sluggers.
📡 SBR Edge: Success in the rivalry
Blake Snell has had tremendous career success against the Giants, posting a 5-1 record and a 1.61 ERA with a 12.9 K/9 rate over nine starts in that split.
🔥 NRFI/YRFI picks today
Pirates vs. Tigers (1:10 ET)
- Lake Bachar (3.49 ERA) vs. Justin Verlander (12.27 ERA)
- YRFI records: Pirates (85-75) vs. Tigers (81-79)
Justin Verlander is a likely first ballot Hall of Famer given his three Cy Young Awards, Rookie of the Year, and MVP honors. But this start is nothing more than a way to commemorate a successful career and for him to not go out missing almost an entire year with an injury, rather than an outing that will garner intense focus.
Verlander hasn’t pitched since his first start of the season on March 30, when the Diamondbacks lit him up for five runs over 3.2 innings (including two in the first). He induced 13 fly balls to just three ground balls in that start, and that is a risky way to face a Pirates lineup that set a franchise record for home runs this season.
Reds vs. Blue Jays (3:07 ET)
- Rhett Lowder (6.01 ERA) vs. Spencer Miles (2.57 ERA)
- YRFI records: Reds (86-74) vs. Blue Jays (81-79)
Elly De La Cruz is one stolen base shy of his first career 30/30 season. If he gets on base in the first, I expect him to waste no time trying to swipe that historic bag.
De La Cruz leads all players in OPS in September, and had a recent 25-game stretch where he batted .418 with 18 extra-base hits, 17 RBI, and 25 runs, while logging a 1.247 OPS.
I also don’t have faith in Rhett Lowder’s ability to pitch a clean first inning. He has a negative win probability added in each of his last five starts. Lowder has also pitched to a 4.06 first-inning ERA, and his .270/.352/.429 slash line numbers are his worst in each category through any of the first three innings.
Guardians vs. Royals (7:10 ET)
- Tanner Bibee (4.35 ERA) vs. Michael Wacha (3.33 ERA)
- NRFI records: Guardians (90-70) vs. Royals (77-83)
Current Guardians hitters have combined for 145 at-bats against Royals righty Michael Wacha. In that split, they have slashed .221/.278/.291 with a 21.4% strikeout rate and fewer than a quarter of their hits going for extra bases.
Wacha’s last start against the Guardians on Aug. 28 was a scoreless eight-inning masterpiece where he recorded a season-high 10 strikeouts. That also brought his numbers over 10 starts against AL Central opponents to a 6-1 record, 1.54 ERA, 48:14 K:BB ratio, 0.81 WHIP, and six home runs allowed in 70 innings. His handling of Jose Ramirez (five singles in 26 at-bats) will go a long way to pitching a scoreless first inning.
🚀 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
With my two NRFI plays of this four-leg parlay, I’m backing two starting pitchers (Snell and Wacha) that have outstanding career numbers against division rivals. Conversely, my two YRFI plays fade a pitcher making his first start in six months, and a team (Reds) who had a 59% YRFI success rate in road games entering the weekend.
💵 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
- Dodgers-Giants NRFI
- Pirates-Tigers YRFI
- Reds-Blue Jays YRFI
- Guardians-Royals NRFI
Best odds: +1201 via bet365 (0.1u -> 1.2u)
❓ NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
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