Ole Miss vs. Florida Prediction: Week 4 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
It’s one of four ranked vs. ranked SEC matchups this weekend as No. 21 Florida hosts No. 4 Ole Miss, and my Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction expects a shootout as both defenses should look sluggish after key victories last week.
It may be shocking for some to find Florida as a 3.5-point betting favorite over an AP top-4 team, but my best bet eschews the point spread for a more confident play on the total, especially with new Heisman favorite Trinidad Chambliss under center for the Rebels. Kickoff from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville is set for Saturday afternoon at 3:30 p.m. ET, airing on ABC.
🏈 Ole Miss vs. Florida picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 4 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Florida -3.5 (+100 via bet365) | 0.5 units to win 0.5 units |
| O/U: Over 58.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | 1 unit to win 0.91 units |
Total wagered: 1.5 units | Max profit: 1.41 units
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💰 Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Over 58.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
So far the Jon Sumrall era at Florida has been a rousing success, as the Gators are 3-0 for the first time since 2019. Much of that success can be attributed to an offense that has scored at least 40 points in three straight games to open a season for the first time since 2007.
On the other side, Trinidad Chambliss brings his best against top opponents. Even before facing LSU, against whom he threw for a career-high 363 yards, he was 5-2 against ranked opponents while logging an 87 Total QBR, completing 61% of his passes, and averaging 307 passing yards per game.
This would be a much more confident wager if Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy suits up (right now he is a game-time decision with a shoulder injury). Either way, needing the Over is not a bad position to be in if the ball needs to be in Chambliss’ hands more, although I expect the line to drop some (and I’d reinvest in the Over at the lower number) if Lacy is ruled out.
📡 SBR Edge- Bucking an Under trend
The Under has cashed in eight of Florida's last nine games as a favorite. But in the most recent matchup between these teams last year, the Over cashed in a 34-24 victory in a game that had a projected total of 53.5 points.
Chambliss money on third down
Aside from the 363 passing yards against an LSU defense that was ranked No. 1 in total defense and sacks entering last week, I was most impressed with Chambliss’ poise and execution on third down.
Over the first two games, Chambliss was a combined 4-of-12 passing on third down, while averaging 2.3 yards per attempt and logging a 0-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But on third down against LSU, Chambliss completed 10 of 11 passes for 11.7 yards per attempt, and two touchdowns to one interception.
Score prediction: Florida 34, Ole Miss 28
📊 Live Ole Miss vs. Florida odds
See the latest college football odds for every Week 4 matchup.
Ole Miss vs. Florida opening odds
- Moneyline: Ole Miss -110 | Florida -108
- Spread: Ole Miss +1 (-110) | Florida -1 (-108)
- Over/Under: Over 58.5 (-105) | Under 58.5 (-115)
📺 How to watch Ole Miss vs. Florida: Week 4
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (Gainesville, Fla.)
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: ESPN Unlimited
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Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
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