Oregon vs. USC Prediction: Week 4 Odds, Picks & Best Bet

It’s an old school Pac-10 rivalry between two teams that now reside in the Big Ten as No. 20 Oregon looks to avoid a dreaded second loss on the road against No. 12 USC. My Oregon vs. USC prediction is buying the Ducks as road favorites and believes they have what it takes to get back into the national championship conversation.

Kickoff from Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday (NBC). Oregon is a 2.5-point betting favorite.

🏈 Oregon vs. USC picks & predictions

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 4 based on the latest college football odds.

Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.8 units

💰 Oregon vs. USC prediction & best bet

Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.

🦆 Oregon -2.5 (-110 via FanDuel)

USC is 4-0 on the season, but I’m not buying its undefeated start and No. 12 AP Poll ranking. The Trojans are 1-3 ATS despite only playing one road game, which was an uninspired seven-point victory over a Rutgers team that lost to UMass. USC is actually 1-7 ATS in its last eight dating back further, and I expect Oregon to look its best when its needed most.

Despite playing one of the least daunting non-conference schedules (San Jose State, Fresno State, and Louisiana), the Trojans rank outside the top 100 in defensive success rate. By comparison, Oregon is the rightful favorite who ranks in the top 12 in both EPA/Play on offense and defense.

While Oregon has one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country in Dante Moore, it’s the running game against USC’s run defense that ranks outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush that should make the difference.

It was worth it to wait later in the week to make this wager, as Oregon finally moved off the key number of -3 on Thursday afternoon. Other top sports betting sites like bet365 are offering +100 odds to lay 3.5 points, but I'd much rather back the favorites at lower than the key number, especially at standard -110 juice (52.38% implied odds).

Third down regression for USC could loom large

USC is among the FBS leaders in third-down conversion rate, as it has been successful on 30 of 46 attempts (65.2%). But Oregon’s defense should provide great resistance as it ranks 14th in that metric, allowing opponents to convert just 22% of third-down attempts (nine of 41).

Further helping Oregon’s case is that USC is likely to be without a perimeter weapon for the second straight week. True freshman wide receiver Trent Mosley is doubtful with a knee injury and would be a big loss after logging 13 receptions for 255 yards and four touchdowns over the first three games. While Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava has been hot, he will have difficulty navigating a Ducks secondary that ranks 14th in PFF’s coverage grade.

Score prediction: Oregon 31, USC 27

📊 Live Oregon vs. USC odds

See the latest college football odds for every Week 4 matchup.

Oregon vs. USC opening odds

• Moneyline: Oregon -102 | USC -118
• Spread: Oregon +1.5 (-110) | USC -1.5 (-110)
• Over/Under: Over 63.5 (-110) | Under 63.5 (-108)

📺 How to watch Oregon vs. USC: Week 4

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles, Calif.)
• TV: NBC
• Streaming: Peacock