Texas A&M vs. LSU Prediction: Week 4 Odds, Picks & Best Bet

How quickly both No. 23 Texas A&M and No. 10 LSU can shake off losses as favorites last week will go a long way to determining who will emerge victorious in a matchup that feels like a College Football Playoff elimination game. My Texas A&M vs. LSU prediction believes this total is too high as both teams should play a little more close to the vest.

This SEC clash of 2-1 teams kicks off from Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday night, airing on ABC. LSU is an 8.5-point betting favorite.

🏈 Texas A&M vs. LSU picks & predictions

See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 4 based on the latest college football odds.

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💰 Texas A&M vs. LSU prediction & best bet

Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.

Under 51.5 (-105 via bet365)

Was LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt actually hurt when he was listed on the injury report early last week as doubtful, or did he just turn in a poor performance in a raucous atmosphere in Oxford? Either way, his 59.3% completion percentage and 158 passing yards, not to mention his five interceptions through three weeks are not going to cut it against consistently good competition.

Though Texas A&M is coming off a disappointing loss as 16.5-point favorites to Kentucky, its defense has still been stingy allowing 17 points per game. The Aggies now do not have to deal with a slower-paced Lane Kiffin team than his squads have played with in the past. LSU entered last week running plays on an average of 33.8 seconds between snaps, the slowest from a Kiffin-coached team since 2020. 

My early Texas A&M vs. LSU prediction called for laying the points with the home favorites. But the point spread has been all over the place, opening at -8 and shooting up as high as -9.5 before returning close to the original number. Thus, instead of trying to make sense of it all, I’m more comfortable with a play on the Under on anything as low as 51.5.

LSU's defense has held up well despite facing elite competition

LSU opened the season with Clemson and last week had to face current Heisman Trophy favorite Trinidad Chambliss. Despite all of that, the Tigers defense still ranks in the top 10 in yards per play allowed (3.8), and faces a Texas A&M offense that averages just over five yards per play.

In addition, the Tigers have an elite pass rusher in Ole Miss transfer Princewill Umanmielen, who is tied for the FBS lead in sacks. His six sacks through three games are already more than any LSU defender had all of last year. He should be able to generate tons of pressure on Marcel Reed, a quarterback who tends to hold onto the ball.

It will also be interesting to see how aggressive Texas A&M is on fourth down. Aggies kickers are a perfect 18-for-18 on extra points and field goals this season, and head coach Mike Elko’s trust in his special teams could lead to more conservative play-calling.

Score prediction: LSU 28, Texas A&M 17

📊 Live Texas A&M vs. LSU odds

See the latest college football odds for every Week 4 matchup.

Texas A&M vs. LSU opening odds

• Moneyline: Texas A&M +275 | LSU -350
• Spread: Texas A&M +8 (-110) | LSU -8 (-108)
• Over/Under: Over 53.5 (-108) | Under 53.5 (-110)

📺 How to watch Texas A&M vs. LSU: Week 4

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
• Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Tiger Stadium (Baton Rouge, La.)
• TV: ABC
• Streaming: ESPN Unlimited