Wisconsin vs. Penn State Prediction: Week 4 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
After breezing through a soft non-conference schedule, No. 13 Penn State looks to prove its legitimacy in its first true test in a home game against Wisconsin. But my Wisconsin vs. Penn State prediction expects injuries to key Nittany Lions players to be the reason this game stays under its projected total.
Kickoff from Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa., is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET, streaming on Peacock. Penn State is a 10.5-point betting favorite.
🏈 Wisconsin vs. Penn State picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 4 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Bet size |
|---|---|
| ATS: Wisconsin +10.5 (-122 via DraftKings) | 1 unit to win 0.82 units |
| O/U: Under 44.5 (-115 via bet365) | 1 unit to win 0.87 units |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.69 units
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💰 Wisconsin vs. Penn State prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Under 44.5 (-115 via bet365)
Penn State is one of 10 Power 4 schools that have yet to play an opponent that was ranked in the top 60 in FPI at the start of the game (and it’s one of seven such Big Ten schools). Therefore, I’m taking the Nittany Lions’ results with somewhat of a grain of salt relative to the lack of competition. But a big takeaway from their three games thus far is a rock-solid defense that has allowed just nine points (three field goals) in non-garbage time, while we know Wisconsin had trouble moving the ball against an elite Notre Dame defense (16 first downs, 2.2 yards per rush).
I’d normally back Wisconsin in this spot if I could find any line of more than 10 points that wasn't juiced as high as it is at DraftKings. But since the spread moved down a point from an opening number of +11.5, I am leaning to the Under, namely because of Penn State’s concerning injury to Koby Howard. Howard’s 12 catches are four more than the next closest teammate, and his 344 receiving yards are almost triple that of the second-leading receiver. His big play ability (28.7 yards per reception) will be missed.
📡 SBR Edge: Badgers defense can be elite
We've seen Wisconsin's defense perform at a high level against elite competition, like when it held Notre Dame to 29 rushing yards and 13 points in the first half of the season opener. That point total could've been lower if not for setting Notre Dame up in the red zone at the 13-yard line after a fumbled kickoff for the Fighting Irish's only first-half touchdown.
Howard's injury not the only one that will have an impact
Koby Howard’s injury cannot be understated, as his field stretching ability with at least one reception of 40-plus yards in each game would have given Wisconsin’s defense a headache to prepare for.
Not only was much of Penn State’s offense built around Howard’s skill set, but it is now facing another injury to one of the best offseason transfer portal additions. Texas State transfer Brock Riker has been the anchor of the Nittany Lions offensive line thus far. He has allowed zero pressures or sacks and has not recorded a blown block, with just one penalty over the first 130 snaps. He left last week’s win against Buffalo with an injury, and it would be a big factor in this game if he is ruled out or not 100% against Luke Fickell’s stout Wisconsin defensive line.
Score prediction: Penn State 24, Wisconsin 17
📊 Wisconsin vs. Penn State odds
See the latest college football odds for every Week 4 matchup.
Wisconsin vs. Penn State opening odds
- Moneyline: Wisconsin +360 | Penn State -450
- Spread: Wisconsin +10.5 (-108) | Penn State -10.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-108)
📺 How to watch Wisconsin vs. Penn State: Week 4
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 26
- Kickoff: 5 p.m. ET
- Location: Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pa.)
- Streaming: Peacock
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Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
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