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College football best bets

The College Football Playoff will be set following this week's college football conference championship games, and we have you covered with a four-pack of college football player props and best bets for Championship Week based on the best NCAAF odds at our best college football betting sites.

Florida State benefitted the most from this week's CFP rankings, positioning itself as the No. 4 team and likely securing a playoff spot if it beats Louisville.

However, Ohio State, ranked sixth as the second-highest-rated one-loss team, finds itself in a different situation. It's the only team in the top eight not playing this weekend.  

Unique matchups characterize nearly all of the Power Five conference championship games, with the only rematch of a regular-season contest coming between No. 3 Washington and No. 5 Oregon on Friday night.

As part of our Week 14 CFB predictions and Week 14 CFB player props for Conference Championship weekend, here are our college football player props and best bets for the conference championship games to accompany our college football expert picks for Week 14 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

College football best bets for Conference Championship Week

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Conference Championship Week college football schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

College football player props for Conference Championship Week

Jalen Milroe (Alabama) Over 38.5 rushing yards vs. Georgia (-115 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Georgia is still arguably the best team in the country and has a legitimate chance to be the first three-peat national champion in the AP poll era. But this Bulldogs defense does not control opposing running games like the last two years, as Georgia ranks 56th in Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate.

While Georgia ranks eighth among SEC defenses in Havoc, a big reason is its lack of need to blitz or send additional rushers, as it often plays with a big lead. However, we expect Alabama to put much more pressure on the Bulldogs defense than they are accustomed to, which should lead to a big day for the elusive Milroe on the ground. 

The Crimson Tide offensive line has done a great job keeping Milroe clean of late, as he was sacked 30 times through his first seven starts but has been sacked just four times in the previous four games. And when Milroe has been under pressure, his elite running ability (seven rushing touchdowns and two games with 106-plus rushing yards in the last four weeks) has bailed the offense on multiple occasions.

Georgia only faced one of two quarterbacks (Jaxson Dart and Payton Thorne) that rank in the top 30 of the SEC in rushing, but Thorne gave the Bulldogs fits with 92 rushing yards and 7.7 yards per carry.   

DraftKings and bet365 are the only two sportsbooks currently offering rushing props for Milroe, as FanDuel only has passing props available. Still, we are confident in Milroe's willingness to use his legs, as his anytime touchdown odds are as high as -140 at DraftKings.

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Peny Boone (Toledo) Under 111.5 rushing yards vs. Miami (OH) (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Toledo running back Peny Boone was snubbed from the Doak Walker Award semifinalist list after he finished the regular season as the nation's fifth-leading rusher (1,359 yards) and led all running backs with a 7.4 yards per carry average (min. 100 attempts).

However, while Boone has run for 112-plus yards in three of the last four games and eight of 10, one of those games he did not crack that plateau was on October 21 against Miami (OH).

In that Week 8 meeting, the RedHawks limited Boone to just 73 yards on 17 carries, and his 4.3 yards per carry were his second-lowest of the season (and worst in conference play). The Rockets had 46 rushing attempts in that game for just 3.4 yards per carry, and we expect them to abandon the run more quickly in this rematch if they continue to have limited success. 

Miami (OH) is hot, having won 10 of 11 games, and ranks fifth nationally in explosiveness allowed. There is also an avenue for the RedHawks to dominate time of possession, as Toledo is a below-average defensive team in Rushing Success Rate (ranks 76th), Rushing Plays PPA (76th), and Line Yards (95th).

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Blake Corum (Michigan) to score two or more touchdowns vs. Iowa (+140 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Michigan running back Blake Corum has scored 22 touchdowns this season (all rushing), the most in a single season in school history.

And with head coach Jim Harbaugh back on the sidelines after a three-game suspension, we figure he will want to ride his bell-cow back to a third consecutive Big Ten Conference championship while also getting him closer to breaking Anthony Thomas's school record of 55 rushing touchdowns (Corum enters this week with 53 rushing touchdowns in his career).

Corum has scored multiple touchdowns in four consecutive games and five of the previous six, and even though the Hawkeyes are 9-2 to the Under this season, Michigan has seen the Over cash in four of its last five games, and Corum's propensity for finding the endzone is a big reason why.

We get the best value here using our DraftKings promo code, as some of our other best sports betting apps offer this as low as -105.

College football game picks for Conference Championship Week

SMU-Tulane Under 47.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Over has cashed in the last three meetings between SMU and Tulane, with the winning team scoring at least 55 points in two. However, while SMU is known for a high-powered offense that ranks tied for fourth nationally in scoring (41.8 points per game), the Mustangs will be without starting quarterback Preston Stone, who suffered a significant leg injury last week.

In his absence, three other Mustangs combined to throw 10 passes last week, but none averaged more than 6.5 yards per attempt. SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee spoke confidently in the press conference, saying, "Fortunately for us, there's probably not a lot of teams that if they lost their starting quarterback can feel as good as we do," but we are much lower on the Mustangs offense with Kevin Jennings at quarterback, considering he has thrown just 46 career passes.

Conversely, Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt does not come into this game with the best momentum, as his two worst QBR outputs of the season have come in the last three weeks. Pratt completed a season-low 40.9% of his passes against UTSA, and while he has not been sacked more than twice in a game this season, he now faces a Mustangs pass rush ranked in the top 20 in sack percentage and pressure rate.

This is also a Mustangs defense that ranks in the top five nationally in Success Rate, Passing Success Rate, and EPA/Pass Allowed, so we expect this game to be much more of a defensive struggle than these two teams are used to. 

FanDuel is the only other sportsbook offering a total of 47.5 (all others are at 47), but it charges a steeper -115 price to back the Under.

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College football best bets made 11/29/2023 at 3:51 p.m. ET.

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