Sportsbook Review's analysts assembled a list of their college football expert picks for Saturday's Week 14 Conference Championship card. The picks are based on the top NCAAF odds from our best sports betting apps, and this page will serve as your one-stop shop featuring our best picks for Saturday.
Championship week is upon us, and this year’s slate feels a bit more meaningful than usual.
The College Football Playoff odds race is as intriguing as ever in the last year with the four-team format. When the bracket expands to 12 teams next season, we will probably lose some of the luster of championship week due to what’s all at stake.
That doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy this weekend, however. Our college football experts have unveiled their top selections for all eight championship games scheduled for Saturday, aiming to provide added insight and guidance for enthusiasts looking to delve deeper into these matchups.
Here are our best college football expert picks for Week 14 (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
College football Championship Week schedule
(Odds via Caesars)
- SMU vs. Tulane (-3)
- Georgia (-5) vs. Alabama
- Appalachian State vs. Troy (-5)
- Louisville vs. Florida State (-1)
- Michigan (-21.5) vs. Iowa
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College football Week 14 expert picks
|Oklahoma State vs. Texas
|Jaydon Blue Over 30.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Quinn Ewers to throw 3-plus touchdown passes (+210 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
|Adonai Mitchell Over 50.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
|Quinn Ewers Over 265.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Miami (OH) vs. Toledo
|Peny Boone anytime touchdown (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Rashad Amos anytime touchdown (+140 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Dequan Finn Under 182.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
|Toledo team total under 26.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Boise State vs. UNLV
|Boise State ML (-130 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Ashton Jeanty to score Boise State’s first touchdown (+162 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|UNLV team total Over 28.5 (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Ricky White Over 112.5 receiving yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Georgia vs. Alabama
|Roydell Williams anytime touchdown (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Jalen Milroe Over 39.5 rushing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Brock Bowers anytime touchdown (+105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Daijun Edwards Under 64.5 rushing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|SMU vs. Tulane
|Tulane -3 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
|Under 47.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Tulane -3 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
|SMU Under 21.5 team points (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
|Appalachian State vs. Troy
|Troy -5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
|Joey Aguilar Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
|Joey Aguilar Over 248.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
|Kimani Vidal over 111.5 rushing yards (+102 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Michigan vs. Iowa
|Michigan TD for 1st scoring play (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Blake Corum to score two or more touchdowns (+145 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Under 35 (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Michigan to win by 21-30 (+220 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
|Louisville vs. Florida State
|Trey Benson Under 92.5 rushing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Trey Benson anytime touchdown scorer (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
|Louisville ML (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
|Jack Plummer Under 230.5 passing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
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College football Week 14 top picks
Jaydon Blue Over 30.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
In my weekly player props column, I gave out an Under on the rushing total for Texas freshman running back CJ Baxter during the final weekend of the regular season. He finished below his mark of 98.5 by more than 50 yards, mostly due to the fact he suffered a hip injury in the second half and was pulled due to precautionary reasons in a blowout win over Texas Tech.
But the thesis behind the play proved to be true in the first half. Texas prefers to use a committee approach to replace the production of Jonathan Brooks, who suffered a season-ending injury a few weeks ago. Baxter delivered a 100-yard performance in the first game without Brooks, only for Jaydon Blue to become the third Texas RB to hit the century mark with a 121-yard effort last weekend.
In fact, Blue did most of his damage in the first half, when he and Baxter were both healthy. While Baxter got the start and led the team with eight first-half carries, Blue earned five first-half rushing attempts and turned that into 94 yards. Even with a 35-40% usage rate, Blue should be able to clear this low total of 30.5 rushing yards. He’s also a big play waiting to happen, as evidenced by his 69-yard touchdown run against the Red Raiders.
If the Big 12 title game ends up being as lopsided as the two-touchdown spread might indicate, Blue also has an avenue for clearing this mark with extra touches in the fourth quarter. Take advantage of the only shop bold enough to offer a rushing prop for Blue.
For more on this matchup, see Brenden Schaeffer's Oklahoma State vs. Texas predictions.
Quinn Ewers to throw 3-plus touchdown passes (+210 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Texas Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers started the season with three touchdown passes against both Rice and Alabama, but has not topped two touchdown passes in any of the eight games since. However, he has a great opportunity for one of his best offensive games of the season against an Oklahoma State defense that ranks outside the FBS top 100 in rushing and passing yards allowed per game.
The Cowboys defense entered last week against BYU ranked in the top 45 in Line Yards and Rush Success but 113th in Pass Success and 94th in Havoc. Thus, Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian will likely take to the air in this matchup to expose Oklahoma State’s leaky pass defense.
In addition, we do not expect Texas to take its foot off the gas as it has the first opportunity of the day, kicking off at noon, to make a big statement to the College Football Playoff committee after being ranked seventh in the latest CFP rankings.
Given that the juice on the Over on Ewers’ 1.5 passing touchdowns is as high as -215 at FanDuel, we are confident that his floor is two passing touchdowns. Thus, we are opting for the better value of plus-money odds for three or more passing touchdowns at bet365, which can be found under their “Player Passing Touchdowns Milestones” option.
Brock Bowers anytime touchdown scorer (+105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Alabama’s passing defense on the season ranks closer to the middle of the pack, while its run defense has largely been elite. Coming off of an Iron Bowl in which the Alabama defense was gashed on the ground by Auburn, I expect the Crimson Tide to come out with more purpose defensively in stifling the Georgia run game. That will put more pressure on Carson Beck to do it with his arm, particularly when the Bulldogs get in the red zone.
Beck’s connection with tight end Brock Bowers didn’t skip a beat despite Bowers’ mid-season absence for tightrope surgery on his high-ankle sprain. Despite underwhelming yardage totals, Bowers has returned to catch touchdowns from Beck in consecutive games.
Overall, Bowers has at least one touchdown in five out of his last six contests and should be a primary target for Beck in the red zone. Most of our best sportsbooks list Bowers’ anytime TD odds between -120 and -125, so make sure to get it at Caesars, where the odds currently feature a distinct outlier at +105.
I dive deeper into this matchup with my Georgia vs. Alabama prediction.
Daijun Edwards Under 64.5 rushing yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This is a shockingly high number. Edwards has run for fewer than 60 yards in three consecutive games, despite carrying the ball at least 11 times in each contest. The Crimson Tide don’t have the best rush defense they’ve ever had, but they’re still ranked 33rd in the country in rushing yards allowed per game.
Considering the Bulldogs have the 11th-best passing offense in the country, and they’re only favored by five, it seems unlikely they'll run the ball more than usual in this game. While Edwards has had some great performances throughout this season, he’s only rushed for more than 100 yards twice. His ceiling isn’t very high, and in what should be a close game, his floor isn’t either.
FanDuel has this prop listed at 56.5 yards. We’d stay away from that number altogether, but it certainly feels more realistic for him to hit that number, than what bet365 and DraftKings currently have listed. Even BetMGM and Caesars are listing 60.5 and 61.5, respectively, which shows just how high overblown this total is at two of the best sportsbooks.
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