Georgia vs. Alabama Prediction, Pick & Odds: SEC Championship
The SEC Championship on Saturday features old foes, and we have you covered with our best Georgia vs. Alabama prediction based on the best college football odds at our best college football betting sites.
Defending champion Georgia (12-0, 8-0 SEC) made history in the final week of the college football regular season, securing a 31-23 victory over Georgia Tech for the Bulldogs' 29th consecutive win.
Standing in their way of a third straight national title is an Alabama (11-1, 8-0 SEC) squad that relied on a miraculous 4th-and-31 conversion to secure a 27-24 victory over Auburn in one of the most astonishing Iron Bowl endings ever. This win preserved Alabama’s College Football Playoff aspirations, but FanDuel has them outside looking in with +265 odds to secure a spot in the playoffs.
To accompany our college football expert picks, and our CFB player props and best bets, here is our best Georgia vs. Alabama prediction in conjunction with our Georgia vs. Alabama player props (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Georgia vs. Alabama prediction: SEC Championship
Over 55.5 (-110 via Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In the last five encounters between Georgia and Alabama, the only instance when the game concluded below the anticipated total was during the 2022 national championship clash, when the Bulldogs triumphed over the Crimson Tide with a score of 33-18. That went over the total of 53.5 points.
However, Georgia’s offense is more explosive with Carson Beck under center than Stetson Bennett. Head coach Kirby Smart has done a masterful job of adapting his offense to its skill set. Thus, the Bulldogs are no longer the ground-and-pound team responsible for their back-to-back national championships and, instead, move the ball through the air with much more regularity.
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Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck didn't attempt fewer than 25 passes in any game this season until last week against Georgia Tech, and the Bulldogs ran the ball 36 times, their sixth time attempting more than 35 runs this season. However, we equate this more to gamesmanship on Smart’s part, as he will likely unleash the passing game that has seen Beck throw for 254-plus yards in the first 11 games this season.
Against the Crimson Tide, the most effective strategy involves an aerial offensive approach, considering their defensive strengths. Although ranking ninth in rush success, Alabama's defense lags behind while ranking 55th in line yards and 16th in pass success, indicating vulnerability against passing plays. Notably, their red-zone defense, once a formidable force, has seen in decline, currently positioned at 67th in finishing drives, suggesting a potential area of opportunity for opponents to capitalize upon within scoring range.
This is a matchup of two of the top-seven quarterbacks (Beck and Jalen Milroe) in terms of Total QBR on the season. Milroe has an 88.3 QBR or better in four consecutive games and an 8-1 TD-INT ratio. The biggest reason for that success is the Crimson Tide offensive line keeping him clean, as Milroe was sacked 30 times through his first seven starts but has been sacked just four times in the previous four games.
And when Milroe has been under pressure, his elite running ability (seven rushing touchdowns and two games with 106-plus rushing yards in the last four weeks) has bailed the offense out on multiple occasions. Georgia only faced one of two quarterbacks (Jaxson Dart and Payton Thorne) that rank in the top 30 of the SEC in rushing, but Thorne gave the Bulldogs fits with 92 rushing yards and 7.7 yards per carry.
This is a four-star play, as the Over has cashed in five of Georgia’s last six neutral-site games dating back to the start of last season, and is 8-1-1 after an Alabama win this year.
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Georgia vs. Alabama best odds
Caesars, bet365 (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 56 | Over 56.5 | Over 55.5 | Over 55.5 | Over 55.5 |
| -110 | -105 | -115 | -110 | -110 |
As Over backers, our preferred shops are either Caesars or bet365, as those are the only two of our top sportsbooks that charge standard -110 juice to back the Over of 55.5, whereas other of our best college football betting sites have the total set a full point higher.
Even if the game gets off to a slow start, we eventually expect fireworks, as the Over is 8-1 in Alabama’s last nine games against SEC opponents at neutral venues.
Georgia vs. Alabama odds
Georgia vs. Alabama odds analysis
On Saturday night, FanDuel was the highest of any sportsbook with a total of 57.5, but that was quickly bet down to 55.5 and has gone between 55.5 and 56.5 ever since. The Over has cashed in nine of Alabama’s 11 games, while Georgia has an O/U record of 6-6.
FanDuel and BetMGM are the only shops offering a spread of Georgia -5.5, while all other competitors are at -5. Any line movement to this point has gone in Georgia’s favor, as sportsbooks like BetMGM and Caesars opened at -4.5, while bet365 opened lowest of all at -4. The Crimson Tide have been the much better ATS team this season, covering eight of 12 games, while the Bulldogs have a 5-7 ATS record.
Georgia vs. Alabama game info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 2 at 4 p.m. ET
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: Indoors
Georgia-Alabama prediction made 11/27/2023 at 3:57 p.m. ET.
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