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Louisville vs. Florida State Prediction, Picks & Odds: ACC Championship

Mike Spector

Last Updated: December 2, 2023 4:05 PM EST • 3 min 62 sec read.

The undefeated Florida State Seminoles put it all on the line in Saturday's ACC Championship Game against the Louisville Cardinals, and we have you covered with our best Louisville vs. Florida State prediction based on the college football odds at our best college football betting sites.

Louisville (10-2, 7-1 ACC) is appearing in the ACC Championship Game for the first time. However, its already slim hopes of making the College Football Playoff crumbled with last week's 38-31 loss to Kentucky, marking the Cardinals' fifth consecutive defeat in the Governor's Cup and their first home loss this season.  

Without star quarterback Jordan Travis, the Florida State Seminoles (12-0, 8-0 ACC) successfully navigated their first test last week, rallying from a 12-0 deficit in the second quarter to beat rival Florida.

The Seminoles are aiming for their second-ever College Football Playoff appearance and their first since the inaugural season of the playoffs in 2014-15.

As part of our college football expert picks, here is our best Louisville vs. Florida State prediction to accompany our Louisville-Florida State college football player props (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Louisville vs. Florida State prediction: ACC Championship

Over 48.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Florida State is among four teams ranked in the top 10 in Offensive and Defensive SP+. And while many will be down on the Seminoles’ offense after QB Tate Rodemaker’s 12-for-25 performance for 134 yards against Florida, we expect a much better game from the backup quarterback at a neutral site than a true road game, especially with one start already under his belt.

Editor's note: Rodemaker has been listed as a game-time decision as of Friday afternoon

There is precedent for Louisville to underperform defensively against an inexperienced quarterback, as the Cardinals were torched for 38 points by Pittsburgh in Christian Veilleux’s first career start. Veilleux threw for 200 yards and two touchdowns, and the Cardinals were undone by three turnovers that led to 14 Panthers points.

Louisville also committed three turnovers against Kentucky last week. Those were a huge reason for its loss, considering the Cardinals outgained Kentucky 403-289, converted nine of 17 third downs (and 3 of 4 fourth downs), and won the time-of-possession battle by over 13 minutes.

That is dangerous when facing a Florida State team that ended the regular season tied for fifth in turnover differential (+11).

Louisville played three games away from home this season and allowed 31 or more points in two. However, we also expect the Cardinals to perform well offensively, as they entered last week in the top 21 nationally in Rush Success, Pass Success, and Quality Drives.

The Cardinals are only the second opponent that Florida State has faced that ranks in the top 27 in both points and yards per play, and we expect head coach Jeff Brohm to get creative with new wrinkles for the Seminoles' defense.

This is a three-star play (it would be a more confident four-star play with a better weather forecast), as the Over is 5-3 in Louisville’s eight ACC games this season, including cashing all four times it has had equal rest as its opponents.

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Louisville vs. Florida State best odds

BetMGM (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
4949.548.54949
Over (-108)Over (-105)Over (-110)Over (-110)Over (-110)

As Over backers, BetMGM is our obvious choice for a go-to shop, as it is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering a total as low as 48.5 and charging standard -110 juice to back the Over.

We would not put anyone off waiting to see if the total drops a little closer to the end of the week, as the early weather forecast calls for better than a 50% chance of rain in Charlotte on Saturday night.

The Over has cashed in two of the last three meetings between these teams, and the projected total in each of those games was 57 points or higher. Get the best price on this bet by using our BetMGM bonus code: SBRBONUS. 

Louisville vs. Florida State odds

Louisville vs. Florida State odds analysis

FanDuel has experienced the most varied line movement on its total thus far, initially opening at 50.5 and spiking to 51.5 before lowering to 49.5.

Elsewhere, at some of our other best sports betting sites, we have seen a steady decline from weekend highs of 53.5, and that movement is likely weather-related, as the Under has only attracted 38% of the early wagers.

Our best sportsbooks are in unison with the Seminoles as 2.5-point favorites, and FanDuel (-120) is the only shop charging more than the standard -110 price to back Florida State.

The line movement across all of our sites with the best sportsbook promos has gone in Louisville’s favor despite the Cardinals coming off a loss, as Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365 reached highs of Florida State -5 over the weekend, while FanDuel and BetMGM have come down from -4.5. This is a case of reverse line movement, as 63% of the early point spread wagers are on the Seminoles.

Louisville vs. Florida State game info

  • When: Saturday, Dec. 2 at 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
  • How to watch: ABC
  • Weather: 63 degrees, 58% chance of precipitation, wind 4 mph ENE

Louisville-Florida State prediction made Tuesday at 6:03 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”