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Cooper Legas of the Utah State Aggies throws against the Memphis Tigers in the first half of the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl as we look at our Fresno State-Utah State prediction.
Cooper Legas of the Utah State Aggies throws against the Memphis Tigers in the first half of the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl. Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images/AFP.

We're making our best Fresno State-Utah State prediction based on the college football odds from our best sports betting apps for the middle game of Friday's tripleheader, and we project a high-scoring affair.

Prepare for a potential high-scoring showdown this Friday within the Mountain West, as Fresno State (5-1) with its ultra-efficient offense takes to the road to challenge Utah State (3-3).

While the Aggies might not match the Bulldogs' offensive potency, they compensate with a fast-paced style of play, setting the stage for an exciting aerial battle in Logan.

To accompany the rest of our college football predictions for Week 7 and our college football best bets, here is our best Fresno State-Utah State prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Fresno State vs. Utah State prediction 

Over 57 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Even with the significant adjustment we’ve seen to this total since it opened, this contest could see little resistance in going Over as part of our college football predictions for Week 7. Utah State combines one of the worst defenses in the nation with the seventh-fastest offensive pace of play in FBS.

While Fresno State’s pace falls more toward the middle of the pack in college football, the Bulldogs’ speed of scoring in this matchup should still be remarkably swift. Fresno State (31st in adjusted offensive efficiency) averages 416 yards of total offense per game. That unit will face an Aggie defense that ranks 112th in adjusted efficiency while allowing north of 400 yards per outing.

Fresno State is averaging 33.4 points per game while Utah State checks in at 30.2. The Aggies aren’t as explosive, but they make up for it with that blistering pace. They also rank higher in adjusted offense (51st) than Fresno State ranks in adjusted defense (61st). Keeping pace at home shouldn’t be a major problem for Utah State.

The Over has hit during four out of six Fresno State games in 2023, while Utah State is 5-1 to the Over. Games involving the Aggies have cleared the total by an average of 17.5 points, the highest mark in the FBS this season.

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Fresno State vs. Utah State best odds

Caesars (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Over 57.5Over 57.5Over 57.5Over 57Over 57
-110-105-105-110-110

DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM list this total at 57.5, with FanDuel and BetMGM at least offering an incentive on the odds, which are reduced to -105 for the Over. DraftKings is a spot to avoid for Over bettors at 57.5 without an odds advantage.

Caesars and bet365 offer the line at 57, but at standard -110 odds. The move from -105 to -110 isn’t too drastic, so our preference is to take the better line at Caesars and bet365. As long as you avoid DraftKings, either stance is acceptable.

Fresno State vs. Utah State odds

Fresno State vs. Utah State odds analysis

Fresno State opened as a 4.5-point road favorite, and that number has increased slightly to between -5 and -5.5 across our best sports betting sites. Currently, 67% of wagers have come in on the Bulldogs.

The total opened at 51.5 and has been sharply increasing to between 57 and 57.5 across our best live betting sites. The Over is still attracting 48% of wagers, even after that massive movement.

Fresno State vs. Utah State game info

  • When: Friday, Oct. 13, 2023 at 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium, Logan, UT
  • How to watch: CBS Sports Network
  • Weather: 40 Degrees, 8-mph winds, 0% Precipitation

Fresno State-Utah State prediction made Wednesday at 4 p.m. ET.

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