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Devin Leary of the Kentucky Wildcats against the EKU Colonels at Kroger Field as we look at our Florida-Kentucky prediction.
Devin Leary of the Kentucky Wildcats against the EKU Colonels at Kroger Field. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP.

The Kentucky Wildcats have won three of their past five meetings against the Florida Gators, as we share our top Florida vs. Kentucky prediction based on the college football odds from our best sports betting apps for the SEC East showdown at Kroger Field.

The undefeated Kentucky Wildcats are a short home favorite against the visiting 3-1 Florida Gators in Week 5. Florida hasn’t traveled well of late and dropped three consecutive road games dating back to last season. The Gators have also dropped three of their past five to the Wildcats.

Can Florida pull off the road upset to win its fourth straight game, or will Kentucky put a statement win on its ledger and make a case to enter the AP Top 25 Rankings?

MarketDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Favorite ATSKentucky -1.5 (-110)Kentucky -1.5 (-108)Kentucky -1 (-110)Kentucky -1 (-110)Kentucky -1 (-110)
Underdog ATSFlorida +1.5 (-110)Florida +1.5 (-112)Florida +1 (-110)Florida +1 (-110)Florida +1 (-110)
Favorite MLKentucky -120Kentucky -118Kentucky -120Kentucky -120Kentucky -120
Underdog MLFlorida +100Florida -102Florida +100Florida +100Florida +100
OverO44 (-110)O44.5 (-110)O44 (-110)O44 (-110)O44 (-110)
UnderU44 (-110)U44.5 (-110)U44 (-110)U44 (-110)O44 (-110)

Here is our best Florida-Kentucky prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Florida vs. Kentucky prediction: Week 5

Kentucky ML (-142 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Wildcats are not an AP top-25 team yet, but they will be if the school can take this matchup at home, and that doesn't bode well for Graham Mertz’s chances of success. Against AP-ranked opponents prior to this season, Mertz was averaging a 38 Total QBR, a 54% completion percentage, a 5% interception percentage, and he posted a 5:12 touchdown-to-interception ratio, all of which ranks last among FBS quarterbacks.

Mertz did nothing during his opening game at Utah to inspire confidence that a change of scenery from Wisconsin is all he needed. He threw another costly interception and finished with a 45.6 QBR. The only positive is that he's completed 77.8% of his pass attempts. But he's never posted a campaign with higher than a 67% completion percentage over the last three seasons.

The signal-caller and the Gators now face a top-10 Wildcats defense, according to SP+, and Kentucky’s unit entered Week 4 ranked fifth in finishing drives and 17th in quality drives. And even though former Wildcats quarterback Will Grier was selected in the third round of the NFL draft, one could argue Kentucky’s offense is more explosive under NC State transfer Devin Leary. The Wildcats rank second in passing down explosiveness and 31st in passing down success rate. Kentucky’s offense is also versatile enough to take advantage of light boxes if opposing defenses respect the pass, as it ranks eighth in the country in stuff rate.

This moneyline play is a four-star wager as part of our college football Week 5 predictions because the Wildcats have covered the spread in 64.3% of games as a home favorite since 2021, and the team is an even more impressive 6-1-1 against the spread when facing ranked opponents during that span. Conversely, the Gators have covered during just three of 10 road games in that stretch, and Kentucky has won the last two meetings between these teams by a combined 46-29 as underdogs of at least six points in each outing.

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Florida vs. Kentucky best odds

FanDuel (-142)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
-148-142-160-145-145

We would have been tempted to back Kentucky’s point spread at anything under a field goal if not for the value we're getting on the moneyline odds at FanDuel. There's a sizeable $18 between FanDuel’s -142 odds and BetMGM’s -160, and it's worth backing Kentucky to win outright, especially since most of our Kentucky sports betting apps are juicing the point spread more than the standard -110 price (i.e., -118 at DraftKings).

Florida vs. Kentucky odds

Florida vs. Kentucky odds analysis

FanDuel, Caesars, and DraftKings all offer Kentucky as 2.5-point favorites, and all those lines are juiced to at least -114 to back the favorites. Those three shops reached -3 at some point, either Sunday night or Monday morning/afternoon. But Florida backers weighed in and drove the number down to -2.5.

BetMGM and BetRivers are staying at -3 for the moment. Kentucky has given its spread backers 1.87 units or profit, while Florida has cost bettors -2.03 units after covering just one of its four games. 

DraftKings and BetRivers are alone among our Kentucky sportsbooks while offering a total of 46, and other competitors are slightly higher at 46.5. Caesars opened at 45.5 before reaching a high of 47 and coming back down one point, while FanDuel has experienced massive swings from 47.5 down to 44.5 before Over backers bet it back to 46.5. The wild line moves suggest there's sharp action on both sides of the total.

Florida vs. Kentucky game info

  • When: Saturday, Sept. 30 at noon ET
  • Where: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Weather: 80 degrees, 9% chance of precipitation, w8-mph northeasterly winds

Florida-Kentucky prediction made 9/25/23 at 5:47 p.m. ET.

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