College Football Best Bets Today: Matchups, Odds, Picks, Predictions for Week 6

A hefty Big Ten favorite, a significant line move on a MAC total, and an upset pick in the battle for the Milk Can headline our Week 6 college football best bets.

We’ve made it to yet another College Football Saturday! After all of the chaos and thrilling finishes that transpired a week ago, there is bound to be more fun in store in Week 6. It’s a tricky slate to handicap this week, but we’ve got a full menu of best bets locked and loaded.

This Saturday’s college football schedule is an interesting one in that the vast majority of big games will be played early in the day. This was no doubt done intentionally to clear the way for the evening showdown between Texas A&M and Alabama.

Check out all of our top college football Week 6 picks.

Here are our best bets for Saturday’s college football slate (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Saturday’s College Football Schedule and Odds

(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

• Michigan (-22.5) vs. Indiana
• TCU (-6.5) vs. Kansas
• Tennessee (-3) vs. LSU
• Texas (-9) vs. Oklahoma
• Arkansas vs. Mississippi State (-9)
• Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State (-2.5)
• Auburn vs. Georgia (-29.5)
• Utah (-3.5) vs. UCLA
• Ball State vs. Central Michigan (-7.5)
• Tulsa (-6) vs. Navy
• Ohio State (-27) vs. Michigan State
• Ole Miss (-17) vs. Vanderbilt
• UConn (-5) vs. FIU
• Washington State vs. USC (-13)
• South Carolina vs. Kentucky (-6)
• BYU vs. Notre Dame (-3.5)
• Texas A&M vs. Alabama (-24)
• Florida State vs. NC State (-3)
• Fresno State vs. Boise State (-7.5)
• Hawaii vs. San Diego State (-22)

Saturday’s College Football Best Bets

• Moneyline: Georgia State (-140 via PointsBet)
• Spread: Ohio State -26.5 (-115 via FanDuel)
• Total: Ball State-Central Michigan Over 63.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
• Upset: Fresno State (+255 via FanDuel)
• Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-115 via DraftKings)
• Moneyline Parlay: Michigan (-1800) + Mississippi State (-325) + Tulsa (-215) + Ole Miss (-900) + San Diego State (-1800) = +137 (via DraftKings)

Top College Football Picks for Saturday

Moneyline: Georgia State (-140)

We kick off this week’s college football best bets with a moneyline play from the in-state rivalry otherwise known as “Modern Day Hate”. Georgia State finally got off the schneid and into the win column last week with an impressive performance on the road against Army. Now, the Panthers will enjoy home-field advantage for their annual matchup against Georgia Southern.

Coming into the season, the outlook for Georgia State was considerably better than that of its rival from Savannah. The Panthers returned 15 starters in total, led by senior quarterback, Darren Grainger, from a team that won eight games a year ago. On the flip side, Southern was embarking on a transition from running a triple-option offense to a full-blown spread attack under new head coach, Clay Helton.

After struggling out of the gates to begin the season, Georgia State’s defense played its best game to date last week. The Panthers forced three turnovers and allowed only 4.7 yards per play to the run-heavy Army offense. 

Of course, Kyle Vantrease and the Eagles’ spread offense present a much different task than what GSU’s defense encountered last week. However, Georgia Southern’s defense hasn’t exactly played stellar football in its own right this season. Getting that elusive first win last week might have been all the Panthers needed to jumpstart their season.

Spread: Ohio State -26.5 (-115)

Sometimes betting on massive college football favorites can be one of the most profitable endeavors. While laying nearly four touchdowns may not be the most attractive wager to some, the good news here is that we are doing so with one of the elite teams in all of college football. 

Not only is Ohio State the vastly superior team in terms of talent, but the Buckeyes have also dominated their rivalry against Michigan State in recent years. Since Mel Tucker took over as head coach at Michigan State, OSU has outscored the Spartans 108-19 in two head-to-head meetings. 

Although Ohio State may once again be without star receiver Jaxson Smith-Njigba, there are still more than enough weapons at QB CJ Stroud’s disposal. In addition, the impact of new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is already apparent. The Buckeyes have improved drastically against the run and also rank seventh in passing yards allowed.  

Given the inconsistency of Spartans quarterback Payton Thorne and the fact that Michigan State’s defense will be completely overmatched, it would hardly be a shock to see the Buckeyes covering this gaudy point spread at halftime.

Total: Ball State-Central Michigan Over 63.5 (-110)

Sometimes, a line can move so far that the door of opportunity opens to buy back in the opposite direction. Such is the case when it comes to the total for Saturday’s Mid-American Conference matchup between Ball State and Central Michigan.

Oddsmakers first opened the Over/Under for this game at 69.5. The line has been adjusted nearly a full touchdown down to the current listing of 63.5. As such, the best of the number with regard to playing the Under is long gone. However, based on what we’ve seen out of both these teams this season, it’s no wonder why the total opened just below 70 points. 

Out of 131 FBS programs, Ball State and Central Michigan rank among the bottom 10 in scoring defense on the year. The Chippewas have allowed 41.8 points per game to FBS opponents, and the Cardinals are even worse at 42.0.

Not only have both teams been awful defensively, but each has an offense that is capable of putting up points. Both sides also prefer to play with tempo offensively. Coming into Saturday’s game, Central Michigan has averaged 79.8 offensive plays per game, the 13th-most in the country. Ball State is also a top-20 program in plays run per game at 78.0.

Upset: Fresno State (+255)

Quality quarterback play could be a pipe dream for both teams in this Mountain West rivalry game. Senior Jake Haener was a big reason why many were high on Fresno State in the MWC this season. Unfortunately, the ankle injury that he sustained three weeks ago will once again prevent him from suiting up for Saturday’s rivalry game against Boise State. 

Haener also missed the Bulldogs’ game against UConn this past Saturday. Fresno went into Storrs laying 24 points but wound up losing the game outright in a massive upset. Making his first collegiate start, backup quarterback Logan Fife threw for only 157 yards and two interceptions against one of the worst teams in the country. 

Meanwhile, Boise State has had to endure some inner turmoil of its own recently. Following a disappointing road loss to UTEP, Broncos’ quarterback Hank Bachmeier elected to enter the transfer portal effective immediately. As such, BSU doesn’t exactly have a reliable passing attack coming into this matchup.

The Broncos were able to get past San Diego State last week thanks to a massive output on the ground. It’s highly unlikely that they will achieve a similar performance against a more talented Fresno State defense. With the iconic Milk Can Trophy on the line, expect the Bulldogs to be ready to play Saturday night.

Prop: Gibbs Over 69.5 rushing yards (-115)

No position group had more turnover than the Texas A&M defensive line as all four starters from a year ago departed. Head coach Jimbo Fisher may have landed one of the best-recruiting classes of all time last year, but the Aggies’ lack of experience is clearly a hindrance.

Coming into Saturday night’s showdown against Alabama, the Aggies rank 98th in the country when it comes to defending the run. FBS opponents have averaged a whopping 186.0 yards on the ground against A&M this season. 

Considering that the Aggies’ defensive secondary is one of the best in the nation, why wouldn’t the Crimson Tide elect to pound the ball between the tackles in this matchup? Alabama had no qualms about doing so last week against Arkansas, and running back Jahmyr Gibbs was the focal point. The junior tailback ran for 206 yards on 18 carries and is now averaging 8.8 yards per carry on the year.

The other factor for bettors to consider here is the health of quarterback Bryce Young. While he is officially designated as day-to-day, it would be a bit surprising to see him play in a game that the Tide should have no trouble winning without him. Young’s absence will likely result in an even greater focus on the run game for ‘Bama. As such, Gibbs’ rushing yardage prop of 69.5 feels awfully low.

Moneyline parlay: Michigan (-1800) + Mississippi State (-325) + Tulsa (-215) + Ole Miss (-900) + San Diego State (-1800) = +137

This is admittedly a tough week for college football parlays, so bettors are advised to tread lightly. We are heeding this advice ourselves with the five-leg ticket above that yields +137 payout odds. 

The team that figures to be the biggest sweat in this week’s parlay is Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane fought hard each of the last two weeks in losing efforts against Ole Miss and Cincinnati. Now, they are set to travel to Annapolis to face a Navy team that has been completely inept offensively. Even with Tulsa quarterback Davis Brin coming in banged up, the Golden Hurricane should be able to impose their will on both sides of the ball in this matchup.

Mississippi State is the only other team in this week’s parlay that is laying less than 10 points. The Bulldogs are riding high after knocking off Texas A&M last week and will enjoy home field advantage again on Saturday against Arkansas. The Razorbacks’ defense is not great, and one has to believe that QB Will Rogers and the Air Raid offense can capitalize. In addition, Arkansas may very well be without quarterback KJ Jefferson due to a concussion.

The rest of this parlay figures to be pretty smooth sailing. Although Indiana will be on its home field, Michigan has a massive edge in terms of overall talent. Even if Ole Miss is not fully focused on its road trip to Vanderbilt, the Rebels will undoubtedly win the game outright. Our ticket wraps up out west with San Diego State as a massive home favorite over a Hawaii outfit that is one of the worst teams in all of college football.

Where to Bet on College Football

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM