Ohio State vs. Michigan State Picks, Predictions for College Football Week 6: Buckeyes Look to Stay Hot
The Ohio State Buckeyes have remained firmly at No. 3 in the AP poll amid their 5-0 start. They visit the Michigan State Spartans as 27.5-point favorites in Week 6. Check out our top Ohio State-Michigan State picks below.
Ohio State pushed on a 39-point spread in its 49-10 win over Rutgers last week. The snapped a two-game ATS win streak for the Buckeyes with those victories coming over Wisconsin and Toledo.
Michigan State has lost three straight games both straight up and against the spread. The latest loss came as a 7.5-point underdog against Maryland last week with a 27-13 final score in favor of the Terrapins.
Be sure to check out our college football best bets and all of our Week 6 picks.
Here are our college football betting picks for the Week 6 Ohio State-Michigan State matchup (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Ohio State vs. Michigan State Game Info
Date: Saturday, Oct. 8, 4 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
Location: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI
Weather: 57 degress, 0% chance of precipitation, 17-18-mph winds (blowing west)
Ohio State vs. Michigan State Odds
Ohio State vs. Michigan State Odds Analysis
The spread has grown from the consensus opening line of Ohio State -24.5 to -27 with 67% of the tickets and 94% of the handle backing the Buckeyes to cover.
The Over/Under also grew, from 61.5 to 65. While 61% of the tickets are on the Over, those account for just 45% of the handle.
Ohio State vs. Michigan State Picks
Ohio State vs. Michigan State ATS Pick
Ohio State -26.5 (-115) ★★★
Not only is Ohio State the vastly superior team in terms of talent, but the Buckeyes have also been dominating this rivalry. Ohio State has outscored the Spartans 118-19 over two meetings since Mel Tucker took over as the head coach at Michigan State.
Although some bettors may be wary of laying nearly four touchdowns, it’s hard to envision Michigan State preventing yet another lopsided result on Saturday. The Buckeyes could again be without star receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but there are still more than enough weapons at C.J. Stroud’s disposal. The Spartans’ defense is also hardly an intimidating unit to go against.
The struggles of Ohio State’s own defense in 2021 were well-documented. But even then the Buckeyes easily shut down the Michigan State offense. Fast-forward a year, and new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is already making an impact. The Buckeyes have improved drastically against the run, and they also rank seventh in passing yards allowed.
Given how inconsistent quarterback Payton Thorne has been for the Spartans in 2022, the prospects of Mighigan State flipping the script offensively during Saturday’s matchup aren’t great. It would hardly be shocking to see the Buckeyes covering this gaudy point spread at halftime.
Ohio State vs. Michigan State O/U Pick
Under 65 (-110) ★★
Seeing so much action on the Over among the betting public isn't surprising, as Ohio State holds a massive offensive advantage. But more often than not, the contrarian side is worth a look. The total has already moved four points, so buying back on the Under is worth consideration.
The Buckeyes will certainly score plenty. However, getting out to an early lead could result in Ohio State leaning on running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams for the better part of the second half. This was the case a week ago against Rutgers, when Williams was given nearly as many carries (21) as Stroud's pass attempts (22).
The other major factor is the Buckeyes' improved defense. While one can question the quality of the offenses Ohio State has been facing, it's impressive that no team has scored more than 21 points against the Buckeyes. Furthermore, Michigan State has clearly taken a step back offensively compared to 2021.
With the Spartans not expected to contribute much of anything toward the final point total, 65 becomes that much tougher to surpass.
Ohio State vs. Michigan State Prop Pick
Michigan State team total: Under 18.5 (-110) ★★★★
Based on recent history in this Big Ten rivalry, this total is absurdly high. The last time the Spartans scored more than 17 points against Ohio State was in 2014. It's been even uglier in recent years, as the Spartans have been held to 10 points or fewer in four of the last five meetings.
Along with the Buckeyes’ better defense, the diminishing state of Michigan State’s offense must be factored into this handicap. It was the Kenneth Walker show in 2021. While the Spartans brought in a pair of Power 5 transfers to replace Walker in the backfield, the offensive line took a massive step back.
Ohio State’s defensive front should thoroughly dominate in the trenches. Two touchdowns feels like the absolute ceiling for Sparty in this matchup.
Where to Bet on Ohio State-Michigan State Picks
Ohio State-Michigan State picks made 10/6/2022 at 2:00 p.m. ET
Related Articles
