Florida State vs. NC State Picks, Predictions College Football Week 6: ACC Foes Look to Get on Track
The Florida State Seminoles take on the NC State Wolfpack after both suffered tough conference losses a week ago. Check out our top Florida State-NC State picks.
Despite both teams possessing a stingy defense, more than 80% of all wagers on the game total are on the Over. Should bettors follow suit or go contrarian?
Outside of the SEC, it’s hard to argue with the idea that the ACC’s Atlantic Division is the deepest in all of college football. Last week saw Florida State (3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U) suffer its first loss of the season at home against Wake Forest. Despite the setback, the improved Seminoles figure to remain a tough out.
NC State (2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U) also sustained its first defeat of the year last weekend at the hands of perennial ACC powerhouse, Clemson. With so much returning talent, the Wolfpack were viewed as a darkhorse pick to win the conference this season. So far, however, NC State’s play on the field has largely been underwhelming.
Here are our college football picks for the Week 6 matchup between Florida State and NC State (odds via BetMGM, BetRivers, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
Florida State vs. NC State Game Info
Date: Saturday, Oct. 8, 8 p.m. ET
TV: ACC Network
Location: Carter-Finley Stadium, Raleigh, NC
Weather: 63℉, 0% chance of precipitation, 5-7-mph winds E
Florida State vs. NC State Odds
Florida State vs. NC State Odds Analysis
Oddsmakers opened the spread at NC State -5 for this game. For the second week in a row, the college football betting market has moved the needle multiple points in Florida State’s favor. The consensus favors NC State, but it has moved from a field goal's margin to -3.5.
While the consensus Over/Under has come down a touch after opening at 51.5, the move has only spanned a single point thus far. Most sportsbooks now list the total at 50.5 with select shops offering half-point deviations in either direction.
The betting percentages at DraftKings for this game run contrary to the line moves on both the spread and total. To date, NC State has taken nearly 75% of all ATS bets as the home favorite. Meanwhile, the Over has garnered more than 80% of all bets made on the game total.
Florida State vs. NC State Picks
Florida State vs. NC State ATS Pick
Florida State +3.5 (-110) ★★
As disappointing as last week’s effort was, Florida State was burned in predictable ways. Wake Forest may be a pass-happy team, but it was the ground game that helped to open things up for quarterback Sam Hartman and the passing attack. Despite anticipating that FSU’s defense would have the advantage in the trenches, the Seminoles gave up 171 rushing yards in the game.
It’s clear that the best way to attack Florida State’s defense is by running the football. The problem is NC State has shown little to no ability to do that successfully against quality competition. The Wolfpack barely got over the 100-yard mark against an average Texas Tech defense. Last week against Clemson, NC State mustered a grand total of 34 yards on the ground. On the season, the Wolfpack have averaged 111.8 yards rushing per game against FBS opponents.
While the Wolfpack did return seven offensive starters and an experienced quarterback in Devin Leary, there were concerns that the receiving corps would regress relative to a year ago. So far, NC State has yet to have a go-to playmaker emerge in the passing game. That is unlikely to transpire this week against an underrated Florida State secondary.
Of course, the Seminoles’ offense will face a tough test in its own right against the stout Wolfpack defense. A defensive-minded affair certainly bodes well for the underdog to stay within the number. Bettors should make sure to target the extra half-point available at BetMGM.
Florida State vs. NC State O/U Pick
Under 50.5 (-109) ★★★
The fact that NC State does not appear to be equipped to take advantage of Florida State’s poor run defense looms large in regard to handicapping the game total as well. Neither team has been particularly consistent on offense this season which leads us to a contrarian play on the Under.
It’s clear that the Wolfpack’s defense is the heart and soul of the team again this season. Coming into Week 6, the unit has allowed only 18.5 points per game. Florida State has plenty of talent at wide receiver but the offensive line will need to prove it can protect QB Jordan Travis.
Meanwhile, the experienced FSU defensive secondary will presumably have an advantage over the Wolfpack’s lackluster receiving corps. Heck, even Clemson’s atrocious secondary allowed only 245 yards through the air to NC State last week.
It’s also worth noting that neither team averages an overly fast pace offensively. The Seminoles, in particular, have actually been one of the slower teams in all of college football this season. A per-game average of 67.3 offensive plays ranks 92nd in the country. With both teams figuring to attempt to establish the run in this matchup, the clock figures to be running steadily.
Florida State vs. NC State Prop Pick
First quarter total: Under 10.5 (-120) ★★★
Both Florida State and NC State rank among the top-20 in scoring offense in the first quarter of games this season at 10.5 and 10.0 points, respectively. However, the first quarter scoring averages of both teams have been inflated by outputs against much lesser defensive opponents.
In two previous games against Power 5 competition, NC State has scored only nine points in the first quarter. While Florida State has faced four Power 5 opponents to date, Louisville and Boston College are two teams that clearly have defensive issues. Against LSU and Wake Forest, the ‘Noles combined to score just 10 first quarter points.
Where to Bet on Florida State vs. NC State Picks
Florida State-NC State picks from 10/6/2022 at 3:24 p.m. ET.
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