Can Notre Dame keep up its newfound momentum against No. 16 BYU? Read on for our BYU-Notre Dame picks.
Notre Dame “hosts” BYU on Saturday in the 11th edition of the neutral-site Shamrock Series on Saturday. Can Marcus Freeman’s Fighting Irish group continue their climb back to respectability Saturday?
BYU vs. Notre Dame Game Info
Date: Saturday, Oct. 8, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
BYU vs. Notre Dame Odds
BYU vs. Notre Dame Odds Analysis
The line opened for this neutral site game with Notre Dame favored by 2.5 points. Seeing 59% of the money on their side, the Irish got up to -3.5 at DraftKings and FanDuel before finally reaching 4 points on Saturday.
The opening total of 53.5 has come down to 51 at DratKings (-110) and 50.5 at FanDuel (-110). This move runs contrary to the betting action as the Over has drawn 79% of the tickets.
BYU vs. Notre Dame Picks
BYU vs. Notre Dame ATS Pick
BYU +3.5 (-108) ★★★★
Notre Dame has gone 10-0 in Shamrock Series history. However, this year’s BYU team is arguably the most capable that the Irish will have ever faced in the event. And the particular location for this one could diminish the Irish’s crowd advantage.
Last September, BYU faced Arizona in a game at Allegiant Stadium that set the record at the time for attendance at a football game in Nevada. Though Notre Dame fans exist worldwide, I’m curious to see the crowd split given BYU’s favorable history in this building.
I wouldn’t have the guts to take BYU on the moneyline in a series in which the Irish have never lost. But in reality, those past players and coaches aren’t here in 2022. BYU is a top 50 team per ESPN’s FPI and has an overtime win over Baylor to its credit this season.
BYU vs. Notre Dame O/U Pick
Over 50.5 (-110) ★★★★
BYU games have gone 4-1 to the Over this season. Though Notre Dame has trended in the opposite direction at 1-3 on the Over/Under, the Irish found their stride offensively in their most recent contest. Notre Dame hit a season-high of 45 points in a 45-32 win at North Carolina to help push that game to the Over by 22 points.
Although it still ranks 36th in defensive efficiency among FBS teams according to ESPN’s FPI, the Irish defense was generous to the Tar Heels in that game. BYU has a similarly potent offense (20th in offensive efficiency in FBS) and average 34.4 points per game. Even in a tough road loss at Oregon, BYU has not been held below 20 points this season.
I’m also encouraged by the Irish’s ability to score at UNC, a sign that they may be turning the corner from those early-season woes. The total dropping 3 points in our favor helps clinch our Over pick in a game for which both teams should score into the mid-to-upper 20s.
BYU vs. Notre Dame Prop Pick
BYU team total Over 23.5 (-111) ★★★
BYU’s only game scoring below this 23.5-point threshold set by FanDuel was the 41-20 loss at Oregon on September 17. Though Notre Dame has a more efficient defense than Oregon according to FPI, the Irish shouldn’t get the full-blown benefit of a home crowd in this neutral site game less than 400 miles from Provo, Utah.
Notre Dame also showed a willingness to play to a shootout in an explosive effort for its offense two weeks ago against UNC. That’s a shift compared to the way we saw Notre Dame slog through its first three games of the season.
BYU’s 67th-ranked unit by defensive efficiency may surrender 30-plus points to an Irish offense that ranks inside the top 40, even with its slow start. The Cougars pushing the tempo out of some late-game desperation helps our cause.
Where to Bet on BYU vs. Notre Dame Picks
BYU-Notre Dame picks from 10/6/2022 at 4:25 p.m. ET.