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Jaxson Dart of the Mississippi Rebels looks to make a pass play during the first half against the Kentucky Wildcats.
Jaxson Dart of the Mississippi Rebels looks to make a pass play during the first half against the Kentucky Wildcats. Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images/AFP.

Ole Miss has drawn 83% of the tickets and the spread is moving against the hone underdog Vanderbilt Commodores. Let's examine the matchup in our Ole Miss-Vanderbilt picks.

All 14 teams in the SEC will be in action this Saturday. One of the matchups pits the undefeated Ole Miss Rebels against the Vanderbilt Commodores.

The Ole Miss defense forced fumbles during each of Kentucky’s final two possessions in Week 5 to secure a thrilling three-point victory. The Rebels rose to No. 9 in the latest AP Poll following the statement win.

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt comes in off a bye and will enjoy a rest advantage in addition to home field in this matchup.

Here are our top picks for the Week 6 matchup between Ole Miss and Vanderbilt (odds via BetMGM and PointsBet; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5 star scale)

Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt Picks

Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt Against the Spread Pick

Vanderbilt +17.5 (-110) ★★★

If Ole Miss is fully focused, notching a 17-plus-point win over an inferior Vanderbilt team is quite doable. But Ole Miss just won a thrilling game over Kentucky, and there are three tough tests still to come against Auburn, LSU, and Texas A&M in October. A date with lowly Vanderbilt comes with all the makings of a letdown spot.

Bettors also must not overlook the Commodores getting two weeks to rest and prepare for this matchup. Vanderbilt suffered only a two-touchdown loss in Oxford during the 2021 season as a 36-point underdog. Just like Saturday’s contest, Ole Miss had just broken into the AP Top 10 the week prior to that game last year.

While the Rebels' prolific rushing attack will certainly challenge Vandy’s defense, the Commodores' offense has vastly improved. Ole Miss’ defense could get caught flat-footed if it's still living large after the dramatic ending to last week’s game.

Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt Over/Under Pick

Under 62 (-107) ★★

While the initial inkling is to take the Over, the line already moving more than three points opens the window to buy back in the opposite direction. 

Offensively, Ole Miss will likely save its best stuff for upcoming games against more formidable opponents. Vanderbilt’s defense has been struggling, but there's experience and talent within the unit. The Rebels being such a run-heavy offense also bodes well for the Under. Feeding Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans the ball will keep the clock moving.

While Vanderbilt’s offense held its own for the better part of non-conference play, it was a different story against Alabama two weeks ago. The quarterback position being in flux after Mike Wright was benched in favor of A.J. Swann makes it even more difficult to trust the Commodores' offense.

Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt Prop Pick

Ole Miss team total: Between 31-40 points (+210) ★★★

There’s no disputing the Rebels are capable of moving the ball against Vanderbilt’s suspect defense. However, eclipsing the 40-point threshold could be a tall order.

If Ole Miss is going to experience a letdown, that figures to come in the form of a slow start. So one of two outcomes seems likely to transpire. Either Vandy’s defense will hold its own early on, or a big lead will result in the Rebels calling off the dogs late.

PointsBet lists an identical +210 price on the Rebels to score between 41 and 50 points. As such, betting one unit on both points bands should be a profitable strategy.

Where to Bet on Ole Miss-Vanderbilt Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Ole Miss-Vanderbilt picks made 10/6/2022 at 4:20 p.m. ET