EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

[EaglesPhan36]

ROTTERDAMN DEUCE: YOUZHNY + MAYER [-127]
Youzhny is back in action for the first time since Melbourne and gets a pretty nice draw to open with Granollers. Granollers is 1-3 this season and he's dropped his last six sets in pretty convincing fashion. On indoor hard courts, the Spaniard had his one moment on this surface last year in Valencia. However, the quality of competition he beat there is far less than what he's facing to open. Youzhny made three finals on this surface last year, including here in Rotterdam. He lost to Raonic in Melbourne which we know now isn't a bad loss. Youzhny has the edge on this surface and so long as he brings an adequate service game, I THINK he should advance. Mayer has had a pretty solid start to 2011. He's made two semis and a quarterfinal along with knocking Davydenko out of the Aussie Open in the 1st round. Mayer still may not be at his best on this surface, but he showed well last week in Zagreb before flaming out to Berrer. In spite of that performance, he matches up well against Feliciano Lopez. Lopez is 0-5 all-time at this event and is just 2-4 this year. On indoor hard courts, Lopez has lost seven straight and eight of his last nine matches dating back to 2009. Mayer crushed him last Fall in Valencia, 6-2, 6-2. So long as Mayer doesn't carry any ill effects in from his semifinal loss last tournament, I rate him a better shot to move on over Lopez.

[face]

any chance baghdatis beats murray? baghdatis seems kind of powerful.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP ROTTERDAM DOUBLES: LOPEZ-LOPEZ -140
Felciano and Marc team up against Dutchmen Haase & de Bakker. Marc Lopez is the doubles specialist here as he's already done work in 2011 making his partners contenders. He teamed with Nadal to win the Doha doubles title. He took Granollers to the Zagreb final last week. In 2010, Marc Lopez won three doubles titles and showed well on indoor surfaces with different partners. Lopez made the finals in Montpellier and the semis in Valencia to close out the year on this surface with two different partners. Feliciano Lopez is no stranger to doubles. He paired up with a variety of partners in 2010 and went 9-15. Haase is the doubles player of the Dutch partners with this pairing having won a few matches last Summer on grass. Haase & de Bakker will look to capitalize on their serve to keep them competitive here, but I THINK Marc Lopez' class as a doubles player will give the Spaniards the edge to take this one in the end.

[EaglesPhan36]

any chance baghdatis beats murray? baghdatis seems kind of powerful.

Lots of people will be on Baghdatis today expecting Murray to have a hangover here. Surface favors Murray though IMO. He excels on it and this is the type of player Baghdatis typically has had some troubles with on indoor hard courts - good returners. If Murray's head is right, he wins this IMO. I'm a little surprised perhaps that he didn't take some more time off before returning to the court. Don't know if that is good or bad. I'm passing on this one personally.

Also was going to take Llodra for SBR points only, but the line is not up. Something doesn't sit right with me on that one against Tsonga to use real cash.

[nyed1010]

youzhny's line dropping, what's the deal with this?

[erkanua]

any chance baghdatis beats murray? baghdatis seems kind of powerful.

I think Baggy is absolutely the value side in this matchup. I know he prepare so hard for this season. Actually, he has the talent and physical capacity to reach a successful season and become the winner of this match. However, that's why I don't like Murray. He still has a great advantage to win this match. I cannot say Baggy will be likely the upset of the day but he is definitely the value play here.

[EaglesPhan36]

Had a bad feeling about Mayer the whole time I wrote this up and now I know it was the right feeling. I generally don't trust the guy but everything pointed his direction. Douchebag.

[EaglesPhan36]

MELZER +100
I may immediately regret this decision, but I THINK the fact that so many people jumped on board Cilic is crazy - changing him from a dog to the favorite? I'll pay to be wrong on the more consistent player of the two. At their best, this is about an even match-up on this serve. Cilic possesses more power than Melzer, but is prone to streaks of errors that can bury him quick. Against someone like Melzer, Cilic will need to have his game on-point from the beginning. Cilic's win over Zverev didn't yield much as Zverev is a mug. The more worrysome match came in Zagreb where Mayer blasted him off the court. Outside of his "home" tournament in 2010, Cilic was a mess on this surface much like he was everywhere else with a .500 in ATP tournaments. Melzer was solid on the surface and sports a 12-2 record on it since this time last year. If Melzer plays his consistent style and can dial up a bit better service game, I rate him a shot today and hope that Cilic brings a pocket full of errors.

[beefcake]

Llodra takes the first buts gets broken early in the second..

[EaglesPhan36]

Llodra +3 was the play I wanted to make, but 5Dimes juiced the fukk out of it at -138 and I passed. Something told me Tsonga was going to win this. Wish I would have taken the handicap, but I guess I should count myself fortunate to not have taken Llodra ML.

[EaglesPhan36]

Guess this is about right, giving it back today after a good day yesterday.

[757sFinest]

melzer is getting wrecked. he can't do a thing with return serve.

[SRBI]

Nice work EP keep at it.

[757sFinest]

Someone must have known something about Melzer cause he is waaayyy of his game. Looks uninterested.

[Mikail]

Someone must have known something about Melzer cause he is waaayyy of his game. Looks uninterested.

This is an example of why line movement should be somewhat a factor when wagering on these smaller tourneys.

[757sFinest]

This is an example of why line movement should be somewhat a factor when wagering on these smaller tourneys.

true..showing some signs of life in the 2nd. just smashed his racket. Waiting for him to go crazy. He is HOT right now!

[EaglesPhan36]

Meh. Looking like an 0-fer morning. Doubles play shit out of the gate so far. Might play a couple in Brazil, thinking and waiting for this doubles play to finish sucking ass.

[rickosu]

This is an example of why line movement should be somewhat a factor when wagering on these smaller tourneys.

yep, just in the last day we saw it in the cilic and giraldo matches.

[EaglesPhan36]

COSTA DO SAUIPE

MELLO-MONTANES OVER 22 [-110]
Mello plays well in his home country, but Montanes is the better clay court talent. This however is Montanes' first clay court match of 2011 and his other results haven't been all that solid either. I'd expect perhaps a slow start from Montanes here with Mello in decent form and having played well on these courts last year. Montanes doesn't have a great track record at this tournament either. Tough to gauge Mello's actual chances here as his match vs. Giraldo almost needs to be disregarded due to fatigue for Giraldo, but I THINK if Mello serves solid from the start, this one will roller coaster it's way to an over.

Scratch the Mayer play. Only going with this total.

[Mikail]

yep, just in the last day we saw it in the cilic and giraldo matches.

yes. I think Line movement may have some merit here in these tourneys. Like EP has pointed out though during the bigger slams it doesn't really mean much.

[rickosu]

yes. I think Line movement may have some merit here in these tourneys. Like EP has pointed out though during the bigger slams it doesn't really mean much.

yea... i think i was the one who pointed that out to you

[EaglesPhan36]

I over thought everything today. Quitting while I am behind.

[Mikail]

yea... i think i was the one who pointed that out to you

Yes it was you sir. I cannot steal the credit. Good call guy.

[EaglesPhan36]

ROTTERDAM DEUCE: YOUZHNY + BAGHDATIS [+102]
Youzhny draws de Bakker who will try to use his big serve to off-set the better overall game of the Russian. I THINK Youzhny's consistency on this surface is the edge. Baghdatis against Lopez. Lopez beat Mayer easily as it looked like Mayer's loss last week was a precursor to this week. Baggy dismissed Murray easily. Not reading too much into that as Murray mentally is probably lost right now. On this surface, Lopez is nothing special in spite of his win yesterday. If Baghdatis can come out with a consistent serve, I THINK he works a win.

[Mikail]

ROTTERDAM DEUCE: YOUZHNY + BAGHDATIS [+102]
Youzhny draws de Bakker who will try to use his big serve to off-set the better overall game of the Russian. I THINK Youzhny's consistency on this surface is the edge. Baghdatis against Lopez. Lopez beat Mayer easily as it looked like Mayer's loss last week was a precursor to this week. Baggy dismissed Murray easily. Not reading too much into that as Murray mentally is probably lost right now. On this surface, Lopez is nothing special in spite of his win yesterday. If Baghdatis can come out with a consistent serve, I THINK he works a win.

This parlay looks good. Kind of worries me cuz it looks too good and the price of both Youzhny and Baghdatis seems low to me. I am gonna tail and hope we cash.

[757sFinest]

let's get it!!!

[noober]

good luck today.

[EaglesPhan36]

QUIMPER CHALLENGER: JOUAN -130
France vs. France here as Jouan takes on Millot. The two have met twice in their careers with Jouan winning both match-ups, including one on hard courts just last week. The main difference between the two is the extra pop Jouan brings on his serve. He can get more cheap points this way, while Millot wants to use his speed and return ability to extend points. Millot was in better form to start the year after making a run through qualis into the Australian Open main draw and winning a Challenger on this surface. From looking at the match stats for the 1st round plus in this tournament, it appears this surface is favoring bigger servers, so with his head-2-head advantage over Millot and ability to score those cheapies with the big serve, I THINK Jouan has a shot today to score another win against Millot. Imperative for Jouan to get in a good percentage on first serve.

[EaglesPhan36]

Baggy in control after a tense first set.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP COSTA DO SAUIPE: MELLO -160
Hard to dismiss Mello's play in his home country as he takes on Andujar today. Mello has rolled to wins over Giraldo & Montanes so far this week. You can blame the Giraldo win for fatigue on Giraldo or Montanes for not having played on dirt yet this year, but Mello took care of business. He's only been broken once on serve and that will serve him well today if he can continue that dominance. Andujar worked past a fatigued Robredo yesterday in three sets after whipping Gimeno-Traver in the 1st round. Mello got on a similar roll at this tournament last year with confidence building wins along the way and can book a 2nd straight trip to the semis today with a win.

[757sFinest]

EP. Trying to decide if I should hedge the last leg of parlay. Youzhny is that last leg. You think he has got this or should i throw some on Bakker?

[757sFinest]

What about a Bakker/Melo parlay?

[EaglesPhan36]

Always chances that guys step up and win, but de Bakker is inexperienced on this surface and wasn't all that impressive winning over Petzschner. To me, this is all on Youzhny to win the match or give it away.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP SAN JOSE: SMYCZEK +4 [+115]
Nishikori & Smyczek are almost identical in stature and they both employ a similar style of play, utiziling speed & return ability. Nishikori obviously is better at performing that style on most occasions at this point, but I THINK these are also the types of players who can make it tougher for Nishikori if they play well. Nishikori does not possess a dominant serve, so he will leave openings for opponents at times. This surface also is not the most conducive to Nishikori's game. He has played well on outdoor hard courts, but indoors he is still a bit green. Smyczek isn't likely to slay Kei today, but I also THINK if all things are equal today that he could keep this within this number. Smyczek is just one of those pesky guys who seems to stick around sometimes when he shouldn't. I won't read a ton into Smyczek beating him in LA qualis last summer as Nishikori is in better form now, but that match will give both something to think about today.

[Mikail]

Yes! Already on it. I was comtemplating Smyczek ML but the handicap looks more likely. Smyczek +4 @ +115