EP I had Berrer to win this one too and didn't place my bet last night. So pissed right now. Totally forgot about this match.
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Oh well, luckily I'm staying afloat in other sports but tennis is definitely keeping my profits lower this past two weeks.
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ZAGREB: BERRER [-135]
Berrer has the experience edge and will be better rested after Dodig rallied through a tough three setter against Garcia-Lopez. Dodig also is void of a ton of experience against lefties, which could benefit Berrer here. Berrer lost in the final here last year to a Croat in Cilic and will have the crowd against him again. Said it all tournament, if Berrer gets his serve in consistently he is difficult to beat. He needs a quick start, but I THINK this is Berrer's match.
MOVISTAR: GIRALDO [+130]
Both Giraldo and Robredo battled tough in the semis, but it was Robredo who showed weaker to me. Robredo's serve was vulnerable with 14 break opps given. He's been the beneficiary of playing some weaker servers thus far who have given him opportunities to break back when broken. Giraldo, I THINK will be a tougher nut to crack. Giraldo even when not getting his 1st serve down has been solid on 2nd serve, netting in the high 50s or low 60-percent as far as points won. I THINK if Giraldo is hungry enough, he can get that elusive title.
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Make sure you get those Robredo bets in.
I suck.Comment -
I THINK if I start fading myself perhaps I can win?
Easy Robredo win half way home.Comment -
No, you don't suck. Giraldo made a very fast comeback and still in progress to win the title.Comment -
and how about that!?! Giraldo blew it up and lost his first title from 5-2 in final set. Completely mess...Comment -
Told you, perfect fade material. You couldn't script that shit if you tried. I am poison.Comment -
ATP ROTTERDAM: LLODRA +160
Llodra draws Davydenko. This for me is simply a matter of how Llodra serves. If he serves well, he can win. He's beaten Davydenko on this surface and is clearly at home in the controlled conditions indoors on a quick surface. Llodra generally was better in the French tournaments on this surface, but the Donkey has been very hit or miss again this season. The Russian has had some good runs here and some blah runs in Rotterdam and Llodra beat him here in 2008. There is zero intimidation factor. I THINK if Llodra is pumping in his 1st serve and chalking up some aces that he'll be in this until the end with a shot the win.
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Not about the fade material but I think you are on the wrong side in this one. I expect Davy in 2.Comment -
DEUCE: TURSUNOV + MELZER -135
Tursunov draws Golubev who has been completely awful in 2011 at 0-5 and barely competitive in those matches. The Russian meanwhile has won a hard court Challenger title already and made it through qualis here. He's trying to rebuild his ranking and winning a few this week will help that. Melzer draws Huta-Galung who will be a tough out, but someone Melzer has an experience edge on with this surface. Melzer went 13-3 on indoor hard courts last year while the Dutchman is about a .500 performer. Huta-Galung is a good Challenger type, but he hasn't stepped up quite yet on the main level ATP matches.
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Like the Tursunov and Melzer parlay. Also made a small play on Llodra at +155 Let's have a good day.
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Hot damn. Llodra in straights. Shaky tie break where he almost blew it, but the Donkey helps give it back to him.Comment -
COSTA DO SAUIPE: ROMBOLI +125
Romboli is in here against the more seasoned Ramirez-Hidalgo, but the better form belongs to Romboli. The Brazilian wildcard made the final of the Bucaramanga Clay Challenger, losing in three sets. Along the way he scalped some veteran junk ballers like Acasuso and Junqueira. Ramirez-Hidalgo meanwhile is 0-3 in 2011 with his only clay court match resulting in a tough three set loss to Mello last time out. Ramirez-Hidalgo had some solid results on dirt in 2010 on the Challenger circuit, so he's definitely not out of his element - but he has not looked that sharp so far. Giving youth a shot today as the 21-year old has shown some ability here and if Ramirez-Hidalgo shows up without his best, I THINK Romboli could surprise.
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Nobody giving him a shot..Just the way we like it!..By the way, great call on Llodra..!!Comment -
ATP SAN JOSE: BROWN -102
Brown has had a pretty poor start to the year with a 1-3 mark. He draws Donald Young today who has also not done much in 2011, losing in qualifying in Sydney and then being dismissed in straights by Cilic at Melbourne. The surface certainly should favor the bigger hitting Brown although both have not fared well on this surface yet. Both are right around .500 with only a handful of matches on the surface in the last year. Brown's power serve will be difficult for Young to catch-up with if he's got it working. Young's best asset is his speed and return game which is negated if Brown's getting that 1st serve in consistently for cheap points. I THINK Brown needs to get in 65% or so on 1st serve to give himself the best chance. Young's own serve isn't much of a weapon, so even a plodding oaf like Brown might get some break opps.
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The line on brown moved to even in my book. Just won with smyczek so I might roll with brown at even money.Comment -
What you guys think of Hewitt vs Phau? Hewitt is the last match of my 8-team parlay.Comment -
Hewitt should take him.Comment -
This Romboli kid just completely falling apart. Was up 4-2 in the 1st, lost that and broken to start the 2nd. Dead meat.Comment -
Dustin Brown the Ass Clown. Oh well 2-2 and a small profit is sadly my best day in two weeks.
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CALOUNDRA CHALLENGER
YANG +159
Spot fade on Guccione who withdrew from the final of the Burnie Challenger yesterday due to an Achilles problem. Very short turnaround against Yang. The Chinese player is nothing special, but if you look at this hard court results, he makes his foes work. Against what looks to be a gimpy Guccione, Yang could be primed to work an upset here. If you have a one set book, this could be a good retirement angle to try tonight.
ROSOL +100
The Czech draws Cipolla who won the Burnie Challenger when Guccione afforded him a walkover in the final. That did give a busy Cipolla an extra day of rest in prepartion for today, but he still had to travel cross-country to Caloundra. Rosol showed solid in Singapore with a finals appearance there to start the year and understandably flopped in the opening round in Burnie after the fatiguing travel and work schedule. He showed solid fight in Singapore and a weapon I THINK that makes him a shot to beat Cipolla today and that is a slightly better serve. Cipolla in spite of his Burnie run is like Rosol, more home on clay. Cipolla has played three straight tournaments now with little downtime and I THINK Rosol should be well rested here so that if he brings his best, he rates a shot to win.
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ATP ROTTERDAM
NIEMINEN +245
It'd be easy to dismiss Nieminen's chances right away after Ferrer dismissed him pretty routinely at the Australian Open in four sets, but this is a different surface that does not suit Ferrer's defensive style as much as the slower courts at Melbourne did. Nieminen has shown plenty of ability on indoor hard courts with three QF, one SF and one Finals appearance last year on this surface. Ferrer did show well in back-2-back tourneys late in the Fall, but the majority of those two runs came against younger players and less accomplished vets. He's under .500 on this surface and generally does not play on it that much. Motivation is often a key factor in these post-Slam tournaments. Ferrer may or may not care about this tournament. Regardless, I THINK Nieminen has a shot today.
de BAKKER-GULBIS OVER 22.5 [-120]
Hard to back either of these players given their current form, but the OVER presents a good shot to me, I THINK. Gulbis has an experience edge on this surface, but mentally who ever knows where this kid is. de Bakker meanwhile has dropped seven straight matches dating back to last season. While the losses have piled up, da Bakker has shown very good fighting spirit. He's also played a tie break set in nine of his last ten matches. Both players can serve big and both players can really struggle with consistently getting their 1st serve in which leads to breaks. I THINK I expect either a very tight two set affair or a topsy turvy three setter.
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EP, ljubicic vs stakhovsky, who do you like? Most even odds match, don't want to lay any chalk especially after losing last week with a -500 fav. And I like your underdog bets, but I NEVER win when I bet the dog. Kanepi-sevastova is also pretty even.Comment -
I expect Kanepi vs. Sevastova to be a big fight
Two small neighbouring countries.
I will probably go with Sevastova and OVER 21.5 hereComment -
anyone else like tsonga? my model has him @ -5, so i'm pounding -3.Comment -
yeah big money moves the line but apparently not always smart money. I know EP and Shari both have mentioned this a number of times. Public money can move a line but for example they could just be playing on player they've heard of. A lot of the time tennis gets wagers from those who do not know much about the players. You'd have to really get them to explain it but I have found it to be true on more than one occasion.Comment -
People you must know that Ljubicic is spent force,and Stakhovsky future top 30 player maybe even a star. We will see,but my bet is on Sergiy.Comment -
i think i agree with this in when you're talking about big matches involving big names (ala federer, nadal, djok, murray), but in the first rounds of these smaller tournaments that are a lot of the time not even televised and less likely to have public interest, i'm leaning to the movements being more based off sharp $. imo obvComment
