EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

Mikail · 01-31-11, 04:01 PM

How did we manage to overlook Frederico Gil today over Robredo? Gil defeated Robredo in their only other match. Gil +200 and he is up a set now.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-31-11, 04:13 PM

Well that's a good way to open post-Slam. On Nalbandian, Berlocq is not a complete nobody. He plays on clay a lot. All said Nalbandian SHOULD have too much game for him, but there's very little use to Nalbandian at that price even in a parlay because you'll have to load up with 3-4 to try and make the price decent and that drives down your chances to win.

beefcake · 01-31-11, 04:16 PM

Raonic is a fav now over LU..??

..Amazing how one good run at a major can cause the oddsmakers to make you federer all ofa sudden. I hate to say this but I like Lu here..

EaglesPhan36 · 01-31-11, 04:23 PM

I won't touch that one because the price is too stiff in spite of his run. -190? Maybe -140 to -150. Nothing though suggests Lu beats him. If Raonic hadn't gone through qualis here, maybe I'd rate Lu a shot because he played here in 2010, but Raonic made it through two qualifying rounds and unless he has an off day - has too much power for Lu IMO. Look at Lu's hard court resume, not distinguished against power players.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-31-11, 06:30 PM

BURNIE CHALLENGER: CIPOLLA [-140]
Cipolla draws the home-standing Aussie youngster Millman here. Although this is not Cipolla's surface, his form in 2011 indicates an edge over his competitor today. Cipolla is 7-3 on hard courts this season, having made it through Aussie Open qualis and scoring two wins in each of two Challengers entered this season. Millman meanwhile has scored some wins in qualis in this Australian hard court swing, but is 3-4 so far this season. He's had one moment in the sun on this surface and that was winning the Sacramento Challenger last October. Last year at this event, he beat up on a couple players ranked in the 400s before losing to fellow Aussie Greg Jones in the QFs. Neither of these guys has great weapons, but Cipolla's form I THINK is the key here. He's got some confidence on this surface right now and is a crafty player. Despite his affinity for clay, I THINK he's shown over the past few years that early in the season on this surface he can be useful against a player who has yet to find his footing consistently against ATP vets.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-31-11, 09:51 PM

BURNIE CHALLENGER: ZEMLJA [+100]
Zemlja draws the home standing Aussie Matthew Ebden. These two met earlier in the month at the Brisbane qualis with Ebden pulling through in a competitive and tight three set battle. Both guys showed well at the Aussie Open in losing with Ebden fighting Michael Russell before falling in four tight sets, while Zemlja lost in five to Baghdatis. Zemlja was back on-court in the Honolulu Challenger where he lost to Bester last week. Ebden has been off. Couple reasons to like Zemlja here. He's played this event two years running, making the finals two years ago and making the QFs last year before losing to Tomic. Ebden is 0-2, losing in the 1st round in the last two years. This is a very even match and Zemlja could have revenge as a slight motivator. Both can carry serves that will hold easily, so getting the 1st serve in I THINK will be a key. In an even match-up, the better price is gravy for me.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-31-11, 09:52 PM

Cipolla won easily - hooray ... Mikail, I thought about Gil but decided against playing that. Robredo wound up winning in 3, but I didn't like not having any clay form to judge on either.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-01-11, 12:49 AM

2.11.11 DEUCE

WOLMARANS + PETZSCHNER [+100]
Wolmarans draws Sijsling in Johannesburg. Sjisling is an absolute mess on this surface having not won an ATP main level draw match on outdoor hard courts since EVER. Wolmarans hasn't done a ton on the ATP level either, but he's home standing here in South Africa and I THINK his serve is big enough to be a factor here. Petzschner has been competitive early this season despite so-so results. Indoors, he's been pretty solid in his limited exposure. Last year, he played just two tournaments - including Zagreb - with a 6-2 mark. His opponent, Hajek, is under .500 for his career on this surface. He's lost in the main draw in seven straight matches and is 0-1 on this court. Parlay them at +100.

Shifty107 · 02-01-11, 01:43 AM

Gl tonight EP. Like the parlay alot.

whitedogau · 02-01-11, 02:57 AM

Originally posted by beefcake

Raonic is a fav now over LU..??

..Amazing how one good run at a major can cause the oddsmakers to make you federer all ofa sudden. I hate to say this but I like Lu here..

we all know what happenned to federer dont we!!

tankman777 · 02-01-11, 03:07 AM

tailing eagles phan parlay

BathingApe · 02-01-11, 03:12 AM

Originally posted by beefcake

Raonic is a fav now over LU..??

..Amazing how one good run at a major can cause the oddsmakers to make you federer all ofa sudden. I hate to say this but I like Lu here..

My thoughts exactly, idk I still think Raonic wins, but I don't want to put too much on him, especially with the kind of week I had last week.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-01-11, 07:51 AM

Well Zemlja won the 1st two games of the match and then apparently decided it was time to go Koala hunting. Petzschner easy winner early and it's a SNOW DAY in Texas?!?! WTF. That means me inside, gonna go get my snuggle on and then some power posting. Looking over the rest of the tennis docket now because this is gonna be a fun day.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-01-11, 08:51 AM

MOVISTAR OPEN

SOUZA-CUEVAS OVER 21[ -128]
Cuevas hasn't seen any court time since playing a tough Australian Open match while Souza got in some dirt ball last week in the Bucaramanga Challenger. For me, it could be expected that Cuevas isn't his sharpest to start this match off while Souza could take advantage there. He is a very capable clay court player and these two have met before with Souza taking a set off Cuevas in a tight three set affair. Souza also played very well at this tournament last season, running through qualis all the way to the semifinals. Might not be in the cards for an upset - although it would not be shocking - but with Sousa's extra time on-court recently and both with the ability to have potent serves when working, I THINK this one can get over even in straights, but there seems a possibility this goes three.

HOCEVAR [+160]
Taking a crack here or maybe just smoking crack, but his opponent Horacio Zeballos has not been off to an impressive start in 2011. Zeballos is 2-2, losing on hard courts to a player ranked in the mid 400s and dropping one last week on clay to Reda El Amrani on the Challenger level. El Amrani is not much more than a Challenger level clay court guy who every once in a great while will have a decent run. Surprisingly, Zeballos who I had always thought was a decent dirt baller has not had much more than a .500 record on the surface in the past year. Hocevar meanwhile got through qualis here, so will have a higher comfort level to open on the surface. Zeballos has handled Hocevar in the head-2-head [3-1] but they have often been close, cagey affairs. With Zeballos seemingly a little off at the moment from match-2-match, I THINK I'll have a go at Hocevar.

biff · 02-01-11, 02:28 PM

Phan, buddy, you know what is going on with the fritz match? i tailed you and the match was delayed by rain and had a start at 10am but now it is showing the match for the next day and my book (5dimes) has the line down?

does this mean i'm going to have a lot of money tied up for a day?

Thanks.

brandoc · 02-01-11, 02:34 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

MOVISTAR OPEN

SOUZA-CUEVAS OVER 21[ -128]
Cuevas hasn't seen any court time since playing a tough Australian Open match while Souza got in some dirt ball last week in the Bucaramanga Challenger. For me, it could be expected that Cuevas isn't his sharpest to start this match off while Souza could take advantage there. He is a very capable clay court player and these two have met before with Souza taking a set off Cuevas in a tight three set affair. Souza also played very well at this tournament last season, running through qualis all the way to the semifinals. Might not be in the cards for an upset - although it would not be shocking - but with Sousa's extra time on-court recently and both with the ability to have potent serves when working, I THINK this one can get over even in straights, but there seems a possibility this goes three.

HOCEVAR [+160]
Taking a crack here or maybe just smoking crack, but his opponent Horacio Zeballos has not been off to an impressive start in 2011. Zeballos is 2-2, losing on hard courts to a player ranked in the mid 400s and dropping one last week on clay to Reda El Amrani on the Challenger level. El Amrani is not much more than a Challenger level clay court guy who every once in a great while will have a decent run. Surprisingly, Zeballos who I had always thought was a decent dirt baller has not had much more than a .500 record on the surface in the past year. Hocevar meanwhile got through qualis here, so will have a higher comfort level to open on the surface. Zeballos has handled Hocevar in the head-2-head [3-1] but they have often been close, cagey affairs. With Zeballos seemingly a little off at the moment from match-2-match, I THINK I'll have a go at Hocevar.

Souza actually won that game (Jan 2009) mate, not just a set..

"Joao Souza(BRA) DEFEATED (2)Pablo Cuevas(URU) 3-6 7-6(4) 7-5"

I think given what you say (recent form on dirt, past performance at Santiago, H2H) it maybe worth a small punt on Souza outright.. or at least the handicap which is +4 at pinnys...

biff · 02-01-11, 02:37 PM

Yes, it was delayed. Wow, it is now being played at 2/2 at 4am

this is not good.

Pew Pew · 02-01-11, 03:02 PM

FUUUUUUU Juan Monaco FUUUUUUUUU

biff · 02-01-11, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by Pew Pew

FUUUUUUU Juan Monaco FUUUUUUUUU

really, do not hold back now... let it all out

Pride · 02-01-11, 04:23 PM

souza is an easy winner

EaglesPhan36 · 02-01-11, 04:52 PM

Thought there would be upsets in Santiago today. My shot didn't pan out, losing a tight two setter. Looks like I should have tried Souza although that 1st set was a WTA special with multiple breaks and it could have gone either way.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-01-11, 05:11 PM

Nice Souza finally choked on-serve. Over wins so long as they complete the match.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-01-11, 05:53 PM

BURNIE CHALLENGER DEUCE: HERNYCH + GUCCIONE [+115]

Hernych draws James Ward, both working through the 1st round yesterday. Hernych had a bit tougher time against a qualifier as he dropped the opening set before winning going away in the 3rd. Ward beat home-standing Aussie Carsten Ball rather easily, sporting a solid serve while Ball looked hapless. Hernych though is the form here. He started the year in solid standing by making the 3rd round at the Australian Open, beating Istomin & Bellucci after working through qualis. This surface may not be his best, but given current form and the quality of his younger opponent overall - this is Hernych's match. Guccione takes on Sugita. The big lefty was getting his 1st serve in yesterday and that enabled him to work a win. Sugita worked from a set down to rally past a quali. Sugita has shown some ability on this surface at this lower level, but against lefties he's just 2-6 on the Challenger level and if Guccione's serve is on, the big stiff should take this match. If it's not, then I THINK this will be ugly. Parlay at +115.

DMB40 · 02-01-11, 08:52 PM

eagles do you have any opinion on the Wolmarans vs sijsling match?

beefcake · 02-01-11, 10:05 PM

Have fun with Gucci..No way for me. good luck!

EaglesPhan36 · 02-01-11, 10:10 PM

Originally posted by DMB40

eagles do you have any opinion on the Wolmarans vs sijsling match?

I've got Wolmarans to finish a parlay, but the price as it is now is unplayable unless you parlay it with something. As poor as Sijsling is, Wolmarans shouldn't be that high.

I know beef. Scary proposition to take Guccione, but I like the match-up. Of course it's raining and looks like I'll have to wait a day.

beefcake · 02-01-11, 10:10 PM

Dam, I think Lacko might be the value bet of the tourney...GG Lopez? Give me a break!

EaglesPhan36 · 02-01-11, 10:14 PM

I again don't share your like of Lacko. GGL probably shouldn't be that big a favorite perhaps, but Lacko's serve is just shit.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-02-11, 01:35 AM

2.2.11: DEUCE

STEPANEK + RAONIC [-117]
Stepanek goes up against Mayer who barely survived his opener against the inexperienced Croat Skugor. Stepanek had few issues with Koubek who was hapless in the opening round. Stepanek has proven useful on this surface with an 8-6 mark on the surface in 2010. He's won nearly 69% of his indoor hard court matches in his career whereas Mayer is an under .500 performer. Mayer did perform well at the Stockholm tournament last season, but he's struggled in three matches since that time on this surface. Stepanek won comfortably against Mayer in Sydney at the start of the year and if he improves his serve, I THINK he can repeat that and move on. Raonic again gets heavy favoritism from the books as he faces Greul in Johannesburg. Raonic looked solid against Lu winning in straights. Gruel worked past a lucky loser in the 1st round. He's not good on this surface though at well under .500 over his last 50 matches on outdoor hard courts. Raonic has shown every bit as good as his Aussie Open performance in qualis and his first rounder here. If he continues to pump that 1st serve in and hit his heavy ground strokes, Greul stands little chance. Parlay at -117.

Beason5209 · 02-02-11, 01:44 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

2.2.11: DEUCE

STEPANEK + RAONIC [-117]
Stepanek goes up against Mayer who barely survived his opener against the inexperienced Croat Skugor. Stepanek had few issues with Koubek who was hapless in the opening round. Stepanek has proven useful on this surface with an 8-6 mark on the surface in 2010. He's won nearly 69% of his indoor hard court matches in his career whereas Mayer is an under .500 performer. Mayer did perform well at the Stockholm tournament last season, but he's struggled in three matches since that time on this surface. Stepanek won comfortably against Mayer in Sydney at the start of the year and if he improves his serve, I THINK he can repeat that and move on. Raonic again gets heavy favoritism from the books as he faces Greul in Johannesburg. Raonic looked solid against Lu winning in straights. Gruel worked past a lucky loser in the 1st round. He's not good on this surface though at well under .500 over his last 50 matches on outdoor hard courts. Raonic has shown every bit as good as his Aussie Open performance in qualis and his first rounder here. If he continues to pump that 1st serve in and hit his heavy ground strokes, Greul stands little chance. Parlay at -117.

I was just about to come here and ask who I should parlay Raonic with to get good value. You think Stepanek is the strongest value of all the other matches? His performance against Isner just really turned me off on him. I mean Isner almost bagelled him in one set.

What about adding Cilic into the parlay?

EaglesPhan36 · 02-02-11, 01:54 AM

No sure things in these smaller tournaments. With Cilic, you have to lay a lot more to start with to win something back which is why I did not want to think about using him. Stepanek isn't a sure thing, but I like his match-up with Mayer who really had no business winning his 1st round match. If you're looking for the most solid guy to pair him with in terms of winning, Bellucci in Chile might be the best. My book does not have that line yet, but he's about -300. Machado is a good Challenger clay court type, but Bellucci is a class better and is the defending champ in Santiago.

Beason5209 · 02-02-11, 02:04 AM

Thoughts on adding Lopez vs Dancevic? I'm Canadian and Dancevic does not impress me much at all. He has not been much of a factor in the past few years.

EaglesPhan36 · 02-02-11, 02:21 AM

Maybe. Lopez' desire though is always a question mark in these smaller tournament. I know he won it last year, but I don't think that means crap to him. This one is all about serving. Dancevic stays in matches when he serves well. Lopez is pretty much the same.

nyed1010 · 02-02-11, 03:19 AM

eaglesphan, what do you think about a medium-big play on stepanek? Don't know much about tennis, but after looking at your analysis and doing a bit of research, he looks like a really solid play against mayer, especially at -205. The only thing that is stopping me from laying big here is the fact that it's a small tourney and shit tends to happen at these things.

BathingApe · 02-02-11, 04:15 AM

I'm tailing on Stepanek. I had a bad day in college bball, so hopefully this starts my day off right. Did well well Raonic last night, too much for me to lay on him tonight though.