1.30.11 AUSTRALIAN OPEN
MURRAY +145
I've taken most of the day to read a lot of opinions on today's final. Most are much more impressed with Djokovic's run to the finals, but I THINK the Federer whipping really was his brightest moment as he rolled through inferior competition the entire way through. Berdych? This is not the same guy who was a major threat to the big boys middle of 2010 and he's always been a bad match-up against Djokovic. Djokovic was obviously the more consistent player against Federer, but Federer had been inconsistent in this tournament - with probably too many people coming away too impressed by his dismantling of Wawrinka. Wawrinka was outmatched and showed up scared. What I'm quite amazed by is that people don't look at the strategies that Murray applies in his matches more closely. They'll look at his match against Dolgopolov and wonder why he didn't blow the kid off the court. Well, neither did Robin Soderling. Dolgopolov is good, could be a bordeline stud on this surface if his head stays on straight. And then some will question how he played Ferrer. Perhaps content to engaging in rallies and "pushing the ball across the net." What's wrong with this? Murray knows Ferrer has no major weapons to hurt him. Ferrer's weapon is fitness and defense and Murray felt that he could force Ferrer to make errors in long rallies. He's not going to play Djokovic how he played Ferrer or how he played Dolgpolov or anyone else in this tournament. I don't THINK there is any question that he must be the aggressor. Engaging Djokovic in rallies and hoping for errors will prove to be a quick death with the way Djokovic is striking the ball. If he proves me wrong and isn't the strategist I THINK he is, than I'll get to go to sleep early. But, Murray knows Djokovic. Djokovic knows Murray. I THINK when Murray has been at his best on this surface, he's been aggressive. I give him a slight edge on-serve and despite improved fitness from the Serb, I THINK a longer match would favor Murray. For me, it is important for Murray to come out and not just compete early - but take it to Djokovic and work an early lead. Let Djokovic know it's going to be a long night. It was a very hot day in Melbourne today [97 F] and even though it will be about ten degrees cooler by match time, there will be lingering heat on that court which can sap some energy away easily for either player. Mental toughness will be huge here. Most don't think Murray has what it takes because of his failure in finals. Most THINK there is still too much pressure on him to win a Slam for the Brits. Fukk that. The only Slam where I THINK he'd have added pressure as a finalist would be Wimbledon. Let's face it, Djokovic didn't fare so well in the two Slam finals when he didn't get someone outside the Federer-Nadal regime. Murray's losses to Federer were massive and comprehensive in his two Slam finals. Tonight, we find out what he's learned. I THINK this match is much closer to even than the odds suggest, so the plus money on a player fully capable of winning is where I go tonight.
MURRAY +145
I've taken most of the day to read a lot of opinions on today's final. Most are much more impressed with Djokovic's run to the finals, but I THINK the Federer whipping really was his brightest moment as he rolled through inferior competition the entire way through. Berdych? This is not the same guy who was a major threat to the big boys middle of 2010 and he's always been a bad match-up against Djokovic. Djokovic was obviously the more consistent player against Federer, but Federer had been inconsistent in this tournament - with probably too many people coming away too impressed by his dismantling of Wawrinka. Wawrinka was outmatched and showed up scared. What I'm quite amazed by is that people don't look at the strategies that Murray applies in his matches more closely. They'll look at his match against Dolgopolov and wonder why he didn't blow the kid off the court. Well, neither did Robin Soderling. Dolgopolov is good, could be a bordeline stud on this surface if his head stays on straight. And then some will question how he played Ferrer. Perhaps content to engaging in rallies and "pushing the ball across the net." What's wrong with this? Murray knows Ferrer has no major weapons to hurt him. Ferrer's weapon is fitness and defense and Murray felt that he could force Ferrer to make errors in long rallies. He's not going to play Djokovic how he played Ferrer or how he played Dolgpolov or anyone else in this tournament. I don't THINK there is any question that he must be the aggressor. Engaging Djokovic in rallies and hoping for errors will prove to be a quick death with the way Djokovic is striking the ball. If he proves me wrong and isn't the strategist I THINK he is, than I'll get to go to sleep early. But, Murray knows Djokovic. Djokovic knows Murray. I THINK when Murray has been at his best on this surface, he's been aggressive. I give him a slight edge on-serve and despite improved fitness from the Serb, I THINK a longer match would favor Murray. For me, it is important for Murray to come out and not just compete early - but take it to Djokovic and work an early lead. Let Djokovic know it's going to be a long night. It was a very hot day in Melbourne today [97 F] and even though it will be about ten degrees cooler by match time, there will be lingering heat on that court which can sap some energy away easily for either player. Mental toughness will be huge here. Most don't think Murray has what it takes because of his failure in finals. Most THINK there is still too much pressure on him to win a Slam for the Brits. Fukk that. The only Slam where I THINK he'd have added pressure as a finalist would be Wimbledon. Let's face it, Djokovic didn't fare so well in the two Slam finals when he didn't get someone outside the Federer-Nadal regime. Murray's losses to Federer were massive and comprehensive in his two Slam finals. Tonight, we find out what he's learned. I THINK this match is much closer to even than the odds suggest, so the plus money on a player fully capable of winning is where I go tonight.
