EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

[EaglesPhan36]

New season, new thread. Always ideal to tread lightly early on since you have few ideas on form, etc. The thread as always is a think tank more so than tracking records. I'm going to try and get my picks on the SBR spread sheets, so if you feel like you need to know how I'm doing, it'll be there. Let's get wet.


BRISBANE [1.1.11]
I THINK I THINK you should have your head examined if you think about playing high chalk on Feliciano Lopez, especially in January and not in a Slam. Lopez is up against Petzschner in Brisbane. Looking at F.Lo's starts to season the past three years, he seems more interesting in grooming his hair than grooming his game. He's lost his first match of the year in four straight years in Sydney. Maybe that's why he's in Brisbane this year. Petzschner hasn't played since the US Open in August. He's nothing special really, but his style of play I THINK is not one that Lopez really likes playing. Petzschner likes to work the net, so if he forces F.Lo to make passing shots, I THINK I'd rather take a bite on the dog to start off 2011 than on a pretty Spanish girl-type.

[noober]

good luck. agree that laying juice on Lopez is crazy but this match is a no play for me. Did u se Kleybanova losing as a -1100 favorite

How do u like De Bakker over Istomin?

[Boner_18]

I like the PP pick. The German has some skills.

[EaglesPhan36]

I made myself a promise not to bet on Istomin in 2011 until I see him play for about a month. Guy was so up & down from set-to-set in the last few months ... I had a feeling that he could be my Jeremy Chardy this year. In that I mean a guy who seems poised to break through even higher in the rankings, but he could also be a chalk killing SOB like Chardy was. I really de Bakker, but he's still green. Think it could go either way.

[labrador]

Happy New Year! Good luck in the new season.

[shari91]

Best of luck EP! I think I'm going to hold off posting picks until the Aussie Open and just sit back and watch this week. I was on Hewitt/Molik last night and that match alone was enough to make me feel like a break is already in order.

Here's to an awesome 2011 in here and Happy New Year!!

[Boner_18]

LOL @ this years Jeremy Chardy.. If that is the case who will Jeremy Chardy be this year?

[brettels]

an even bigger LOL at know it alls simply not knowing it all, lopez, what a champ.

[EaglesPhan36]

LOL @ this years Jeremy Chardy.. If that is the case who will Jeremy Chardy be this year?

Good question. Interested to see how he does this year.

[EaglesPhan36]

Another guy I won't touch for the first month ... Dolgopolov. All that shady stuff last year makes him one to keep an eye on before you start backing or going against him.

[EaglesPhan36]

BRISBANE 1.2.11
I THINK I THINK I'm going with Kubot over Brands today. No grand insight, just a gut feeling and I generally don't trust Brands.

[labrador]

Hi EP, newbie's question: SBR Sportsbook does not offer tennis, is that correct? Thanks.

[EaglesPhan36]

Inaugural win for 2011, Kubot in EZ straights. Yay!

[EaglesPhan36]

Hi EP, newbie's question: SBR Sportsbook does not offer tennis, is that correct? Thanks.

It has tennis at-times. They take it from a "feed" which means they are dependent on this feed being up. You will find lines mostly for the Grand Slams, but they did have lines for lots of tournaments late in the season. Think it's a work in progress. Some day maybe they'll figure out a better way to do it.

[beefcake]

time to see if tomic can do his thing.. im going to say no

[beefcake]

Also, Vania King showed a big improvement last season as well. She is playing Fatty tonight, which is always a crapshoot with Lard Ass..

[labrador]

It has tennis at-times. They take it from a "feed" which means they are dependent on this feed being up. You will find lines mostly for the Grand Slams, but they did have lines for lots of tournaments late in the season. Think it's a work in progress. Some day maybe they'll figure out a better way to do it.

Thanks for your answer, EP. Congrats on the Kubot Win.

[EaglesPhan36]

time to see if tomic can do his thing.. im going to say no

Yeah I don't think much of Meyer, but Tomic hasn't proven worth anything yet.

[beefcake]

well cilic is still shite, and i guess simon must have partyied to hard, losing to giraldo?

[EaglesPhan36]

DOHA 1.3.11
I THINK I THINK Zverev is a total piece of crapola on hard courts. He's 16-34 over his last 50 matches and ended 2010 with injury problems. Plenty of time for recovery, but his form on the surface makes Marchenko a decent shot, I THINK. Marchenko has a serve that can be tough to crack when it's on. I THINK I'd rather ride that possibility than hoping that this is one of the tournaments where Zverev shows up.

[beefcake]

sign me up...im 0-3 picking sides this year..not a good start..

[beefcake]

Man, kevin paycheck must really need the cash to go play in New Caledonia..hell the plane ticket is going to be more than the payout.

[EaglesPhan36]

@ beefcake

One of our potential breakout guys is in the main draw in Brisbane tonight: Berankis -165 against Clement.

[beefcake]

yep and bubka just SMOKED traver...didnt see that coming..its matches like that that puts food on the table for the us bettors, the key is knowing when to find em.
yeah the Lith senasation needs to get it tonight..Scary though that his price has dropped all across the board, clement is a wiley veteran,not totally sold on berankis as such a heavy fav..Obviously other folks like him as much as us.
Wonder how far nishikori can go?

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I would only use Berankis in a parlay potentially. I thought about Bubka last night, but dismissed that thought pretty quickly.

[EaglesPhan36]

WTA AUCKLAND 1.3.11
I THINK I THINK it's time to bust my WTA cherry in 2011. I THINK that means I should apply for my lobotomy with the quickness as I look forward to multiple breaks of serve around every bend! Suarez-Navarro draws an inexperienced Italian, Oprandi who played one whole match on outdoor hard courts in 2010 and hasn't won a main draw outdoor hard court match since March 2007. CSN is still better suited to the dirt, but she's good enough to win in this spot. PARLAY the Spaniard with Cornet, I THINK. Cornet is almost a mirror image of CSN in that she is better on dirt, but has done a handful of decent things on outdoor hard courts, including a 2-1 mark at this tournament in 2010. She draws one of the Zahlavovas, Sandra if you're nasty. Zahlavova's got an above .500 record on the surface, but it's laced with ITF-level wins. Cornet is barely above .500 herself, but she should know this court better based on her experience and she's been a quick starter in Australia two years straight. +126 for the parlay play, if you THINK you can handle the Maalox moments. Both start at 5pm ET.

[beefcake]

Bring on the pepto with this one!

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding my spreadsheet sporadically to the thread for people who obsess over records and +/- units.

[beefcake]

I thought about placing a dabble on Mchale..Vinci is a wiley veteran and played well the end of last year getting to the final of Lux, but still is just .500 career on hard..over +200 seems a bit underpriced on the young american.

[EaglesPhan36]

That is still a potential play for me this evening. Vinci is a polished turd. McHale is an up & comer, I THINK. She has the plus of playing qualis, even though she lost her last match. Interesting to note she started last year on clay, this year on hard courts. Experience is really the only thing working against here.

Ah the breaks have already started in the wrong direction, superb.

[EaglesPhan36]

1st tournament and the scoreboards for the WTA/ATP already have issues.

[EaglesPhan36]

Feels good to lose that first WTA match. Cornet was awful. Too bad since Suarez-Navarro won. Nexxxt!

[EaglesPhan36]

Oh my! Super choke. Zahlavova blew a 5-2 lead in the 2nd, Cornet rolling in the 3rd.


BRISBANE 1.3.11
I THINK I THINK FISH + ANDERSON parlay. +116. Fish wants the Top 10, gotta beat the Mannarinos. Anderson over Granollers. If the Big Stick is going to prove that his 2010 surge was not an apparition, he needs to beat someone like Granollers who is not at his best on this surface. I THINK Fish's wife is still HOT, well I KNOW.

[beefcake]

Oh my! Super choke. Zahlavova blew a 5-2 lead in the 2nd, Cornet rolling in the 3rd.


BRISBANE 1.3.11
I THINK I THINK FISH + ANDERSON parlay. +116. Fish wants the Top 10, gotta beat the Mannarinos. Anderson over Granollers. If the Big Stick is going to prove that his 2010 surge was not an apparition, he needs to beat someone like Granollers who is not at his best on this surface. I THINK Fish's wife is still HOT, well I KNOW.

Nice! Just back from target and I told my wife the bet was toast, but she said " Come on man, its WTA tennis!" How right she was!
Mchale giving it her all in the 2nd...Maybe vinci pulls a Zahlavova...??
Lets get the fih/anderson parlay!

[EaglesPhan36]

Shit. Granollers withdrew apparently, so it goes to being a straight play on Fish now with one unit yielding a monster .28 profit if Fish wins.