The way Soderling has served this week, Roddick's best chances would be in a tie break. If he can get to at least one tie break, he might have a shot ... but yeah if I was playing it, Soderling would be my choice - anything at -160 or less.
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WTA SYDNEY 1.9.11
I THINK I THINK that Nadia Petrova is a fade for me to start this experience. She's lost four successive years at this event in the 1st round and it hasn't been to superior talent. She faces Strycova who is not the best on this hard surface, but she rolled through qualis and gained some confidence on this surface last week with a few wins in Brisbane. Don't know that she will step up and pull off the upset against Petrova, but I THINK at +4.5, I'll take Strycova on the handicap.
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How funny - I literally just took her at +190 and then saw your post. Best of luck EP!
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Sweet. Let's hope our brains are sharing GOOD knowledge this year.
How about a thoroughly unbettable match ... Andreev vs. Chardy. I'd seriously rather burn a $20 bill.Comment -
I actually threw Andreev in a parlay accidentally yesterday. I almost puked when I saw my mistake. Luckily for me he notched up his one win for me in 2011. Never again.Comment -
Something tells me Venus is going to play really well tonight. Maybe not enough to win, but robredo hasnt played since stockholm. Cna you say rusty?Comment -
I THINK the total of the night for me is around our old friend, Jankovic in Sydney. She's facing Rezai. Jankovic has that great knack for f-ing around and making matches last much longer than they ever need to. Rezai is certainly a capable opponent who I THINK has a legit shot to win. JJ was a mess for most of last year, so she'll be looking for a strong start, but I THINK Rezai is competitive enough to get this OVER done. Set at 21.Comment -
Riding with you guys on Strycova..Comment -
Super excited to see DelPo back! Hope he has a healthy 2011.Comment -
Early break for venus! Here we go!Comment -
Consolidated that break!Comment -
And one more, I THINK on principle. Going against our little wonder suck, Melanie Oudin. Oudin is -150 against Zakopalova at the Hobart tournament. Why? Name. Oudin did nothing to inspire confidence at all in 2010. Zakopalova showed some ability on this surface late in 2010, making a final in Seoul. Oudin played in Hong Kong some and won a match, but also choked hard against Kirilenko in another - after winning the 1st set 7-6 and being up a break, she lost the second set and got bageled. To me, she's still mentally not the strongest when things start going wrong. No way little Moo-udin is worthy of being this price at this stage, so I THINK I shall have a shot against her until she proves she can be a consistent player again.Comment -
Arvidsson looks good to go today against Molik. I watched Molik play all her games last week at the Hopman Cup and her form is a far cry from perfection at the moment. Ardvidsson -4Comment -
Also Bethanie Mattek-Sands vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova intrigues me a little Mattek-Sands was in good form last week but played a singles and doubles match on friday and another singles and doubles match on saturday. Surely this must take its toll on a player. I like Pavlyuchenkova minus the -3.5 in this one.Comment -
Zakopalova, Strycova = bank baby.
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Very good call on Zakopalova and Strycova!
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I wish I would have seen this thread before adding Nadia in my parlay......
Will be watching this thread carefully.Comment -
Bad call on Arvidsson
. Sorry for laying an egg in your thread.
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Nice call on Strycova EP... managed to recoup my losses on Becker earlier in the day
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EP, Lu looks like a a solid dog here. What exactly has Simon done as of late? His price is way off for the form he is in at the moment. Lu is very capable on this surface. If it was indoors I would say Simon all the way, but outside I think the Taiwan #1 can take him.Comment -
1.10.11: DEUCE #1
I THINK I THINK the best place to start when looking at the DEUCE for parlay purposes is Kevin Anderson. Anderson is in Auckland against Hanescu. Anderson was solid in his play last week in Brisbane and holds a weapons advantage over Hanescu on this surface. Hanescu showed that he can be tough for a set against Gulbis last week, but lost in straights. On this surface, he's a sub-par performer. If Anderson brings that big 1st serve with consistency, I like him to advance. Pair him up with Garcia-Lopez. GGL looked solid in Doha, making the QFs. Guccione made it through qualis in Sydney, but he hasn't won a main level ATP match since the middle of 2009. He's got a big serve, but little else. If GGL can hold his nerve and match him on-serve, I THINK he will move on. Pair them at +108.
I THINK betting a Dolgopolov match is tricky, but I THINK I like Tomic quite a bit in Sydney today. He's rolled through qualifying against some legit competition, beating Kubot, Berrer and Kunitsyn in straights. He's worked a consistent serve in all three of those matches, but will need to get his 1st serve in more regularly. Dolgopolov is still green on this surface as well. He did beat Tomic last year in Brisbane 6-4, 6-4 but that was a first-up match for Tomic in 2010. Trying the youngster at +155 to gain a bit of revenge.
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Anderson
Way to blow it thin mint.Comment -
Man, I hate days like this. Had a hunch that Cibulkova would play well, didnt play it. Liked Marrarino and passed. And Lu and Tomic thankfully have a break to think how crappy they played. Tomic better get his head out of his ass.Comment -
Yeah I was excited to wake up today and see they never resumed play. The break can't do any worse for those guys. Hopefully Dolgopolov gets his mob call today to throw the rest of the match.
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1.11.11: DEUCE #1
I THINK I THINK when looking at possibilities for the DEUCE today, I THINK starting with Gasquet is recommended. He's always been solid at the Sydney tournament, making the semis or better in three of the last four years. Gasquet rolled Ebden in his opener, looking as if he had shaken off the effects of blowing a match to Phau last week. His serve was crisp and will need to be again against Seppi. The Italian upset Istomin in easy fashion, more a reflection on Istomin to me. Seppi is still barely around .500 on outdoor hard courts and is only about 40% in his last 50 on the surface. In his last 22 outdoor hard court tournaments, Seppi has only advanced past the 2nd round once. I'll pair him with Robredo who draws Bellucci. Bellucci again showed me yesterday why I won't back him on this surface. He drew a miracle comeback in the 3rd from down 0-3 to win against Russell. Of course, he was in control in the 2nd set to put him away before he imploded. He lacks consistency to me, something Robredo is better at. The Spaniard struggled in his opening set against the qualifier Venus yesterday, but then got it together and smashed him the next two sets. His serve was almost unbreakable. Robredo often gets lumped into the group as a "clay specialist" but he has proven worthwhile against this sort of inexperienced opponent on this surface. Parlay at +157.
AUSTRALIAN OPEN QUALIS
Take a look at Ciric at +170 against the American, Ryan Sweeting. I THINK this is a good situation for the Serb to scalp himself a win. Sweeting withdrew from Auckland qualis THIS week with a hamstring issue. Not sure about the extent of the injury, but it's a quick turnaround as this injury situation occurred just a day ago. I THINK if you have a book that takes first ball or first set betting in case of retirement, perhaps this will work. Even at 100%, Ciric might pose a risk to Sweeting. The Serb has shown his best results on clay, but last time in Doha qualis although falling in the final qualifying round, he showed a wicked serve that should suit him well on the harder surface. If he pumps in some aces and Sweeting is less than 100%, I THINK this has a shot.
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Of course nice write up as usual. Was looking at the match ups and Del Potro looks like a steal at -165 vs mayer. Also montanes with plenty of motivation to defend points here. Giraldo has been hot an the price reflects it. But I like him here in the dog role.Stakhovsky at +170 is another dog that looks good at first glance.Comment -
I can't take DelPo until he plays a handful of matches. He struggled to get it done in the opener. He should beat Mayer, but that F-er has a bad point of scoring untimely wins when you think he's going to get rolled. Dogs I thought had a shot today include Granollers over Kohlschreiber, Stakhovsky & maybe Hanescu simply because it's first-up for Almagro. Only position I'd ever hang money on that spitting loser is as a dog. He should have lost to Anderson yesterday though, but the Big Thin F choked after breaking to go up 3-2 in the 3rd.Comment -
No thanks I will pass on the spitter. As far as the women, Cibulkova as a slight fav peaks my interest. And whatever happened to Li NA? And Kevin Paycheck is playing Niland.
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Yeah I looked at Kim. I wound up not liking that match at all. Only troublesome thing about Cibulkova is the letdown factor of beating #1. She was a hot pick last year to move up the WTA ladder, a good showing here early and she might be Top 10 material soon.
Forgot Kubot on the list of dogs, probably the one I liked best.Comment -
Robredo 21% on 2nd serves. Yum. Down a set. Today's DEUCE could be dead before it even starts. Still like Gasquet a lot, might need to find another putz to pair with him if Robredo doesn't turn it around.Comment -
I don't think, I know Robredo sucks. Get on Youzhny for money back.Comment -
I´m on Robredo as well, probably for too much given his stats. Up a break now in the 2nd though and just consolidated... if he can get to the third i might lay some of him off as he´s offering up too many break ops for my liking.Comment -
Bellucci showing the inconsistency. At least a 3rd set is coming hopefully.Comment -
Oh well, another parlay killed early as Robredo punks out quick in the 3rd. Gonna see how this next batch goes before deciding on anything else. GL tonight.Comment
