good luck w/ the picks.
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Millot +1075
Melzer made the big surge last year close to the top ten somewhat reminiscent of the push Gilles Simon made the year before. This isn't his best surface although he is adequate on it. Still, Millot is a little lefty who will use his speed to try and put the ball back in play a lot. Millot won't be short on confidence as he won a hard court Challenger to start the year and ran through qualis fairly simply. This is his first Slam, so nerves will be his biggest opponent early. If he can settle in early and stay competitive, stranger things have happened. This is a stupid, silly play, but sometimes you go with your balls.
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Looks like my gut should have met my balls and squeezed real hard when I picked Ebden over Russell after originally going the other way. What an error fest. 36 in two sets. Oh well maybe it'll go like last night, get the loss out of the way and then win. Waiting for Millot to lose 6-0, 6-0, 6-0.
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Well well well. Let's see if Uncle Mo has hit Margaret Court Arena ... down 1-4, Ebden just won the 3rd set 7-5. Surely has the crowd with him now, but still a long road to hoe.Comment -
As i said at Shari thread kid got much of talent but no brain. Very funny thing Kimiko with serve broke Agneszka racquet. ahahaha
Congrats Aga!
P.s he should be very happy because he play with Russel.Comment -
Ebden had 2 SP's, then gets broken
Ouch.Comment -
Knew it was false hope when he rallied. Hate when these F-ers do that and then blow it. Fought well, but he should have put Russell away in the 4th set a couple times and f-ed up without holding his serve after breaking Russell.Comment -
he f'ed up big time there in the 4thComment -
DEUCE #2
I THINK I THINK there is an option for another DEUCE tonight. I start with the veteran Gilles Muller who battles Simon Stadler. Muller has the experience edge here as Stadler has just four matches in Grand Slam main draws, all at Wimbledon. On this surface, Muller's big serve should be a decisive factor. Both guys came through qualis in good shape, but Stadler played a roster of nobodies. So long as Muller can pump that serve in, I THINK he will take care of Stadler fairly routinely. Pair with Gulbis. Yes, the Latvian Loser. This is the kind of match I can back Gulbis in as he takes on fellow meathead Benjamin Becker. Both have games better suited to this hard court surface, but Gulbis I THINK has the edge with a better and more consistent serve if it's brought from Jump Street. Both have poor records here, Gulbis at 1-4 and Becker at 1-3. Gulbis at least has some form on hard courts in 2011 at 4-2. Becker is barely around 50% on this surface with a 1-2 mark this season. Gulbis is on a losing streak at Slams with five straight losses and first round exits. Becker isn't much better. I guess I haven't had a gut wrenching match under my belt yet and perhaps that is why I THINK Gulbis is a good wager here. Parlay at +113.
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Guess these parlays technically begin Terrible Tuesday for me. 1-8 or something I think on the first two Tuesdays of this season. Make sure you fade me good if I make picks later today ... I am turrubull.Comment -
Did anyone think Baghdatis would have trouble with Zemlja? He's down a set. I have a good feeling Baggy bags here.Comment -
He had the leg injury coming into it, now surprising he would start slow I think. He should win. Well evening out after an okay start on Day 1, crap day 2 - so hopefully we rebound on day 3. Think I was doomed from the get-go when I originally had Russell and then switched my mind. Of course a lot of others I liked, but did not play sucked any way so I guess just not a good eye today. Always tomorrow. Raonic needs to get it done.Comment -
Baghdatis seems to have comeback nicely in this match. Your right. he should win. Don't sweat the bad day. Everyone has them EP Just keep grinding and you'll get it back soon. Good luck on tomorrow's plays.Comment -
Bad luck on the Deuce EP - i had paired Ivanovic with Muller in my parlay which met with a similar demise. I have a rule never to put Ivanovic in a parlay but something just came over me. Never again! Lets hope for better luck on day 3
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Yeah my stupidity last night was I was looking for a 2nd match that was starting close to Muller's instead of going with the one I liked - Berankis. Dumb dumb dumb by me. We'll see how I do today. Tuesdays have not been kind thus far.Comment -
- Damn Ivanovic, cost me lots of money, same with Davydenko the other day, thinking of taking Richard Gasquet and Viktor Troicki parlay, Verdasco and Berdych look promising,too. What do you think Eagles?
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Man watch out for Marrinero guy, he has been playing real well here in '11 so far..Comment -
Gasquet is a class above Mannarino IMO. Not that Gasquet is immune to a good choke job, but I don't think he loses if he brings his A or B+ game.Comment -
What do you think about nishi or Dmitrov?Comment -
Considering Nishikori. Don't trust Mayer and I think the DONKEY was pretty poor against him. Dimitrov is going to be interesting. He's been compared to Federer who he claims is his idol. If so, shouldn't he win? Fed is 7-1 vs. WaWa.
He's been dubbed as the next big thing for a couple years. If he's going to be that, he needs a breakthrough win at a Slam. This would be a nice spot, not sure though. Thinking.Comment -
EP- can you please talk me out of a play on Verdasco? He´s in pretty average form right now - had a string of first round exits towards the tailend of last year, yet I know he has all the weapons to dominate almost any player. Odds look juicy, Tipsy´s a tricky player as well, but I have a feeling he´s up for the Aussie and will make similar deepish runs to the previous two years.
Any thoughts??Comment -
Somehow I got logged out of SBR when doing my write-ups, so they got erased. Condensed versions as a result.
1.18.11 AUSTRALIAN OPEN
DEUCE
Start with Malisse. He's in excellent form to start of 2011, making the Chennai final and he was solid in his opener. Draws Montanes who almost choked a 2-0 lead to Dustin Brown. He's shown again why he is not a consistently good performer on outdoor hard courts. If Malisse gets his serve in [1st especially] then the match is his for the taking, I THINK. Pair with Gasquet. The Gasman draws fellow French fukk Mannarino who has talent on this surface to be certain, but I don't think any weapons that will scare Gasquet. Gasquet is 8-2 in his last ten vs. fellow Frenchies, losing only to Monfils and Simon. Experience edge in Slams as well. Parlay at -132.
MARINO +285/+5 [-114]
Handicap and moneyline try on the young Canadian. She draws injured Schiavone who battled through a three set affair to get here. Schiavone has nursed this groin injury since the Hopman Cup. In two matches since then, she's struggled some to be consistent - going three sets in both. Marino brings potential power from her serve and forehand, but as with most of the ladies - struggles with consistency sometimes. She won't be overwhelmed here as she gave Venus Williams a very solid match in last year's US Open in the 2nd round. Don't know if she has enough for the upset, but I think at worst she can cover the handicap here and wipe out break evens on these two bets.
NISHIKORI +177
He's paired up with Brad Gilbert as his coach this year and it looks like he's taking well to BG's advice. Kei was formerly known a lot for making jumping or leaping forehands and backhands. BG has him now trying to be more grounded, which obviously keeps him in better position for the next ball in rallies. He draws Mayer who scored "the upset" over Davydenko. The stats don't yield that he particularly dominated the match, but he advanced. Mayer sometimes can pump in a big serve, but the weather conditions and his own inconsistency may help negate that again some today. Keys for Kei - take advantage of the break opps you get and protect your own serve as best as possible. His serve is not a weapon in his arsenal, but it's something that he can use better to stay in matches, I THINK. Both guys played around three hours in their openers, so no edge on fatigue but I think Nishikori would do well to implant it in Mayer's mind early that it's going to be a long day at the office.
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Tipsy is 11-18 against lefties I think, there's one thing for you. Bad thing is he just beat a lefty, so playing Verdasco won't be awkward. Key for Verdasco would be starting fast. Saw a stat somewhere on Tipsarevic's record after losing the 1st set and it's hideously bad like 27-111. I think the prices are set right where they are to suck people in who like either side and you can make a case for either guy really. Lots of people will probably be on Tipsarevic as a dog because they remember him beating Roddick at the US Open. Looking at his overall body of work though on hard courts, I think Verdasco has an edge slightly here. Not one I care to bet though.Comment -
Thanks for the advice EP - i´ve decided to put him into a small-ball parlay. Great post and summary above as always - thinking about Marino too, might jump in in-play depending on how the odds go.Comment -
Good start for the Kei-master. Got the 1st set.Comment -
2-0 Kei-master. Let's close this shit.Comment -
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BAGEL???
I think Nishi has the over and +200Comment -
Nice pick on NIshi.. looks like he´s going to get your tuesday off to a cracker start: )
Verdasco´s proving me a fool with that first set rout. Hoping he can pull it back but the fool´s looking a little bit bluddy lost out there!!!Comment -
The Kei-master wins it in 4! Always nice to start the night knowing you won't go 0-fer. Think Gasquet is starting next in line for my betting purposes.Comment -
Looking good so far this year man. Keep up the chedder bo better my netter! YEAH!Comment -
Gasquet with no problems in straights over Mannarino. Malisse underway and up a break on Montanes. Let's complete the DEUCE!Comment -
Malisse rolling to a straight sets win. EZ cash on the DEUCE today if he can close it out. Montanes looks lost. Looks like Marino is going to wind up costing me a little back, but the Nishikori win will help make a small profit today. Probably gonna make a small play on Dimitrov just because I'd kick myself if I didn't. Hopefully Wawrinka shows up in lazy mode today.Comment -
Break to Marino. If she can consolidate and win this 2nd set .... who the hell knows. Let's go floppy headed Cananadians.Comment -
Ah youth. Marino giving shit right back and now down a break. Probably gonna lose 6-3, 6-3 to not even push the handicap.
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