Schoorel wearing down perhaps, 6-3 Dimitrov wins the 2nd. 3rd set!v Raonic breaks Martin in the 3rd, quick 180 on the DEUCE now. Let's go F-ers.
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Class comes through in the 3rd as both Raonic & Dimitrov roll to victory and the field of 128! Be interesting to see where both match-up in the 1st round ... both very capable of winning in the 1st round depending on their opponent. Falconi off to a solid start, up 4-1 in the 1st.
Grrrrrrr!
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Unbelievable tipping right now EP, you´re on fire!! Many thanks for the 1st round summaries and qualie tips.. absolute quality. GL with the rest of the Open!Comment -
Nice EP!!!
Followed and cashed!!
Raonic for sure on my radar for round 1Comment -
Raonic needs to play a fellow meathead I think to have a good shot to win. Anyone who just wants to bash the ball, he can stick with. If he plays a good defender and someone who engages him in rallies, he'll have troubles. Dimitrov I think can play with any type of player. I looked at the opening for the qualifiers and I think most of the match-ups I saw - these two will have a chance. There is also a quali vs. quali 1st rounder waiting to be filled. Not sure again how they are filled, but will be anxious to see where they wind up.
The two young guys I want to see all year long are Dimitrov and Berankis. Those two are going to be very good, very soon I think.Comment -
This Falconi match is a reminder why I generally prefer doing more ATP bets. Falconi blows a 4-1 lead, go does 4-1 in the tie break and wins it 8-6. Roller coaster of loathe.Comment -
Falconi 5-1 up in the second, and serving at 40-40... if BF had any liquidity on this game i´d be laying my ass off.
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She did it harder than needed, but a win is a win. Time to go finalize the futures.Comment -
Hey Ep, can you check this thread and give me your opinion on the spreadsheet?
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EP, what do you think of Dimitrov again tonight over Golubev?? Golubev in poor vein of form right now, plus not really suited to the hard courts. Dimitrov big three setter yesterday, so could start tiring as it was his third game in three days. Still, I think I like Dimitrov tonight.. hope you agree: )Comment -
Ep, I think denko might go down to Mayer, the way he is playing at the moment. And people are betting on the donkey right now..
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Davydenko will be boom or bust I think in Melbourne. I think he makes a deep run if he can survive early. Their last match-up was pretty lopsided for Davydenko last October. Mayer has to serve extremely well I think to keep it competitive.Comment -
1.16.11 AUSTRALIAN OPEN
KULIKOVA +140
The Russian draws Hantuchova and many people are probably saying Hantuchova at -160? Sign me up! Not so fast. Hantuchova pulled out of the Brisbane event a few weeks back with a partially torn achilles tendon. I'm no doctor, but any tear in a tendon is not a good thing, I THINK. She played in Sydney with the injury and lost in straights, looking pretty poor. Kulikova has shown some ability on this surface in the past, albeit you have to go back to the earlier parts of 2010 to see it. She played a tight three setter in the main draw last year, losing to Strycova after two great tie breaks in the 1st two sets. In Dubai, she knocked off Kirlenko and Kuznetsova before losing to Radwanska. She has main draw Grand Slam experience, so the moment shouldn't be too much for her. Should know early if the injury is going to continue to bother Hantuchova, I'll take the shot that I THINK it will.
HARRISON-MANNARINO OVER 39 [-118]
This has the potential to be a very competitive and entertaining match. Harrison, the young American, had a fairly poor 2010 season until he broke out with an upset at the US Open in the 1st round against Ljubicic and nearly beat Stakhovsky in the 2nd round. He wound up finishing strong in 2010 and showed decently in Brisbane qualis before falling predictably to Soderling in the 1st round. Mannarino was a regular winner during the Summer of 2010 on hard courts on the Challenger level with one title and four finals appearances. Both were routinely dismissed in their debut Aussie Open matches in 2010 in straight sets and will be eager to notch that first win in Melbourne. Mannarino carries the slightly better form in with his performance in Auckland that saw him make the QFs, but he beat the B-list of has-beens in Clement and Monaco before falling short in three to Spare Tire, Nicolas Almagro. Neither sports a serve that is entirely dominant although Harrison's can be if it remains consistent, so you can expect some breaks here. I would not be shocked to see Harrison win here as I think he might be the better talent, but perhaps lacks the overall consistency to win best of fives consistently right now at Slams. I THINK this will at worst be a four set match because I don't see either dominating the other for a straight sets win and this potentially could be a five set grinder.
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Will likely have another play or two for the later matches, but wanted to get these up before I go out for a bit as I might not be back before the openers start tonight. Good luck with your selections, stay consistent with your wager size and don't get down if you don't start hot out of the gates ... Slams rarely allow for that.
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Hope you made that WTA bet at a 1 set book to account for that achilles retirement!Comment -
5Dimes beefster, always consider those retirements. My luck she's super human and kills this girl - but I THINK it's worth a shot. See you guys tonight for the action, cannot f-ing wait!Comment -
Good luck the next two weeks. These Slams are always so cool. Got my future in on Soda and Li!Comment -
DIMITROV -110
One of the youngsters to watch on tour this season. Dimitrov gets his shot at getting the first of what should be many Grand Slam wins today against Golubev. Dimitrov worked through qualis this week without dropping service and took on a variety of different playing styles. That should prove useful. He's proven to be solid on this surface on the Challenger level in the past year with a couple of titles late in 2010. Golubev used the Hopman Cup as his tune-up and looked poor on the indoor surface, dropping all three of his matches. He's around a 50% winner on the outdoor surface. He scored a modest upset of Fish at last year's Aussie Open, but that was before Fish really caught fire. He has just a smidge more experience than Dimitrov who some have affectionately dubbed "The GOAT" not for the animal, but for the moniker Greatest of All Times - showing the lofty expectations this 19-year old carries. If Dimitrov takes advantage of the break opps he's given as he did through qualis [coverted over 50%] - look for the youngster to score his first Slam win. He's got the court-time in this week, the court sense and shouldn't be afraid of the best of five format having played Davis Cup matches as well.
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Typical..Kulikova blows the break but wins in tiebreak!Comment -
Harrison played like an absolute twat. Over never had a chance.Comment -
Beef, looks like your call on Mayer over the Donkey is gonna be money. Hope you played it!Comment -
Donkey falls. Fish flies! Great courage by Fish. Have to look for fades possibly of Kubot & Fish. Both expended a lot today.Comment -
Dimitrov dominated in straights. Kulikova FINALLY won in 3. Will take that start. CU tomorrow!Comment -
you do nice work EP,
and I love your avatar
good luck tomorrow
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Yep I played Mayer!Comment -
Noooice!
#1 suggestion for today: Don't bet on Tomic vs. Chardy if you value your sanity.
Cilic is going to be another one to seriously consider as a no-bet for all you chalk parlay players. I Don't know if I'd trust Donald Young to knock him off, but Cilic has been very poor since last year. Sucks that the best match of the night I won't see [Nalbandian-Hewitt] because it will be middle of the night in the USA.Comment -
'value your sanity'
Thanx for the tips EP!Comment -
I see lots of early action on Raonic..(Im part of it)..Also how bout these american women as slight dogs..Maybe a coco/Mchale 2 teamer.Comment -
Wish I had seen your Kulikova pick earlier !
Good luck with your plays and nice write ups btw
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EP, if we valued our sanity we wouldn't be betting this sport at all.
And what are you - 85?!?! Pull an all-nighter and watch the match. It'll be a great one!
Beefy, I jumped on McHale yesterday not realizing she played today. I got her at +125 so I'm hoping by the time I log on tomorrow her price has dropped nicely.
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If I didn't have to work, I would probably stay up and watch ... besides when I get all amped up on how good a match is going to be, often very disappointing at the actual outcome. I might record it and watch it during the day.
Good luck with McHale, can't say I like that one a ton. I bet on her last year and she folded against Jessica Moore in that epic 3rd set ... I'll never forget her cramping issues in that one. I think she has a shot, but Navarro is one of those crafty f-ers who wins even when she shouldn't.Comment -
1.17.11 AUSTRALIAN OPEN
EBDEN -115
This line has moved some as Ebden was the firm favorite when it opened, but Russell has now come into some support. When I began breaking this down, I THINK I was going most definitely with Russell. But the more I look at this, I THINK Ebden is where the money goes tonight. Talented? Yes. Experienced? Not so much at this level. This is his second trip into the main draw in Melbourne. Last year, he earned it through qualis and played well enough, losing 6-4 in all three sets to Monfils. This year, he's in as a wildcard. His 2011 has been pretty decent with a QF appearance in Brisbane. His lone highlight win in that stretch would be beating Istomin who looks a bit lost though this year. On this surface, Ebden isn't one of those power slugs who is going to dominate with his serve although it can be quite effective. He is a guy who can run around and cover the court and returns well. He also isn't afraid to come to the net and be aggressive. Russell is your prototypical grizzled vet at 32. He's often described as a bulldog on the court because he's tenacious and loves to run down shots and put the ball back in play. Russell's 2011 campaign has been much like his career, up & down. He's capable of taking down a younger, less experienced player, but still there's a reason Russell is just 5-19 lifetime at Slams. He's only made it past the 1st round in three of the 21 Slams he's appeared in and I THINK he's 1-11 at the two hard court Slams. I THINK I like what I have heard from Ebden in that his sole purpose for training in the offseason was to do well at the Australian events. As he said, Aussie fans don't just want to see Aussies playing at this event, they want them to win. If Ebden can hold his serve effectively, I THINK he has a legitimate shot to win here today as Russell can be had on his own serve at times.
DEUCE #1
Coupling a pair of heavy hitters today for the DEUCE. I THINK when beginning to look at today's possibilities, my first stop was John Isner. He draws Serra. No secrets here, Isner will pound his serve and try to dominate that way. Serra doesn't have the return game on this surface I THINK to both him too much if the serve is cranking. Serra is crafty though, so it might not be a total walk in the park - but Isner has looked fairly solid early in 2011. Pair him with Raonic. He draws Phau who is another veteran who likes to use his speed and court coverage. He also owns a miserable Slam record though and has lost his last seven main draw matches. Raonic has the power serve that can dominate the return skills if it's pumping in consistently on the 1st try. This is his 2nd main draw, having lost at the US Open last summer in the first round. Hopefully the US Open busted his nerves at Slams. If Raonic holds serve and nerve, I THINK he gets it done. Parlay at +107.
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i like ebden but line movement is turning me offComment -
AUSTRALIAN OPEN FUTURES
Alright I waited until the first day was done to see where some money might go from people jumping off and on players. Here's my final plays.
SODERLING WINS HIS QUARTER +225
For me, this is more realistic than Soderling winning the entire thing. He hasn't fared well in Melbourne previously, but his draw this year is as good as any he could possibly have. If he can carry his early season form, his first challenge will be in the 4th round against Tsonga likely. Soderling has Tsonga's number which would leave him to try and beat Andy Murray for a semifinal birth if the bracket holds. Tough, but not out of the world of possibilities.
HENIN +550
Not the easiest draw when you have the #1 seed standing in your way. However, the bottom portion where Henin starts is survivable. Kuznetsova could be the toughest test on her way to a possible QF. Henin has dominated her. She can beat Wozniacki.
AZARENKA +1500
I know I may be alone in backing Azarenka here, but several reason I can fathom her having a shot. Her quarter is wide open. Down with her, Na Li is going to be a popular pick to make the QFs. That is the only road block I see and Azarenka dominated her last summer. Venus Williams or Sharapova maybe up top to keep her from a semifinal, but no SERENA who has ousted her three straight Aussie Opens. She's progressed a step further each of the last three years, semis would be the next step this year and then anything is possible.
KLEYBANOVA +7000
She's in Clijsters' draw which most will eliminate her from contention right away. However, her portion of the quarter is soft and there for the taking. The Russian has yet to show up at a Slam, but showed again in Sydney that her game can win on this surface. I think she may at least have a shot to get to the QFs here, likely against Clijsters whom she just faced and lost to in a 3rd set tie break. Lessons learned? Maybe, maybe not.
One unit on Soderling. Half a unit each on the three ladies.
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Nice writeups EP Appreciate the effort put forth by you in this thread. Keep it up.
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