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Hadn't posted an updated spreadsheet pic in awhile. Plus units, 50% record. You can tell where Tuesday landed on the spreadsheet, find both losing streaks.
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SIMON [-139]
I think this is a good match-up for Simon against the exact kind of player he can frustrate in Gulbis. Gulbis likes to serve big and hit big, but against Simon he will be forced into rallies if everything is working for the Frenchman and that is where Simon should be able to force him into some errors. Simon seems to have found his rhythym this week after last week's debacle in Brisbane against Giraldo to open his season. This week, he hasn't dropped a set and got a little whiff of a Gulbis-like player in Dolgopolov last match. Simon has only dropped two break points this week and has converted 12/23 from his opponents. Gulbis has served okay this week, but there was a major drop off in production from the Andreev match to the Stakhovsky match with 17 aces down to just three. I THINK mistakes will be the undoing of Gulbis.
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Good call on the parlay man!Comment -
Paycheck is a live dog tonight ..Veteran Savvy..
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F-ing Koalas. Too much rain and delay for me.Comment -
This is why I love Gulbis. Up 5-4 in the 1st, he loses his service game at love and then gets rolled in the tie break 7-1. Just lost his opening service game for the 2nd set at love. No patience whatsoever, Go Simon!Comment -
Very inpressive call on Simon! Good write up too.
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TROICKI 2-0 & 2-1 [+142/+302]
Mayer hasn't had the big popping serve and that often predicates trouble for him. Troicki has been solid again this week. If he maintains his serve, I THINK Mayer is going to wind up getting rolled up quickly in straight sets. Not impressed with Mayer's wins so far this year. Won't overpay for Troicki straight up, so going for the straight bets on the fixed results outcomes. Half a unit on each. If he wins, profit is taken. If he chokes, just a one unit loss vs. taking almost two units on his money line price.
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7-6, 6-0 Simon. That is definitely the Gulbis I know and loathe.Comment -
Hit Troicki 2-0 for the smaller profit.Comment -
LMAO I was at the game LIVE and watched Gulbis buckle and literally mangled his racket after throwing is hard on the court! He was playing so well and dominating Gulbis and all of a sudden Gulbis TILTED serving for the 1st set! Oh it was soooo goooD because I was on the man Simon! So calm and collected the played a simple game forcing mistakes! SEX!
P.S Troicki has been very very impressive this tourney, he is set for a win in the final!Comment -
Li baby!!!Comment -
Just my two cents after looking over the draw. Like to put it down in writing to consult as the Slam moves on.
AUSTRALIAN OPEN MEN'S DRAW
NADAL QUARTER
Rafa should have a clean route to the Round of 16 assuming he is over the virus that drained him in Doha. The bottom portion of the bracket has a lot of talent. Youzhny, Ferrer, Nalbandian and some young ones like Kevin Anderson and Berankis who could make a little noise. Once again treated to a big time first round match with Hewitt. This time vs. Nalbandian. Shame that one of them loses early. This really looks like Rafa's to take without a doubt. I think Nalbandian would provide the stiffest test, but in a best of five - not sure Nalbandian is up to the challenge. Ferrer is one to watch here because of his return game. His Round of 32 match could be Nalbandian or Hewitt. If he gets past that, he could make some noise.
PICK: NADAL
DARKHORSE: FERRER
SODERLING QUARTER
Could be a tasty round of 16 match with Soderling & Tsonga if the bracket holds. Soderling should have little problem getting there - but his track record here flat out sucks. This though could be his year to break through as he comes in healthy and in good form. Tsonga's road is tougher with Gulbis, Dolgopolov and Becker looming in the round of 32. Still think Tsonga is more consistent at this level than those guys though. Soderling has owned Tsonga in their careers, expect him in the QFs. On bottom, Murray is the seed. Some interesting floaters though in Baghdatis & Del Potro. Melzer is seeded on the top part of this bracket. Don't see Murray with any hassles until the Round of 16. DelPo vs. Baggy could be a 2nd round cracker. Have to side with the new fitness of Baghdatis against Del Potro who still looks to be not 100%. One to watch here is Melzer. He's got a decent draw and if Del Potro and Baghdatis go to war in the 2nd round, he could be there to pick up the pieces against a tired winner in the 3rd.
PICK: SODERLING
DARKHORSE: MELZER
DJOKOVIC QUARTER
Djokovic is really under the radar heading into this as most of the chatter is of Federer, Nadal and others. His draw has a land mine or two, but is workable. Karlovic potentially in the 2nd and Troicki or Ljubicic in the 4th. Best thing for Djokovic could be the weather which may not factor in heat-wise as it has before. Up top, it's Berdych and whole host of tough guys. Kohlschreiber, Gasquet, Davydenko & Verdasco in easily the toughest portion of any draw in Melbourne. I thnk Davydenko might be one who sneaks through here. He's got easier early matches than the others here. I think Djokovic could be in good shape if he gets to the QFs to pick apart what could be a worn out other quarterfinalist.
PICK: DJOKOVIC
DARKHORSE: DAVYDENKO
FEDERER QUARTER
Federer has a very nice draw, probably the easiest. His toughest match might come early if Simon wins in his 1st rounder, but Simon doesn't have the weapons to hurt Federer in a best of five and he could wind up tired from the Auckland event. Fish is the best in his portion of the bracket, but his early season form is iffy. Up top, Roddick is the seed. Monfils the other, but he has some injury concerns although he did play in Kooyong. Wawrinka is a floater here who may go deep if Monfils falters. Even though Roddick might not be tip-top just yet, have to like him with this draw. Monfils though is 5-3 against him, so that is something to watch.
PICK: FEDERER
DARKHORSE: MONFILS
BEST FIRST ROUND MATCHES
LU-SIMON
It's a repeat of a recent blowout which could mean it's competitive this time.
FISH-HANESCU
Is Fish ready? Hanescu is an asshole, but he's still capable.
KOHLSCHREIBER-KAMKE
German on German crime. They met at the US Open last year. Kohly won in 4. Interested to see if Kamke learned anything.
HARRISON-MANNARINO
Harrison was the darling of the US Open for Americans. Sad to say because he only made the 2nd round. Mannarino is a solid player on this surface. Should be a 4-5 setter.
GULBIS-BECKER
Two meatheads here should make for some interest. Gulbis is better, but not always in it mentally.
SELA-DEL POTRO
If DelPo isn't ready, this is an upset possibility.
TOMIC-CHARDY
Only because Tomic is an Aussie and Chardy is a headcase. I don't think Tomic is smart enough to win here, but Chardy is dumb enough to lose.
NALBANDIAN-HEWITT
The marquee 1st rounder. Both are playing good tennis. They have met several times with Hewitt up 3-2. No meetings since 2009. Nalbandian used to be very good here. Hewitt gets you the home crowd and should be the dog with a decent price before lines move.Comment -
Nice work !!
I think Mayer can beat Denko in the first round. And you are so right about the Lu match..
Who does Raonic play if he QF'dComment -
No clue where those qualis end up.Comment -
1.14.11: AUSSIE KOALAS
Beautiful weather for the koalas in Melbourne finally as they try to set the field of 128 for the Australian Open. Several plays that I THINK can produce.
SCHOOREL [-105]
The tall, lanky Dutch youngster looked like he was going to be the perverbial deer in the headlights in his first Grand Slam qualification match, but he rallied nicely against French vet Guez to win in three sets after being absolutely crushed 6-1 in the 1st. I THINK I like that he figured things out quickly and was able to hold his nerve in a 2nd set tie break that was a make or break moment. Couple that with his experience in Doha where he had Roger Federer on the ropes in the opening set and this kid's confidence should not be an issue. His experience on hard courts is still lacking, but he's got the ability with his long frame to use his serve to get cheap points. He draws the old pro Koubek today. Koubek is no stranger to the Aussie Open as he's made the field of 128 routinely without having to qualify. He's lost I THINK four or five straight in the 1st round in the main draw ... so spare us the wasted space little man. Schoorel continues his ATP schooling today and if he can pump his 1st serve in consistently [huge key] then he will have a shot to advance.
KOALA DEUCE
In looking at the little Koalas for the DEUCE today, I THINK Raonic is an excellent first choice. The hard serving Canadian draws Mektic who has limited play on this surface and has not fared well against big servers. If Raonic brings the heat, he should move on. Pair him with Van der Merwe. The young South African is no stranger to Challenger followers as he got hot on that tour in 2010, making three hard court finals and winning one title. His opponent, Lesnard, I can only THINK is getting this short an underdog price because he beat Marc Gicquel, a veteran ATP level player who has seen far greater days. Otherwise, Lesnard is a smallish player who hadn't played on this surface in two years until playing qualis in Brisbane and here in Melbourne. He's one of those guys who is going to try and run down all the shots and fristrate an opponent. Van der Merwe has the power serve to equalize that. His main focus needs to be consistency from game to game and serve to serve. If he has that, I THINK the South African has the goods to go on in qualis. Parlay at +115.
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AUSTRALIAN OPEN WOMEN'S DRAW
WOZNIACKI QUARTER
Wozniacki has a brutal draw IMO opinion. In her portion alone, she has Bartoli, Wickmayer and Cibulkova looming as early as the 3rd round. I think it is going to be very interesting to see if Wozniacki elevates her game and is able to get through his mine field. Down low, more trouble. Henin along with Schiavone as the seed and Kuznetsova. Schiavone could be set up for a mini-run with a weak draw, but her game doesn't excite me on this surface. I love Henin in this portion. She looked strong in her matches to start the year and I think she's hear to make a mark, especially after making the final here last year. Wickmayer is one to watch. She's bust or boom here. Difficult opener with Groth, but if she makes it past here ... keep an eye out, she could make a deep run.
PICK: HENIN
DARKHORSE: WICKMAYER
VENUS QUARTER
Venus was given the favor of a soft draw to the 4th round, so in spite of her alleged decline and all that, she has a shot to go deep. Sharapova is the other big name in this half of the quarter. She's got some tougher outs including Vesnina, Goerges and Kanepi potentially. If Sharapova finds her comfort level though, she could emerge as a quarterfinalist. Down bottom, it's Azarenka as the seed. She's got a pretty cake draw to the 3rd round. Na Li looms in the other half along with Rezai as the top threats. Li's win against Clijsters will have her on everyone's radar as a darkhorse and she's done well here before. If Azarenka is ever going to do something at a Slam, this is her time. There shouldn't measurable heat worries here early and there is no Serena Williams to be her.
PICK: AZARENKA
DARKHORSE: VENUS [ONLY BECAUSE SHE'S ALWAYS DOUBTED NOT BY SEED]
CLIJSTERS QUARTER
Clijsters will have to regroup after a physical tournament that saw her drop her first hard court final since her return. Although the name on paper says it will be tough, she has Safina in her opener and Safina looks as clueless as ever. She does have Petrova and Ivanovic in this part of the draw. Not east, but workable as Petrova comes in with shit for form and Ivanovic is working with an ankle knock. Up top, it's Jankovic. For ****'s sake, JJ, just keep sliding down the ladder. Radwanska is a seed here as well along with two solid darkhorses Dulgheru and Kleybanova. Don't expect the name you think to come out of this half of the bracket. Clijsters has never failed to make the semis in Melbourne.
PICK: CLIJSTERS
DARKHORSE: KLEYBANOVA
ZVONAREVA QUARTER
Ah fair Vera, always a brides maid, never a bride. She's shown consistency in making two straight Slam finals so she cannot be discounted. She's got a little bit of a tricky draw with Kirilenko and Pavlyuchenkova around - but her experience is the X factor over both those gals. Watch out for the young Russian Pavlyuchenkova though, some day soon she is going to break through in a Slam - likely on hard courts. Up top, it's Stosur as the seed. Peer, Pennetta, Kvitova all stick in here as seeds too. I think you could throw those names in a blender and maybe pick a winner. Stosur will be a sheik pick in her part of the draw because of the home country ties, but she's played like shit to start 2011. She's also never done much here. Look out for Kvitova here. She won a tournament already this year and finally has herself in position for a good draw. She may face Stosur in the 3rd, but if she gets past her - she could be a big time surprise like she was at Wimbledon.
PICK: KVITOVA
DARKHORSE: KVITOVA
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Personally I like LI, so count me among the masses..I hope fatigue wont be a factor though..She has venus as the top seed in her draw(who she beat last year)
I've been burned with azarenka so many dam times I dont have the balls to bet her again!Comment -
I agree with you on this, Beefcake. I think Li has improved a lot mentally and she always does well in Australia. Venus is done.Comment -
ATP AUCKLAND FINAL: MAD MATH PLAY
NALBANDIAN IN 3: +304
FERRER IN 3: +414
My favorite, the MAD MATH formula. These are plays that I like trying when I THINK a match may wind up going three sets. In this case, the price for this match to end in three sets without picking a winner is +136. However, if you take the same price on both players to win in three sets, you gain either +204 or +314 with a win. Both obviously better than the listed price for the match in general ending in three sets. These two are very familiar with each other. Nalbandian definitely has the edge on this surface, but he has to adjust his play from preparing for power to finesse. Nalbandian beat up on Isner and Almagro who both possess big serves. Ferrer, does not, but he does possess speed and defense. I don't THINK either man is going to tank here as both will have sufficient recovery time for their 1st round Australian Open matches. Nalbandian should use this as a tune-up to an effect with Hewitt on tap, while Ferrer will simply be looking to keep his form intact. Half a unit on each. If either won wins in three, profit is taken. If not, one unit lost.
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I stand corrected. Think Fat Dave tanked after he got beat down in the 1st set. Barely over an hour on court. Oh well. Schoorel wins. Parlay wins.Comment -
Yes!!!!
Lots of other qualies coming up...Might there be a diamond in the rough for the late matches?Comment -
This might be a dartboard shot,but an Aussie chick named Holland is playing Rus, and they stuck them on the show court, could be a little bit more of a home edge here to make it worth a .25 unit or so just for habitual action junkies like myself.Comment -
MILLOT [-105]
Millot against the Canadian, Polansky. Polasnky was good enough through the first two rounds of qualis. Many will be apt to back him based on his US Open qualification run in 2010. Millot though is very much, an in-form player. The Frenchman won a Challenger hard court title to start 2011 and has been solid through two round in Melbourne qualis. Polasnky's record vs. lefties is a little troublesome here as he is 2-3 on the ATP level, but 2-11 in his Challenger career vs. southpaws. I THINK I'll take the shot with form and not perceived past glory on the Canadian.
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Millot wins EZ. Boo ya. Back for more Koalas tomorrow.
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Nice one, this is going to be a kick ass tennis year!Comment -
1.15.11: AUSSIE KOALAS
KOALA DEUCE
When looking at the remaining players fighting for a spot in the main draw, two stuck out to me as potentials for today's DEUCE. Start with a match-up of two talented youngsters. Dimitrov and Schoorel. Schoorel is similar to de Bakker, a tall, lanky Dutch player who can use his serve to get cheap points on this surface. Schoorel has fought hard on this unfamiliar surface to make it to this point. The problem I see for him today is that Dimitrov is a notch better on this surface, even at a younger age. Dimitrov has a few hard court Challenger titles to his credit and is a solid, all-around talent. He has yet to be broken this week, while Schoorel has been broken seven times. I don't think Schoorel can win this if Dimitrov serves as well as he has in qualis this week. First serve is huge here for both as they both need to get 1st serves in consistently to have a shot. One of these two will make their first Grand Slam today and I THINK it's Dimitrov. Pair him with Raonic. The hard serving Canadian cruised yesterday in straights and draws a tough out in Andrej Martin. Martin is still raw on this surface with just 26 matches to his credit, but he is 17-9. However, he is without a quality scalp. Raonic has the experience edge, making a Challenger final last year on this surface, winning in an ATP level main draw and making the US Open field of 128. Serves will again be big here, but for me, Raonic has shown the be the better in that category and I THINK if he can earn cheap points again with it, he makes the Aussie Open main draw. Parlay at +120.Comment -
You read my friggin mind man. Lets do it!!Comment -
FALCONI [+100]
The young American, the #1 college player in the USA is making her bid for her second straight main draw at a Grand Slam after making the US Open main draw. Falconi has proven to be very solid on hard courts in her young career on the ITF level mainly. She has an experience edge over her opponent today, Zarina Diyas. Diyas has just 21 career outdoor hard court matches with a good 13-8 mark, but many of those have come in her home country of Kazhikstan. Her serve this week has been good enough and she's done well converting break opps, while saving most of her own. Falconi had a little tougher time yesterday after crushing her opener in qualis. In the end, I THINK I like someone who has been in this position before and knows what it takes to win that last quali to make a main draw of a Grand Slam. Should be a tight match.
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Price has dipped on Dimitrov, so the parlay payout now at +120 from -104 earlier. Hoping this is the market evening out. Dimitrov was mostly -200 to -215 and then got pounded to -250, now -175. We shall see.Comment -
Parlay looking shot. Raonic trying to battle back from a set down. Dimitrov blew a 5-3 lead in the tie break and is also down a set.Comment -
Well Raonic just dominated the 2nd set tie break 7-0. That one goes to a 3rd set. Dimitrov on-serve with Schoorel at 3-3 in the 2nd.Comment
