EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

[EaglesPhan36]

I didn't like either side in that Ljubicic-Stakhovsky match. Ljubicic didn't look great last week and Stakhovsky hasn't done much on this surface to warrant being backed. To each his own on the money thing. Unless there is a massive move on one player, I don't normally read a ton into it.

I'm not willing to back Tsonga until I see him play. Read too much about possible nagging injuries or lack of fitness again late in the Aussie Open to want to lose money if he shows up lame. Dimitrov is fully capable of beating him if Tsonga isn't 100% into this physically or mentally.

Nieminen serving for the match.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nieminen

[rickosu]

nice call man. good to see you're turning it around today. it's all up from here imo!

fwiw i tailed ya and also have him 100-1 to win the tourney

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks. I'm at least hitting some dogs so far this week which makes things okay if you can at least finish .500. I sprinkled a little on Tsonga-Dimitrov Over 22 just for shits and giggles from the Nieminen winnings while I wait for Gulbis-de Bakker. I'll be surprised if Tsonga rolls Dimitrov. So there should be some tight sets even if Tsonga wins because he'll likely just try to power his serve in and hope to win late in sets. Dimitrov though is pretty strong on serve on this surface. Should be interesting.

[sharlataans]

Nieminen

Good call!

[Mikail]

Nice call on Nieminen.

[EaglesPhan36]

Gulbis withdrew. Total bet voided.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP SAN JOSE: BERANKIS -125
Berankis draws Becker on the indoor surface. Good spot here for the youngster who I THINK is set to ascend the ATP rankings as the year progresses. He played this tournament last year and made a somewhat surprising run to the QFs then. He's had good success on the Challenger level as well on this surface. Becker for his game has disappointing results on this surface. He has played this tournament several times with average results. I THINK this is the type of match Berankis needs to win if he's going to become a full-time, ATP level player.

[beefcake]

Free win for me in the tourney with Gulbis quitting. Whoo hoo!
Tailed on the fin...Great call!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Guccione withdrew I think from Caloundra also. Was worth a shot that he'd show up and retire.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP COSTA DO SAUIPE: MAYER +160
Why not Mayer today? Leo ran through qualis in good shape and showed some solid pop on his serve which leads me to believe the back issue he dealt with last week is not troublesome at the moment. Andreev is certainly capable on clay, but I THINK when Mayer is "right" his serve is a huge weapon that can give him a chance today. With some match-time from qualis under his belt, I'm going to rate Mayer a shot to pull the upset today if he serves well.

[757sFinest]

• 2/8/2011 2:00 PM ATP Tennis 122 Richard Berankis* -142 vs Benjamin Becker
• 2/8/2011 6:30 PM ATP Tennis 325 Tommy Robredo* -170 vs Fabio Fognini
• 2/8/2011 5:00 PM ATP Doubles Tennis 151 L.Hewitt/F.Verdasco* +100 vs E.Butorac/J-J.Rojer
• 2/8/2011 1:30 PM Challenger Tennis 724 Karol Beck* -215 vs Jurgen Zop

Any thoughts on my parlay ticket EP?

[EaglesPhan36]

Don't like that doubles play just because Hewitt-Verdasco don't play them much and haven't teamed together to my recollection. Butorac-Rojer are a quality team. Think Verdasco-Hewitt would have to serve lights out and win late in the sets - tie breaks likely. Others look like they should have solid shots.

[757sFinest]

Thanks for the feedback. Much appreciated! Been following your thread for a a while now, thanks for your help.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks. Doubles are tough to predict sometimes, but I usually side with experience over inexperience. Doesn't always work, but I think when you've got guys who play together a lot against guys who rarely play doubles and haven't played together ... probably good to go against it.

[Mikail]

I have Del Potro as the last leg of a profitable parlay and wanted to know if it should be hedged. I understand Gabashvili is a very erratic player but on a good day can beat the best of them. Hedge worthy?

[EaglesPhan36]

I'd probably let it ride. DelPo's biggest problems in working back will be consistency and fitness. In a best of 3, the fitness in a 1st round match probably won't be a big deal. Looking at Gabashvili's results on this surface, doesn't really indicate he will do much unless he happens to be out of his mind and DelPo plays very poorly.

[beefcake]

Ep, please tell me your all over Llodra tomorrow? I think when you get these big servers in indoor courts over the course of the year you would come out ahead..

[EaglesPhan36]

I picked him into the semis for our contest, so I do think he can win. I see he's about +200 at Pinnacle. Will wait and see where he is later. If you give me Llodra +3, I'll bang that shit. This one looks like it'll be 7-5, 7-6 type of sets if the past is any indication.

[EaglesPhan36]

SAN JOSE DOUBLES: BUTORAC-ROJER -130
The experienced duo draws the first time pairing of Hewitt-Verdasco. Butorac-Rojer showed well at the Australian Open, making the semis and falling to the eventual Champs, the Bryans. Butorac has won this San Jose title before, back in 2007 with Jamie Murray. Rojer was here last year with Brunstrom and lost in the QFs. This experienced duo won two titles last year, one on this indoor surface and another on an outdoor hard court. They also made the LA finals. Hewitt & Verdasco both only play a handful of doubles matches per year with Verdasco playing more. Verdasco had teamed up with Feliciano Lopez exclisvely for the past two years with one memorable QF run at the 2009 Aussie Open and not much else to write home about. Hewitt hasn't played doubles since a Davis Cup playoff last September. He played a few tournaments and had his best results with doubles vet Knowles during the clay season last Spring in Barcelona. I think Hewitt or Verdasco could be a useful doubles partner with someone accustomed to playing doubles - but together, I THINK they are outclassed here. Their best bet here is going to be trying to get easy service games and hope perhaps to steal a set late if Butorac-Rojer falter. They might push this duo for a bit, but I THINK the experience edge of the normal doubles partners is the way I am going here.

[EaglesPhan36]

Atta boy Berankis.

[757sFinest]

Pending3 Team Parlay




Win2/8/11 2:00pm ATP Tennis 122 Richard Berankis -145* vs Benjamin Becker




Pending2/8/11 6:30pm ATP Tennis 325 Tommy Robredo -165* vs Fabio Fognini




Pending2/8/11 5:00pm ATP Doubles Tennis 152 E.Butorac/J-J.Rojer -130* vs L.Hewitt/F.Verdasco

[EaglesPhan36]

Hopefully the doubles play is the right side, so I don't feel like a dolt.

[EmpireMaker]

EP any thoughts/opinions on Tommy Robredo vs Fabio Fognini ?

[757sFinest]

Hopefully the doubles play is the right side, so I don't feel like a dolt.

ditto

[Dirk41]

Querrey

ATP - Men's Singles - SAP Open, San Jose USA
Querrey, S -275
Lacko, L +200

Would you guys consider Sam to be a lock tonight? I know he is four inches taller than Lacko, and serving indoors will help him a lot too. What do you guys think?

[757sFinest]

How about Raonic. Not bad! No such thing as a lock but I think he wins it. Why hasn't the doubles match started?

[757sFinest]

You think I shoujld hedge robredo

[rumple]

Good job Mayer choking away serving for match!

[EaglesPhan36]

Mayer comes back and wins in the tie break. Sweet.

[Brian891]

any feelings or leans on querrey?

[757sFinest]

Robredo looking good. Looks like I'm gonna hit!

[Mikail]

I'd probably let it ride. DelPo's biggest problems in working back will be consistency and fitness. In a best of 3, the fitness in a 1st round match probably won't be a big deal. Looking at Gabashvili's results on this surface, doesn't really indicate he will do much unless he happens to be out of his mind and DelPo plays very poorly.

Thanks EP Line has held firm. Del Potro -490/ Gabashvili +390 Most likely gonna let it ride or just hedge a little to make it a non losing proposition. I do feel confident in Del Potro here but what do we know right. LOL

[Dirk41]

Congrats on that parlay!

I found a good site in HD covering the SAP Open if anybody wants to catch the matches.

http://veetle.com/index.php/channel/view#4d3dde6e03a67

[757sFinest]

Congrats on that parlay!

I found a good site in HD covering the SAP Open if anybody wants to catch the matches.

http://veetle.com/index.php/channel/view#4d3dde6e03a67

Thanks Dirk! Big THANKS to EP, you the man. A lot of great info in this thread. Keep doing what you do!!